2 new reports: 2012 electric vehicle industry will be very much alive and growing

[txlibdem]

Contrary to those who say the electric vehicle will fade away, EVs in 2012 will enjoy their biggest sales yet: 250,000 electric vehicles expected to be sold worldwide. The linked article continues to predict that workplace chargers will be installed in large numbers to encourage existing employees to get an EV.

According to new reports from Next10 and Pike Research, the electric vehicle industry is alive, particularly in California, and growing. In 2012, carmakers will introduce a variety of models – from Toyota's Prius Plug-in Hybrid to Tesla's Model S and Ford's Focus EV – that will make electric vehicles more accessible and affordable, increasing sales.

"With the evolution of any new industry, there are going to be fits and starts and winners and losers. It is not going to be a straight hockey stick up to success," said Noel Perry, founder of the advocacy organization Next10. "Our report… points to continued research and investment into electric vehicles."

In "Powering Innovation," Next10 reports that California leads the United States in vehicle electrification. California ranks first in venture capital investment in electric vehicle-related technologies, first in electric vehicle-related patents and first in electric vehicle charging stations per capita. In the first half of 2011, California attracted nearly 70% of global venture investment in electric vehicle-related companies.

...

In "EVs: Ten Predictions for 2012," Pike Research forecasts that new models and increased sales will put an end to the "are EVs for real" speculation. [font color=#FF0000]Pike Research predicts that more than a quarter-million plug-in electric vehicles will be sold in 2012[/font] – but at "prices that will continue to disappoint (and exclude) many consumers."

Links and more info at:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/yonicohen/2012/01/03/darkest-before-dawn-electric-vehicles-in-2012-and-beyond/

[OKIsItJustMe]

1. I hope they’re right

However, the Next 10 piece, http://www.next10.org/next10/pdf/EV%20Report_2011_final.pdf does not appear to be a market research piece so much as it is a cheerleader for California’s EV program.

[font face=Times,Times New Roman,Serif]…

[font size=5]CONCLUSION[/font]

[font size=3]California is a global leader in technology innovation in the electric vehicle industry. The state is home to a diverse and growing business base that has continued to grow its workforce over the recession. With its population of early adopters, advanced technology industries, public policy leadership and research institutions, California is well positioned to lead the way for the U.S. to achieve cleaner transportation and to reap the economic rewards as a market leader in this growing arena. Further, the state’s mild climate make it the perfect test bed for the continued development of technology related to EVs so that with time, they will become more viable in other places with colder temperatures (and therefore greater energy requirements).

…

What it takes now is acceleration of innovative efforts in public policy, community action, and research and development to help drive the growth in viable businesses and new jobs in the EV arena. Will our current public policymakers continue to drive California’s legacy for breakthrough policy action? Will our population of early adopters of technology help drive demand and grow the electric vehicle markets? Will the state’s creative entrepreneurs find the conditions and financing they need to build new viable businesses related to the diverse field of electric vehicles?

…[/font][/font]

[txlibdem]

2. Remember that the first VCR cost $5000, now we can buy a far superior VCR for $20

But you won't even want to because video technology has moved so far ahead of the VCR that nobody (pretty much) even wants one anymore.

Then the first DVD player came out... and it was as expensive as my monthly paycheck at the time as I recall. Then they improved it, added tons of innovations to it, and made it cost far less. Today you can get a very cheap DVD player. But you don't want one because now there is BluRay and online streaming video services such as HULU and Netflix, etc...

The same will happen with the electric car, solar panels, wind turbines, etc., so that the quality goes up while the price comes down with each successive generation.

[OKIsItJustMe]

3. There are limits to this

A VCR or DVD player requires many fewer raw materials than an automobile, especially an automobile with a large storage battery.

[txlibdem]

4. Mass production brings costs down, quality up and brings product improvements over time

That is undeniable.

Nissan will soon start up production at their Smyrna, Tennessee production plant making 200,000 electric vehicles each year.

That's just one company. In 2012 we'll have double the number of choices as well: from 3 to 6

This is going to be a great year for electric vehicles.

[OKIsItJustMe]

5. No doubt costs will come down. They already have.

However, the comparison to the VCR, DVD and such, though appealing, is misleading.

For example, it is questionable whether the initial cost of a battery electric vehicle will ever be less than the cost of an internal combustion engine vehicle, with the key cost difference being the power train. (The BEV has an electric motor and large “traction battery,” an ICEV has the engine, transmission and fuel tank.)

