2014 Is Looking To Be A 7,000 Megawatt Year For Wind Power Capacity And Innovation

[kristopher]

2014 Is Looking To Be A 7,000 Megawatt Year For Wind Power Capacity And Innovation
By Jeff Spross on May 12, 2013 at 10:35 am


GE's new Brilliant 2.5 megawatt turbine. (Credit: GE)

According to Bloomberg, Warren Buffet’s MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. is gearing up to drop $1.9 billion on new wind farms in Iowa. The investment might build as many as 656 new turbines by 2015, which would add as much as 1,050 megawatts of wind power capacity to the 2,285 megawatts the company already operates in the state.

The project could also herald a revival in American wind power in general. The anticipated expiration of the production tax credit for wind energy drove a spike in installations in 2012, then a lull into 2013, and finally an anticipated ramp up now that the credit was extended for another year by the fiscal cliff deal.
And because the new extension merely requires projects to start construction by the end of the year to qualify — projects previously had to actually come online by the end of the year to benefit from the credit — GE now expects the full force of the revival to hit in 2014:

Wind-farm developers including NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE) and Invenergy LLC may install 3,000 megawatts to 4,000 megawatts of turbines in the U.S. this year and as much as 7,000 megawatts next year, Anne McEntee, GE’s vice president of renewable energy, said today in an interview.
The U.S. added a record 13,124 megawatts of turbines last year, outpacing natural gas installations for the first time, as wind developers raced to complete projects ahead of the Dec. 31 expiration of the production tax credit. Denmark’s Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS) andSpain’s Gamesa Corp Tecnologica SA (GAM) also expect new orders to pick up by the third quarter.…
GE has received orders this year for more than 1,000 megawatts of wind turbines, including one from NextEra for 100.3 megawatts announced today for a Michigan wind farm and Invenergy’s 215-megawatt deal announced last week for a project in Texas.

Also coming down the pike for wind power is the new version of GE’s Brilliant — a 2.5 megawatt wind turbine, featuring new smart systems and accompanying storage capacity...

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/05/12/1997111/2014-is-looking-to-be-a-7000-megawatt-year-for-wind-power-capacity-and-innovation/

[defacto7]

1. K&R

[FBaggins]

2. Down from almost double that last year?

I had no idea that this year was expected to be so horrendous. Bad, certainly (a lack of incentives will do that)... but that's a virtual collapse.

[kristopher]

3. "Down almost double"?

I suppose that made sense to you but you'll have to forgive me for my "WTF?"

We've seen the same roller coaster before:
In 2007: 5.2GW;
2008: 8.3GW;
and in 2009 we saw a 10GW boom because regulatory uncertainty (championed by the Nuclear Industry fer sher).

2010 - we dropped to 5.2GW again.

Then it settled down to 7GW in 2011.

The games Repubs played with the PTC pushed a spike in US wind to a bit more than 13GW in 2012 (5.2GW in December alone). Those same games created a sluggish market this year and the article is about the fact that it will "revive" to the 7GW level in 2014.

So let's say we do 5.2GW again this year and the 7GW in 2014.
5.2+8.3+10+5.2+7+13+5.2+7

That would make it 61.4 GW of installed US capacity in 8 years.

At 30% capacity that is the equivalent generation of about 21 GW of nuclear plants, isn't it?

BTW, how's that nuclear revival going for you?

[FBaggins]

4. Perhaps if you read it again?

I didn't say "down almost double" I said "down from almost double that last year"

We've seen the same roller coaster before:

Nice to see you finally admit it. Yes... the expiration of government subsidies tends to shift demand forward, while the anticipation of future subsidies tends to postpone demand. (Which makes it particularly silly to look at an assembly line for one piece of a system and extrapolate that into the number of units that will be in place x years later)

So let's say we do 5.2GW again this year

Their prediction was 3-4GW.

At 30% capacity that is the equivalent generation of about 21 GW of nuclear plants, isn't it?

Nope... for the obvious reasons (variable KWs aren't "equivalent" to more reliable KWs... and the nuclear plant will still be cranking out those KWs when the replacement for the wind farm is retiring (and possible when the replacement to the replacement is retiring).

BTW, how's that nuclear revival going for you?

Much better than you expected.

[kristopher]

5. It's gibberish.

Which is actually an improvement over most of your lame spinning.

[FogerRox]

7. They've got MW envy.

3.3 cents/kwh vs 11 cents..... with many areas required to buy the cheaper electricity.... wind power will be bought before other sources. But hey, thats OK, nukes, coal and nat gas can back up wind and solar anyday.

[FBaggins]

9. Do you really think that's true?

Not the "envy" nonsense... but the claim that wind generation costs 3.3 cents/kwh?

If that were true... you've got to ask yourself why demand falls by up 75-80% when government support dries up? Natural gas development is booming with prices more than double that amount.

[FBaggins]

8. You've confused ignorance on your part with lack of clarity on mine.

Not the first time that's happened.

Let's try it again. On day one, a well produces 13 gallons of water. In the late morning of day two it is projected to produce only 3-4 gallons of water for the day, but rise to as much as 7 gallons on day three.

An increase from 3-4 to 7 appears to be an attractive daily increase - until you realize that even the higher figure is down from almost double that amount on day one.

[FogerRox]

6. 30% CF seems very low. Everything I've read dating from 3 yrs ago points at 33%-35%.

More recently 40%...with 46% to 50% in the next decade, dependent on tech advances. GE & Vesta are working on using composites and MRI type tech to reach 15Mw for their offshore models. Thats a big jump from the current 4-6mw.

[FBaggins]

10. It's a reasonable figure to use.

Germany had 30 GW of wind capacity at the end of 2012. If it operated at 100% capacity for the year, that would be just under 263 TWh. They actually produced 46 TWh. A capacity factor of 17.5%. Their 2011 performance was a bit better (about 19%) with more generation on a slightly lower capacity.

Here's a slightly dated report. A quick glance puts Canada at 30%, China at 14% (I think that's a grid-connection issue), Denmark at 28%, The EU as a whole at 25%.

The US was at 29%.

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/wind/pdfs/iea_wind_2011_annual_report.pdf

IEEE estimated for 2012 that the global average CF was 21%

[FogerRox]

11. OP is about 2014. Not CF of older turbines.

[FBaggins]

12. The post you replied to is about eight years of production.

Only a little over 10% of which will be 2014.

30% is a very reasonable figure to use... because it happens to be accurate.

[FogerRox]

13. UR right Kris never mentioned 2014 in that comment.