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GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 07:21 PM Mar 2013

Imagine all the people - 80 billion people, all screwing with the planet

I updated my TF concept a bit, and got the numbers to be a bit more realistic (though not much less troubling).

Thermodynamic Footprint

By multiplying the average global TF figure by the world population, we can find the "Thermodynamic Population Equivalent" of the world over time. This value reflects both our increasing energy consumption and the growing world population. It is a measure of the increasing planetary impact of the growth in our technology, activity and numbers.



This calculation reveals the amount of damage that our technological activity is causing to the planet. This activity, driven by the energy we use in our daily lives, causes as much damage to the planetary systems we depend on as 80 billion people would if they were living in their raw human state, as hunter-gatherers.

There is potentially much more to be discovered here, but one thing jumps out at me immediately. TF seems like a very good proxy for the elusive "AT" term in the infamous I=PAT equation. By using it that way we can deduce that humanity today is having about 80 times the impact on the planet that we had 200 years ago.

We estimate that there were about 10 million people living on the planet just before the invention of agriculture between 5,000 and 8,000 years ago. Modern human civilization is today having about 8,000 times the impact on the planet as did our ancestors.
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Imagine all the people - 80 billion people, all screwing with the planet (Original Post) GliderGuider Mar 2013 OP
First problem with this argument... longship Mar 2013 #1
The only impact difference between 7 billion of us 80 billion H-G's is in the food supply. GliderGuider Mar 2013 #2
Hmm. I think I have to reject that analysis. longship Mar 2013 #3
No problem, reject away. GliderGuider Mar 2013 #4
Well, accept your 5,000 BCE data. longship Mar 2013 #5
I don't judge agriculture as either a good or a bad idea from the human POV GliderGuider Mar 2013 #7
Thank you for a very respectful dialog. longship Mar 2013 #12
Oh, I believe in science too. GliderGuider Mar 2013 #14
I get ya, and substantially agree. nt longship Mar 2013 #15
Why are you including nuclear in your footprint wtmusic Mar 2013 #6
Because all energy use contributes to planetary damage GliderGuider Mar 2013 #8
No, all energy does not "contribute to the damage" equally wtmusic Mar 2013 #9
The damage doesn't come just from CO2, but from all aspects of human activity. GliderGuider Mar 2013 #10
That's woo. wtmusic Mar 2013 #11
Let's try this again. GliderGuider Mar 2013 #13
Compared to coal, nuclear plays a minute role in air, soil, and water contamination. wtmusic Mar 2013 #17
From this point of view the sources of the energy are immaterial. GliderGuider Mar 2013 #18
OK, well that point of view is not predictive and is irrelevant to policy then. wtmusic Mar 2013 #21
Our social contacts tend to be self-selecting GliderGuider Mar 2013 #22
Social contacts? I wouldn't have any if I brought this stuff up over a beer. wtmusic Mar 2013 #23
I'm fortunate to have a partner who totally gets it. GliderGuider Mar 2013 #24
Eh, HG lifestyle, computationally, is so mediocre... joshcryer Mar 2013 #16
So they are living inside our "Game of Life" simulator? GliderGuider Mar 2013 #19
Once we deconstruct the Earth... joshcryer Mar 2013 #20

longship

(40,416 posts)
1. First problem with this argument...
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 07:32 PM
Mar 2013

There is undoubtedly no way the planet could sustain 80 billion people all as hunter gatherers. I would bet the the planet could not even sustain the current population as hunter gatherers.

I know that this is just an example, used strictly for purposes of comparison. But it comes off as a straw man argument.

I am not against the goals of the post being presented, I just find the argument silly and counterfactual.

I have heard this plea before. One of my best friends advocates for it. But to return to a non-technical, pre-agricultural world just isn't in the cards.

We need to find a different way.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
2. The only impact difference between 7 billion of us 80 billion H-G's is in the food supply.
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 07:53 PM
Mar 2013

I claim that our energy use is the damage proxy for "feeding" 73 billion phantom humans.

I'm not suggesting we go back in time. The arrow of entropy ruins only one direction, and the door behind us is closed.

However, if we are to become a sustainable presence, we must reduce our impact on the planet to 1/5000th or less of its current level. I wonder how that will happen?

longship

(40,416 posts)
3. Hmm. I think I have to reject that analysis.
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 08:11 PM
Mar 2013

Where do you get 1/5,000th?