Even if the cost of the traction battery were to become zero (which it won’t) the cost of the rest of the car will not.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle_battery#Battery_cost_and_parity

[font face=Times, Serif]…
[font size=5]Battery cost and parity[/font]

[font size=3]The cost of the battery when distributed over the life cycle of the vehicle (compared with an up to 10 years life cycle of an internal combustion engine vehicle) can easily be more than the cost of the electricity. This is because of the high initial cost relative to the life of the batteries. Using the 7000 cycle or 10 year life given in the previous section, 365 cycles per year would take 19 years to reach the 7000 cycles. Using the lower estimate of a ten year life gives 3650 cycles over ten years giving 146000 total miles driven. At $500 per kWh an 8 kWh battery costs $4000 resulting in $4000/146000 miles or $0.027 per mile. In reality a larger pack would be used to avoid stressing the battery by avoiding complete discharge or 100% charge. Adding a 2 kWh in battery adds $1000 to the cost resulting in $5000/146000 miles or $0.034/mile.

Scientists at Technical University of Denmark paid $10,000USD for a certified EV battery with 25kWh capacity, with no rebates or overprice. Two out of 15 battery producers could supply the necessary technical documents about quality and fire safety. Estimated time is 10 years before battery price comes down to 1/3 of present. Battery professor Poul Norby states that lithium batteries will need to double their energy density and bring down the price from $500 (2010) to $100 per kWh capacity in order to make an impact on petrol cars.

…[/font][/font]

[txlibdem]

6. Using old data does not prove your point

Nissan is on record as stating their battery costs $9000 per vehicle with mass production, about $270 per kWh.

[OKIsItJustMe]

7. Great! So costs continue to come down!

$9,000 for a battery, or, $11,000 for an entire car.
http://www.nissanusa.com/versa-sedan/?intcmp=Versa_Sedan.vlp.Homepage.Home.P1

[kristopher]

8. How do you account for the residual value of a battery?

The EV batteries are not worthless once they are removed from an automobile, they are just less valuable for mobile applications. That 25 kwh capacity battery would be replaced once it drops to 80% of its original capacity, so it will still be a superb 20 kwh storage device for fixed use.
It is also important to note two things; that the "lifespan" of the batteries discussed is the lifespan for use in an automotive application, and that the 10 years mentioned is a lower boundary which has been wildly exceeded by several announced chemistries (the wiki article mentions one at 40 years)


Your calculations fail to take that value into account. What happens when you do?

[OKIsItJustMe]

11. It really doesn’t matter

As I’ve said before, there was great consumer resistance to early CFL’s, even though over the long-term they were less expensive than conventional incandescent light bulbs.

Even today, when the price of CFL’s has been lowered tremendously, there is consumer resistance (not just for price, but for other reasons as well.)

If a BEV costs a good deal more than an ICEV there will be continued consumer resistance (especially since, currently, the range is quite significantly constrained.)

[kristopher]

12. It matters a great deal.

Your arguments about electric vehicles are becoming increasingly removed from reality.
Your statement is like saying that trade-in on a 2 year old vehicle should not be a factor when considering the cost of ownership. Your use of it after having it brought to your attention indicates either a lack of knowledge that renders your opinion meaningless or an attempt to mislead.

[OKIsItJustMe]

14. Removed from reality…

Here’s reality.

[kristopher]

15. Like I said, removed from reality.

That has absolutely nothing to say about the effect of the residual value of EV batteries. You were going on a financial analysis that reduced the cost of ownership for battery electric vehicles to $0.27/mile, remember? Unless you factor in the residual value of the batteries then your analysis is, simply and bluntly put, bullshit.

It is lines of argumentation like this that promote the impression that you have a bias against battery electric vehicles. Your outrage that such bias is considered relevant to the validity of your posts is noted in advance.

[OKIsItJustMe]

17. Reality

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/1_million_electric_vehicles_rpt.pdf

[font face=Times, Serif][font size=5]One Million Electric Vehicles By 2015[/font]
[font size=4]February 2011 Status Report[/font]
[font size=3]…

Estimated U.S. Supply of Electric Vehicles from 2011 through 2015

GM Chevrolet Volt | 15,000 (2011) | 120,000 (2012)
Nissan LEAF EV | 25,000 (2011) | 25,000 (2012)
…[/font][/font]

Those are the projected figures… do you think reality will match up better in 2012 than it did in 2011?

Have fun! I’m done.

