How low will it go?

[XemaSab]

2 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	2.59 is the bottom; the ice will start growing now
	0 (0%)
	Between 2.40 and 2.58
	0 (0%)
	Between 2.20 and 2.39
	2 (100%)
	Between 2.00 and 2.19
	0 (0%)
	Between 1.80 and 1.99
	0 (0%)
	Between 1.60 and 1.79
	0 (0%)
	Between 1.00 and 1.59
	0 (0%)
	Below 1.00
	0 (0%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
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[GliderGuider]

1. In the last 10 days it's gone down about 0.35, and the curve is beginning to flatten

So I think we've only got about 0.3 at most to go. That would put it at about 2.3 or so.

Half a million or more square kilometers below the previous low. Whooee!

[XemaSab]

2. It's flattening for sure

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

but there's still room there for a decrease.

[GliderGuider]

3. I took the raw CT area data and did a bit of Excel curve fitting

Last edited Mon Sep 3, 2012, 04:41 PM - Edit history (2)

A 3rd order polynomial seems to track the last half-cycle quite well (r^2 = 0.9985), and shows a bottom in one week at about 2.31 +/- 0.05. That matches what my Eyeball Mk I Enhanced is telling me.

ETA: The same machinations with the IJIS extent data (using a 4th order poly) shows a bottom in ten days at about 3.35 million km^2. From eyeballing the trendline compared to recent changes that looks to me like the low end, so I'd bet on a bottom of about 3.45. The current IJIS extent is 3.68. If it bottoms out at 3.45 that would be a loss of about 20% from the previous record low in 2007.

[XemaSab]

4. AUGH! MATH!

[GliderGuider]

5. Hey, at least it's not New Math!

[joshcryer]

9. You've convinced me my vote was wrong.

But I won't change it just because.

[GliderGuider]

11. So far the bottom for CT area is September 9 at 2.294

My estimated range was 2.26 to 2.36, one week from September 3.

Even a blind pig finds an acorn every once in a while...

OTOH, I think the IJIS extent may have bottomed out earlier than I expected at around 3.67, so I missed that one by a bit.

[RobertEarl]

6. Nukie idea to fix this problem

Build a bunch of new nuke power plants and use the electricity to power ice makers in the arctic.

Since nuke plants don't add any extra heat to the atmosphere (they say!) it is the perfect fix.

Then we can all just go about taking from the planet in all our other ways!

[GliderGuider]

7. I've never heard any of them actually propose this.

Sarcasm, perhaps?

IIRC, there was/is a proposal to use nukes in the Alberta tar sands for SAGD extraction, also to power refrigeration compressors to create ice walls in the permafrost around extraction sites.

There is nothing that nukes can be used for that would be helpful in getting us out of the Clusterfuck.

[Nihil]

10. Not so much "sarcasm" as sheer bitter stupidity.

Other than your kind "benefit of the doubt" to that poster, I agree with you.

The tar sands proposals were particularly stupid & suicidal but that seems
par for the course considering that the concept of boiling sediments to extract
nearly useless petrochemicals in order to f*ck up the planet even more has
been labelled not only "profitable" but "economically desirable".

[joshcryer]

8. Erm, you'd need several hundred thousand of them.

And they do contribute waste heat, so you'd need plants that were 50% efficient, which none are currently.

[GliderGuider]

12. Is anyone else ready to call the bottom?

I suspect we hit it two days ago at 2.234 million km^2. We've now had 46 consecutive days with an anomaly below 2 million km^2, with many more to come.

We should all take a moment to congratulate ourselves on helping to reaching such an historic milestone. Without all of us driving, flying and consuming together, this unprecedented achievement would never have been possible. What a team!!!


Tool Monkeys, fuck yeah!!!

[XemaSab]

13. What's the weather looking like up there?

[phantom power]

15. Seems like it's the bottom, but I keep feeling the need to wait...

just because it looks so damned weird up there.

[GliderGuider]

16. I'm just an impulse bottom-caller.

We should be sure by December. OTOH, this year you just don't know anything for sure.

[GliderGuider]

14. Sept 19 anomaly is now the 6th lowest on record

2.582 today, and the lowest is the 2007 value of 2.635 - we are within 0.053 of a new anomaly record.

As a wise woman said to me, if a seagull craps on an ice floe up there we'll set another low for the year.

This is so exciting - it's like waking up at Christmas to find pony shit in the living room!