I take it "arrow of entropy ruins" is a typo for "arrow of entropy runs".

My reading of the problem is that we can probably feed the current population with today's population with today's technology. We just do not have the social and political structures in place to get the job done.

Of course, the last thing this planet needs is further growth in human population without finding a radical alternative solution, like space colonies or something.

The bottom line is that I don't have much hope. If we continue the way we are, we'll end up destroying civilization as we know it. Then, we very well may get back to that hunter-gatherer society for which my friend advocates. He's no kooky paranoid survivalist, but he'd likely survive. I likely wouldn't. So it goes.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
4. No problem, reject away.
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 08:40 PM
Mar 2013

My "arrow of entropy ruins" typo was deliciously Freudian, I think

The 1/5000 number came from being generous. it should have been 1/8000. Since the dawn of agriculture we have added over 4 trillion person-years of excess impact (aka damage) to the planet. To find out where I got this number, integrate the area under the red curve, and backcast it to a population of 10 million in 5,000 BCE - the last time humanity was truly sustainable.

The amount of damage done to the planet by human activity is truly incomprehensible. Especially if one rejects the analysis.

longship

(40,416 posts)
5. Well, accept your 5,000 BCE data.
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 09:27 PM
Mar 2013

As a presumption.

I have a real problem with your claim that that was the last time human population was sustainable. That sounds like a pretty bold statement with a whole lot of hidden assumptions. Certainly agriculture has done a huge amount to increase productivity for the world's increasing population.

If you want to reject agriculture as a good idea, like my good friend, I am not going to be able to go along with that because we cannot go back to pre-agriculture days. Not with 8 billion people on the planet.

If you are arguing that it was a bad idea, well, maybe so. But it's too late for that, too.

The question is: What solutions do we have which are both practical and workable? How do we approach these problems short of destroying our civilization?

It's like I said to my friend, James, wringing ones hands about the evils of agriculture does not advance the dialog much if one does not have a credible path to achieve those goals.

Oh, and thanks for your replies. I find these discussions compelling, even when there's disagreement. We all learn from that.

Keep hope alive. Keep on stirring the pot, my friend.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
7. I don't judge agriculture as either a good or a bad idea from the human POV
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 10:11 PM
Mar 2013

It was simply what happened, regardless of what we feel about the consequences. From a thermodynamic perspective it was probably inevitable, as it enabled the next jump in system ordering on the planet.

From where I sit, it looks like we're caught in a trap. We of course can't go back. I've concluded that humanity literally cannot make a voluntary decision to climb back down the energy hill, because such a decision would go against the fundamental principles and driving forces of civilization. There are no practical, workable solutions in sight that will maintain human activity at its current level, let alone rate of growth, for more than a handful of years. We're drowning in our own waste, and climate change is about to bite us on the ass hard. We're having a very hard time finding enough high-density energy to keep the bus on the road, even if we accept the inevitable damage of climate change. Fracking is the symptom of this problem. Civilization's driving institutions - especially politics and economics - are showing disturbing signs of a lack of resilience. We're in very, very big trouble.

There is no way forward on this path, and there is no way back. We either need to redefine what "forward" means, in terms that don't require high-density energy throughput, or we will crash and burn within a couple of decades. Then we will go back down the energy hill, but we won't be walking down, we'll be tumbling.

Yeah, I intend to keep stirring the pot...

longship

(40,416 posts)
12. Thank you for a very respectful dialog.
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 10:56 PM
Mar 2013

A final word on my outlook. Maybe it's because of my optimism in what can happen that I believe that humans are smart and creative enough to solve these problems. Although it's not looking good right now, we could climb out of the hole we've got ourselves into.

Technology got us here and I think technology can get us out. We're smart enough to get it done, but I do not know whether we're wise enough to take the right first steps.

I like what Bill Nye (The Science Guy) says: "We don't need to do less; we need to do more with less." I firmly believe therein lies a better future.

I believe in science.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
14. Oh, I believe in science too.
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 11:21 PM
Mar 2013

It's engineering I have trouble with. People tend to lump science and engineering together, when they are in fact very different sorts of activities. Science tells us how the world works. Engineering figures out what we can do to the world.

From the perspective of anthropologist Marvin Harris, science operates in the cultural superstructure. It's in the realm of ideas, along with art, music, literature, religion etc. I don't say they're the same - they're not, by any stretch of the imagination - but they all operate on the mental level of ideas, values and beliefs.