[kristopher]

19. Of course you're done.

You based your argument on this:
" At $500 per kWh an 8 kWh battery costs $4000 resulting in $4000/146000 miles or $0.027 per mile. In reality a larger pack would be used to avoid stressing the battery by avoiding complete discharge or 100% charge. Adding a 2 kWh in battery adds $1000 to the cost resulting in $5000/146000 miles or $0.034/mile.

That does not include the obviously high residual value of used EV batteries; which means the numbers are invalid - in fact, wildly invalid.

You could just admit that point is legitimate, but instead you dissemble and then to go off in a huff.


BTW your most recent cite includes this:
"In 2010, the U.S. economy continued recovery from recession. As part of that recovery, sales of U.S. light-duty vehicles rebounded to approximately 12 million in 2010 from less than 10 million in 2009. Historically, U.S. sales of new light duty passenger vehicles ranged from 15-16 million per year from 2005-2008.2

Conventional hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been on sale in the U.S. for over ten years, and today sales have grown to almost three percent of total light-duty vehicles. Over 1.6 million HEVs have been sold over the past six years.3

To reach the one million vehicle goal, EVs will need to average just under 1.7 percent of sales through 2015 (assuming sales of 12 million light- duty vehicles per year)."
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/1_million_electric_vehicles_rpt.pdf

Trying to predict the end result from the first year, as you have done, is an odd, odd exercise to engage in.

[txlibdem]

9. Compare comparably equipped cars please

You're not getting Nav, Sirius Radio, heated and cooled seats, etc., for $11,000. Don't play that BS game of comparing a stripped down model to a fully equipped electric vehicle.

The real question is: can you even GET a Versa that comes with everything included with the Leaf? Answer: NO, a lot of it is not even offered.

Failed comparison.

[OKIsItJustMe]

10. Does Nissan sell an EV for 11,000?

No. (Why not? Because they can’t.)

How much do all of those additional features cost? Really? ($20,000?)

Let’s see… I can get a “Tom Tom” for less than $100.
Heated and cooled seats? About $200 http://www.sportsimportsltd.com/seatvenheats.html .

Those “sweeteners” are added on, to help you rationalize the additional cost.

[txlibdem]

13. So what? You can't buy a BMW for $11,000 either.

[OKIsItJustMe]

16. So, then, you’re saying that a BEV is a luxury item?

If they are going to have any significant ecological impact, they will need to stop being niche products…

[txlibdem]

18. You say that like it's a bad thing. This is the FIRST YEAR they've been available to buy.

As we see with the example of the VCR... nobody could afford a $5000 VCR back then (even now it'd be reserved for the very few). In 1983 my brother borrowed $500 from me so he could buy a used VCR from a friend for $750. I thought he was insane paying that kind of money but I lent it to him anyway. That's luxury item category even today for most poor and middle income folks. Electric vehicles will follow the same path: starting off at higher cost than they will after a few years of mass production. This is not a surprise to anyone.

The only difference: you can lease a Volt or a Leaf and pay to "fuel" them for less than a comparably equipped ICE vehicle.

Next year we'll see mass production of the Leaf and higher production of the Volt, the introduction of new EVs from Ford, Smart, Mitsubishi, and maybe VW. All of these will ramp up their production as much as they can... and lower their prices over the years as much as they can.

[OKIsItJustMe]

20. This is not the first year of sales for EV’s, merely the first year of sales for 2 models

Historically, why did people stop buying electric vehicles?
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/avta/light_duty/fsev/fsev_history.html

[font face=Times, Serif][font size=3]…

The decline of the electric vehicle was brought about by several major developments:

• By the 1920s, America had a better system of roads that now connected cities, bringing with it the need for longer-range vehicles.
• The discovery of Texas crude oil reduced the price of gasoline so that it was affordable to the average consumer.
• The invention of the electric starter by Charles Kettering in 1912 eliminated the need for the hand crank.
• The initiation of mass production of internal combustion engine vehicles by Henry Ford made these vehicles widely available and affordable in the $500 to $1,000 price range. By contrast, the price of the less efficiently produced electric vehicles continued to rise. In 1912, an electric roadster sold for $1,750, while a gasoline car sold for $650.

…[/font][/font]

This is instructive for the success of today’s EV’s.

• Consumers are concerned about the (relatively) short range of EV’s. (Yes, yes, I know… many days I wouldn’t need an EV to go more than a few miles. We’re talking about perception here.)
• Gasoline, while more expensive than it has been, is not expensive enough to stop people from buying SUV’s,
  http://news.google.com?q=SUV%20sales
  …with the exception of Ford’s hybrid SUV…
  http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/01/09/bloomberg_articlesLXJ9E86TTDSG.DTL
  

  "The reason people don't buy hybrids in volume is mainly the price," Marakby said in a Jan. 5 interview. "Customers tell us they'd be willing to pay a price premium of a couple thousand dollars, so we know we still have room to work to bring it down."

