Solar Is Going To Change The World Much Faster Than Anyone Expects

[xchrom]

http://www.businessinsider.com/solar-is-about-to-get-cheaper-than-coal-2013-5

I’ve been getting into Solar lately – the fall in prices has been absolutely shocking over the last 2-4 years.

We are seeing price drops closer to 20% per year after several decades at 6% price drops per year.

6% year is a fantastic rate of decreases, but 20% is simply astonishing. 20% is an impressive number, but putting it into context will make your jaw drop with astonishment.

My calculations show that if solar maintains 5 more years at current 23% rates per year price drops, solar power will be cheaper than using existing coal plants. That’s right – it will be cheaper to build new solar plants than to use existing coal plants. It sounds absolutely crazy.

[Demeter]

1. NO, it doesn't sound crazy at all

It's what the numbers have been saying from the start. If the subsidies to nuclear and coal were eliminated, including the unpaid environmental costs, the prices would already have been non-competitive years ago.

Good morning, fellow insomniac!

[xchrom]

2. g'morning miss demeter

[Bernardo de La Paz]

3. That graph is nuts and requires explanation. It makes no sense at all. That cliff is bizarre. nt

[Thor_MN]

4. Agreed, it makes no sense at all, given what information exists in the thread at this point.

What event is going to occur in approximately 2020 that causes a stunning drop in cost per KWH in every form charted of power generation?

[bloomington-lib]

5. from the article

"First, look at this paper showing the levelized cost levels for using Coal and Natural gas. In this chart, we can see the Levelized cost of electricity for different types of energy. Photovoltaic Solar has a high initial cost, but after paying for the system, the cost goes to the lowest among any source of energy. Great news, but the initial cost for solar is quite high. It’s high enough to make almost anyone not want to use solar"

Read more: http://monetaryrealism.com/solar-is-about-to-change-our-world/#ixzz2SE5L2KX1

[Bernardo de La Paz]

9. That "explanation" makes no sense either

First, "levelized cost" is not explained and is just gooberized mumbo-jumbo.

Second, the assumption that all plants are capitalized at the same rate is also nonsense.

Third, the assumption that costs go from high steady state to low steady state assumes that steady state costs are realistic, which is more nonsense.

Fourth, there are many kinds of solar, and the OP and the article make the mistake of lumping them all together. They have different capital requirements and different economies of scale and different operating costs and different suitabilities of application.

There is a great point behind the original post, but there is so much smoke obscuring it that the OP should think all the issues and facts through carefully, write a clear post without bogus graphs, and start a new thread with it. (PM me if you do.) I am not going to make the OP's point for her or him.

[Bradical79]

14. Levelized Energy Cost is a thing, look it up

I'm running out the door, but I just thought I'd let you know there is a formula and explanation. Should be able to find it with a google search.

[Orrex]

15. But if the idea is to open eyes and change minds, then an off-putting graph is a clumsy tool

Very glad for the good news all the same!

[FogerRox]

19. LCOE is a standard metric used in the industry.

[TexasTowelie]

6. Read into the article for the explanation.

The x axis denotes the number of years after the plant installation. There is a decrease after 20 years for all energy sources since that cost will have been paid off.

[naaman fletcher]

11. That shows a basic misunderstanding of finance. Nt

[FogerRox]

20. Capital cost? At a certain point the capital cost is recoupped.

[NoMoreWarNow]

7. I sure f&^*ing hope so!

[liberal N proud]

8. I would think the operating cost of solar would make it the better choice alone

Bring down the investment and coal is gone!

West Virgina corporates will really have a conniption then. I can see the giant billboards now, scaring the people of West Virgina that the sun is going to close their coal mines.

[djean111]

10. Oh, but Duke Power will have to figure out a way to block the sun or

buy up all the solar panels, because they make so very much money out of charging customers for non-existent and non-working nuclear plants. And remember, Nuclear Energy is GOOD for you! What can happen?

[The Wizard]

12. A massive volcano

could block the Sun and make solar insufficient. The long term effects are lowering energy prices across the board and cleaner air and water. This will put more money in circulation and restore the middle class that big business has successfully eviscerated since Reagan and the loony concept of supply side economics seized control.
This and jailing corrupt bankers will go a long way to making the American dream a reality for the working class until the wealthy elites impose their will on the vast majority.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

17. Yes, and engineered sulphation of the upper atmosphere is one way to cut back on

Massive engineered sulphation of the upper atmosphere is one way to cut back on global warming while carbon sequestration catches up to reduce the CO2 / methane atmospheric concentrations.

[Katashi_itto]

13. Solar Capital Named Top Dividend Stock With Insider Buying and 10.63% Yield (SLRC)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividendchannel/2012/11/23/solar-capital-named-top-dividend-stock-with-insider-buying-and-10-63-yield-slrc/

I just picked up 10k worth. Seems like an excellent investment alongside oil stocks. Yes, I have oil stocks. One always diversifies ones risk. Oil companies know how to survive and always prosper regardless.

[Yo_Mama]

16. I kind of agree

And I don't think people have been taking either the benefits or the needed infrastructure seriously.

[Overseas]

18. K&R. Yes please!

[NickB79]

21. The reason for the recent solar drop was China flooding the market

And now, the prices have fallen so much that some of their major solar businesses are going bankrupt as they can no longer make a profit: http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/21/news/suntech-solar-bankruptcy/index.html

China's Suntech Power has put its largest subsidiary into bankruptcy, a casualty of rampant oversupply in the solar industry and punishing sanctions levied on Chinese panel producers.

The bankruptcy filing, made in Jiangsu Province, marks the end of a long downward spiral for Suntech's Wuxi subsidiary, once a darling of the solar industry and one of the world's largest panel producers.

Declining prices for solar products and global trade spats have taken a toll on the nascent solar industry in recent years, leading to the failure of several firms heavily dependent on government support.

So, I think it is VERY unlikely that we'll see "solar maintain 5 more years at current 23% rates per year price drops", short of some technological breakthrough.

[NNadir]

22. Wow! This is only the 9,876,543,210th such bit of soothsaying. Basically, wishful...

...thinking and denial are the main reason that the atmosphere is collapsing.

The solar industry would be interesting if, instead of even more soothsaying, it actually produced results.

It would have to supply 20% of the world's energy for about a decade just to make up for all the coal, gas, and oil burned by internet users to tell us how great it is, but it hasn't, it isn't and it won't.

There is nothing different about this case of the 9,986,543,210th prediction than there was in 1976, when the oil, gas and coal "consultant" Amory Lovins wrote the following.

Recent research suggests that a largely or wholly solar economy can be constructed in the United States with straightforward soft technologies that are now demonstrated and now economic or nearly economic."

(Amory "Suncor Consultant" Lovins, "ENERGY STRATEGY:
THE ROAD NOT TAKEN?" Foreign Affairs, Fall 1976, pp 60-96, citation from page 83)

Thirty-seven years later, the atmosphere is collapsing faster than ever, and what do have? More soothsaying that is saying exactly the same.

But don't worry, be happy. Churches have been predicting the coming of Jesus for two millennia, and no one's called them on it either.

Any strategy to address climate change is now useless. It's done. We're cooked.