On the other hand, engineering operates down at the level of the cultural infrastructure. That's the level at which we interface with our environment to ensure our physical survival. Engineering includes the shaping of arrowheads as well as designing faster trains and better oil-drilling gear. Engineering uses science as its lever on the world, but it doesn't have the same goals. To a first approximation the goal of engineering is to maximize our chances of survival, growth and well-being as a species. In order to do this, its first order of business is to maximize the impact we can have on the world while minimizing the energy needed to do it.

Human culture in general orients itself towards the needs of the infrastructure. Science works to support engineering, and our value and belief systems tend to develop to support the concept of continuous growth through the efficient exploitation of the natural world.

So when you say you "believe in science", that we're "smart and creative enough", that all makes perfect sense. Your values and beliefs (which are widely reinforced throughout human culture) support science. Science in turn supports engineering, which in turn exists to impact the world. This is a very well-developed system, and it works extremely well. Which is part of the problem, if you get my drift.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
8. Because all energy use contributes to planetary damage
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 10:20 PM
Mar 2013

The use of CO2 gives the analysis its baseline of the human metabolic rate, and makes the direct comparison with exosomatic energy production less problematic. The fact that 87% of our exosomatic energy is CO2-producing makes it a very convenient jumping-off point. Then I add on the effects of hydro and nuclear, because as I said, all energy use contributes to the damage. Together hydro and nuclear add about 15% to our fossil fuel energy use.

Others have tried to use the concept of "energy slaves", but that approach gets obscure and problematic in a hurry. Issues of energy efficiency and conversion factors muddy the waters. Comparing CO2 produced by food consumption to CO2 produced by burning fuel is much more straight-forward. Any imprecision that's introduced by factoring in non-fuel electricity is minor in comparison.

wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
9. No, all energy does not "contribute to the damage" equally
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 10:26 PM
Mar 2013

especially if you're going to use CO2 as a metric.

Just how do hydro and nuclear add about 15% to our fossil fuel energy use?

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
10. The damage doesn't come just from CO2, but from all aspects of human activity.
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 10:35 PM
Mar 2013

It's aggregate energy consumption that is the driver for aggregate human activity. (On edit: The damage that CO2 can cause is only now becoming apparent. It's not that much of a damage factor yet. In this analysis CO2 production is used as a measure of the rate of human activity, not as a "damage" in its own right - not yet...)

According to the BP Statistical Review, In 2010 fossil fuels supplied 10407 mtoe of energy. Non-fuel sources (hydro, nuclear and renewables) supplied 1571 mtoe, or 15.1% of the FF energy.

wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
11. That's woo.
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 10:43 PM
Mar 2013

1) Define "damage".
2) You say the same energy - 1571 mtoe - is being supplied by both ff and nuclear/hydro. That's certainly not what BP says, because it makes no sense at all.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
13. Let's try this again.
Sun Mar 10, 2013, 11:04 PM
Mar 2013

10407 mtoe was supplied by fossil fuels.
1571 mtoe was supplied by non-fossil sources.
10407+1572 = 11978 mtoe total.

Non-fossil sources contributed 1571/11978 = 0.131 or 13.1% of the total energy used in 2010.
Non-fossil sources contributed 1571/10407 = 0.151 or 15.1% of the fossil energy used in 2010.

"Damage" includes air, soil and water contamination, habitat destruction and ecosystem damage from human development including agriculture, industrial activity and the expansion of human dwelling spaces, depletion of ocean fish stocks, ongoing species extinctions etc. All of it is caused by human activity, which is in turn driven by energy use.

This isn't exactly controversial. I'm just trying to develop a more intuitive metric of the rate of the overall damage we're doing to the planet.

wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
17. Compared to coal, nuclear plays a minute role in air, soil, and water contamination.
Mon Mar 11, 2013, 01:34 AM
Mar 2013

Habitat destruction, ecosystem damage, depletion of ocean fish stocks, and ongoing species extinctions are the result of overpopulation, and have nothing directly to do with the expending of energy. In fact, industry and energy has managed to efficiently accomodate far more people on the globe with less damage than in your idealized hunter/gatherer scenario by stacking people neatly on top of each other in cities, and creating regions specialized for various functions related to sustenance. 7 billion hunter/gatherers would cover every spot on Earth - each one getting his/her own square about 450' wide. Limit that to inhabitable land area, and we would each be allocated a 100' square. Only naturally-growing foods and game would be depleted in a matter of weeks.

