Climate worst-case scenarios may not go far enough, cloud data shows

[marmar]

(Guardian UK) Worst-case global heating scenarios may need to be revised upwards in light of a better understanding of the role of clouds, scientists have said.

Recent modelling data suggests the climate is considerably more sensitive to carbon emissions than previously believed, and experts said the projections had the potential to be “incredibly alarming”, though they stressed further research would be needed to validate the new numbers.

Modelling results from more than 20 institutions are being compiled for the sixth assessment by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is due to be released next year.

Compared with the last assessment in 2014, 25% of them show a sharp upward shift from 3C to 5C in climate sensitivity – the amount of warming projected from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide from the preindustrial level of 280 parts per million. This has shocked many veteran observers, because assumptions about climate sensitivity have been relatively unchanged since the 1980s. ..............(more)

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/13/climate-worst-case-scenarios-clouds-scientists-global-heating

[greenman3610]

1. caution: Leading scientists not convinced on this

Mike Mann, Gavin Schmidt of NASA, and Andrew Dessler of Texas A&M have all been cool on this via twitter

Link to tweet

?s=20

[NickB79]

2. This was being discussed months ago

And it's not just one model. Multiple models from multiple organizations are running hot. All point to cloud sensitivity.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-02-03/climate-models-are-running-red-hot-and-scientists-don-t-know-why