"Modeling Gap" Opens As Other Nations Pull Ahead On Weather Forecast Accuracy - Funding, You See . .

[hatrack]

EDIT

A more accurate U.S. model, and a more capable national and regional weather forecasting system as a whole, could help Americans better anticipate extreme events at longer lead times, which would save lives and limit economic losses at a time when global warming is making some extreme events, such as heat waves, more likely and severe. Hurricane Sandy is the poster child for that discussion. As Sandy was spinning its way northward from the Caribbean Sea, it was the model run by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) that sounded the earliest alarm. The European Center’s model projected about a week in advance that the storm would make an unprecedented and devastating left hook into the Mid-Atlantic coastline, wreaking havoc the likes of which parts of the East Coast had not seen in modern times.

The top-of-the-line U.S. weather forecasting model, known as the Global Forecasting System (GFS) didn’t catch on to that worst-case scenario until the storm was closer to making landfall in the U.S. That delay contributed to a large degree of uncertainty in the forecasts until just three to four days before the storm hit.

Fast-forward four months to the Feb. 7 blizzard that paralyzed the Northeast by dumping up to 40 inches of snow. Again, it was the European Center’s model that proved to be the most accurate, giving local officials throughout southern New England ample time to prepare, while the U.S. model vacillated between varying projections of the storm’s path, strength, and snowfall amounts.

When it comes to medium-range projections, the gap between the two models’ accuracy is especially wide. Most U.S. weather forecasters now look to the ECMWF model run by the Europeans, which is located in Reading, England, as well as models run by other organizations — like the U.K. Met Office — to get the most accurate picture of how weather systems are likely to evolve in the 3-to-8-day time frame. Forecasters still take the GFS model into account in those time frames, but usually with greater caution compared to the European Center’s simulations.

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http://www.climatecentral.org/news/storms-highlight-flaws-in-u.s.-weather-forecasting-model-15744

[DavidDvorkin]

1. Aah, who needs government agencies?

The private sector will do the job, and do it more efficiently and for less money and blah blah blah.

[pscot]

2. Maybe it will become an issue for Congress

The idea of a Gap should stir up the chauvinists. I can see Louie Gomert and Steve King taking the lead on this.