Energy has made it possible for many more people to inhabit the Earth, but some forms of energy are obviously more damaging than others. To draw a straight line between all energy and the effects of overpopulation is simplistic and completely ignores that conscious efforts at population control can be very effective. Malthus was wrong - population does not invariably increase when the means of subsistence increase - and the fact that the global population growth rate, in tandem with poverty, has been declining for 50 years is proof. China's one-child policy alone is credited with preventing a quarter of a billion births.

In 2013 we're actually a lot better off than we would have been, were it not for some very deliberate and thoughtful planning. That means it's conceivable we can do better, and even achieve sustainability. You have yet to present the smoking gun which justifies writing off the human race.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
18. From this point of view the sources of the energy are immaterial.
Mon Mar 11, 2013, 03:15 AM
Mar 2013

The direct contamination caused by the energy sources themselves is just one part of the overall impact that human energy use has on the environment.

Energy and population are intimately interlinked, but where you use the word "accommodate" I would use the word "enable". The reason there were never 7 billion hunter-gatherers is precisely because they didn't have the energy required to intensively exploit a relatively tiny patch of land per person for their survival. So they employed a myriad of techniques (including extensive infanticide) to keep the population pressure at bay. When high-density, high-quality exosomatic energy became widely available, that restriction was removed, and population exploded. Population growth was a direct result of energy exploitation. Look at what has happened to energy and population growth since 1850 or so.

The problem is, of course, not just population growth. Population is but one side of the population/consumption rectangle, whose area, aka Impact, is calculated in I=P*AT, where AT is per capita consumption. As resource availablity increases, that rectangle tends to expand until it consumes the available resources. At which point we figure out a way around or through the limit, and keep on growing. Like very, very, very smart cancer cells.

One of the presentations that, for me, made this point very clearly is this set of graphs from New Scientist in 2005:



I find it remarkable as well as educational that this idea can be so transparent to so many people, but is so opaque to others like you. I don't know if we'll be able to come to a meeting of the minds on this. Frankly our starting assumptions about what's going on in the world , as well as our values and beliefs, are so radically different that it makes convergence unlikely.

wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
21. OK, well that point of view is not predictive and is irrelevant to policy then.
Mon Mar 11, 2013, 12:15 PM
Mar 2013

I've shown you conclusively there is no direct connection between energy and resource exploitation - it's possible to increase energy use while even decreasing impact on the environment - but you refuse to accept it.

You say impact "is" calculated using the equation I=P*AT. What units are you using to measure "impact"? Without units your equation is pseudo-scientific woo.

If you want to play the bandwagon card, I've honestly never encountered anyone who subscribes to your unique theory, or imagines as many causative links where none exist. For your collection:

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
22. Our social contacts tend to be self-selecting
Mon Mar 11, 2013, 12:35 PM
Mar 2013

I run into people who share my perspective, you run into people who don't. There's no big surprise in that, is there?

I don't really care if this perspective has anything to offer to policymakers, bureaucrats and engineers. They have little to offer the situation I see developing in the world.

wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
23. Social contacts? I wouldn't have any if I brought this stuff up over a beer.
Mon Mar 11, 2013, 12:44 PM
Mar 2013

I envy you if you have friends with whom you can have any kind of serious discussion about population or energy.

If policymakers, bureaucrats and engineers have little to offer the situation you see developing in the world, who has something to offer?

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
24. I'm fortunate to have a partner who totally gets it.
Mon Mar 11, 2013, 12:57 PM
Mar 2013

She even understands my thermodynamic meanderings - even though she's an artist, not a scientist. My parents get it. My mid-20's nieces get it. I have a small group of personal friends and a large group of online friends who get it. There are people on here who get it. And there's always Guy McPherson's blog commenters. This perspective is by no means as rare as it might appear to you.

Regarding who has something to offer - I think we all do, but only at the small-group level, before the point where herding behavior kicks in (i.e. in groups smaller than Dunbar's Number). The kinds of "solutions" that society at large is hoping for and working towards are just another part of the problem. We are being propelled by natural forces that we can't recognize, whose operation society is constructed to support rather than resist. IMHO.

joshcryer

(62,269 posts)
16. Eh, HG lifestyle, computationally, is so mediocre...
Mon Mar 11, 2013, 12:49 AM
Mar 2013

...as to be simulated by the power consumption of a small city.

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