• ICEV’s are generally seen as more convenient (e.g. you don’t need to plug them in every night, just swing through a gas station periodically.)
• ICEV’s are less expensive than EV’s.

[txlibdem]

21. 2011 was the first year that major manufacturers had electric vehicles for sale and/or lease

In THIS century that is.

[OKIsItJustMe]

22. The question is

Have market conditions changed sufficiently to make them more of a success today? (Major manufactures didn’t think so in 1999.)

Tesla Motors had the courage to say, “Yes!” (thanks to Lithium-ion cells) and spurred major manufacturers to reexamine the market.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/21/autos/tesla_roadster_selling_out/index.htm

[font face=Times, Serif][font size=5]Tesla Roadster reaches the end of the line[/font]
By Peter Valdes-Dapena, senior writer June 22, 2011: 9:50 AM ET


[font size=1]The Tesla Roadster has generated far more conversations than sales, but Tesla hopes to sell far more of the upcoming Model S sedan.[/font]

[font size=3]NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The road is coming to an end for the Tesla Roadster.

Automaker Tesla Motors (TSLA) will stop taking orders for the car in the U.S. in about two months as the carmaker focuses on its Model S electric sedan.

…

The first sales of the Model S sedan are expected to begin around the middle of 2012.

At a starting price of about $58,000, the base model will have a driving range of 160 miles, Tesla said, but buyers will be able to pay more for versions with larger battery packs and longer driving ranges. The first ones sold will have an estimated driving range of 300 miles with a price tag closer to $80,000.

…[/font][/font]

Ow! At that price, I don’t think the Model S will sell much better than the Roadster did. (I may be wrong.)

[txlibdem]

23. Different vehicles are aimed at different market segments

There's no mystery or conspiracy here. The Maybach is not aimed at the market segment that can only afford a Kia or a stripped down Versa.

[OKIsItJustMe]

24. The question is

When will there be an EV “aimed at the market segment that can only afford a Kia or a stripped down Versa?”

[txlibdem]

25. Ok, please tell us when

We're dying to know.

[OKIsItJustMe]

26. I question whether there will ever be one

There needs to be one if we are going to electrify our fleet.

Here are the top 10 selling cars of 2011:


The Camry sells for about what a Prius does, get’s significantly worse gas mileage, but outsold the Prius about 2 to 1.
The Altima sells for about what a LEAF does, and outsold it about 25 to 1.
The conventional Fusion sells for significantly less than the Fusion hybrid and outsold it about 25 to 1.
The Chevy Cruze, like the Chevy Volt is a new model. Of course, the Cruze is far less expensive, and far outsold the Volt.

[txlibdem]

28. All of those vehicles MSRP are in the high 20's to 30's k dollars, RAM pickups typically are 40k

So what is your point with this numbered list? That electric vehicles, which planned low production numbers and (by and large) met them despite a global economic meltdown and furthering economic crises worldwide, are not as popular as a Camry??? My question to you is... so what?

F-series, Silverado, Ram Pickups... this is the same market segment as a buyer of an electric vehicle? Ahhhh... NO.

The Chevy Cruze is a new model based on a 100 year old concept: gasoline engine and 4 tires. That it outsold the Volt has to do with cost, yes, but also production numbers and an aggressive ad campaign waged by GM for the Cruze. It's a good car, don't get me wrong. But don't confuse and attempt to jumble different market segments in order to make some kind of odd point.

[dmallind]

27. Does the Versa go for 70-100 miles on less than the cost of a gallon of gas?

98000 mile breakeven for a compatably equipped car. Every charge-up saves you $6+ against even an economical car in gas alone. Paying about $10k more upfront saves the same or more on gas and maintenance over the likely lifetime of the car - and without a dime to OPEC.

[txlibdem]

29. Without a dime to OPEC -- that's the biggest reason for my pro-EV stance

No matter what source you get your electricity from, not one dime will be flowing into the hands of terrorists when you drive an electric vehicle.

Plus, the electric vehicle is the ONLY type of vehicle that will get CLEANER as it ages... as more renewable energy generation is added to the grid. Or you can save up and get solar panels on your roof (even if it's just enough to pay for the electrons that your car will use) then you'll know that you're driving for free!