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FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
Wed May 15, 2013, 10:05 PM May 2013

Cost of German Solar is Four Times Finnish Nuclear

Olkiluoto Nuclear Plant, Plagued by Budget Overruns, Still Beats Germany’s Energiewende

Germany’s solar program will generate electricity at quadruple the cost of one of the most expensive nuclear power plants in the world, according to a new Breakthrough Institute analysis, raising serious questions about a renewable energy strategy widely heralded as a global model.



The findings challenge the idea that solar photovoltaic is a disruptive, scalable, “shelf-ready” technology with a cost advantage over nuclear. Energy analysts frequently point to Finland’s advanced nuclear project at Olkiluoto, which is seven years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget, and solar in Germany as indicative of future cost trends working against new nuclear technologies and in favor of solar.

Proponents of Germany’s Energiewende, which now involves jettisoning the country’s nuclear fleet by 2023, argue that solar and wind can make up the difference in lost capacity. A straightforward cost comparison between the two programs over the same 20-year period, however, reveals the costs of this proposition.

The Finnish European pressurized reactor (EPR), with an estimated total cost of $15 billion, will generate over half as much energy as the entire existing German solar program, which will run to roughly $130 billion. The total cost of electricity produced by German solar will be 32 cents per kilowatt-hour versus 7 cents per kilowatt-hour for the Areva-Siemens nuclear plant in Finland — a more than four-fold difference. Two such nuclear plants would generate slightly more than Germany’s solar panels, at less than a fourth the total cost.


...snip...

The reactor will generate about 225 TWh in a 20-year timeframe,3 more than half of what all of Germany’s solar panels installed between 2000 and 2011 will generate over their 20-year feed-in tariff contracts.

http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/energy-and-climate/cost-of-german-solar-is-four-times-finnish-nuclear/
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Cost of German Solar is Four Times Finnish Nuclear (Original Post) FBaggins May 2013 OP
"The Breakthrough Institute"? kristopher May 2013 #1
Hardly the heritage foundation. FBaggins May 2013 #4
Where is your peaking power going to come from? Fairy dust? kristopher May 2013 #7
Peaking power must match peaking demand. FBaggins May 2013 #10
well, even you have to admit that with increasing gains in storage technology all of these numbers Tunkamerica May 2013 #32
Admit? FBaggins May 2013 #33
Me too. Tunkamerica May 2013 #34
What you said. It's another front for Big Energy. DCKit May 2013 #72
What about the cost and risk of storing nuclear waste for generations? JEB May 2013 #2
Negligible. FBaggins May 2013 #5
100,000 years of responsibility is not negligible. JEB May 2013 #9
Sure it is. FBaggins May 2013 #11
your casual dismissal of the problems with storing spent nuclear material would tell me everything niyad May 2013 #14
I haven't dismissed them FBaggins May 2013 #15
Really - which isotopes last 100,000 years FreakinDJ May 2013 #20
Ask the famous Luddite and astronaut JEB May 2013 #22
the higher the intensity of radioactivity the shorter the half-life. FreakinDJ May 2013 #24
Until it Leaks newsboy May 2013 #3
Methodology straight out the climate change deniers handbook Kelvin Mace May 2013 #6
That's the BI for you. kristopher May 2013 #8
Got any details? FBaggins May 2013 #12
Cherry picking data Kelvin Mace May 2013 #39
Hardly. FBaggins May 2013 #41
Seeing as solar is increasing Germany's carbon footprint dramatically wtmusic May 2013 #42
How is that? Kelvin Mace May 2013 #45
Because solar doesn't work most of the time. wtmusic May 2013 #46
That is still 13MW not produced Kelvin Mace May 2013 #59
High-carbon nuclear? wtmusic May 2013 #62
So, the contruction of the plant Kelvin Mace May 2013 #63
Solar is 2.5x higher than nuclear in lifetime GHG emissions. wtmusic May 2013 #64
You can mine 250-300 tons of steel without emissions? FBaggins May 2013 #68
breakthrough institute gets it wrong on climate economics--again niyad May 2013 #13
Not related to this analysis. FBaggins May 2013 #16
hmmm, not related. but the fact that they are wrong in one significant area tells me they niyad May 2013 #17
Your habit of misrepresenting my views is getting out of hand kristopher May 2013 #18
If I'm misrepresenting your views... you hide them pretty well. FBaggins May 2013 #25
What’s wrong with pricing carbon emissions? FreakinDJ May 2013 #21
I don't get that from Breakthrough's paper. wtmusic May 2013 #48
They are rightwing and antitax kristopher May 2013 #49
the people who lived near Chernobyl disagree about no economic cost when nuclear goes bad nt msongs May 2013 #19
The people of Fukushima JEB May 2013 #23
And who said that? FBaggins May 2013 #26
The ticking bomb that is the Hanford Kelvin Mace May 2013 #38
That isn't related to nuclear power. FBaggins May 2013 #40
Have they figured in the price of dismantlibg the reactor? Democracyinkind May 2013 #27
Of course. FBaggins May 2013 #28
There are only about 2 or 3 fully dismantled (commercial) reactors that I know of Democracyinkind May 2013 #36
It isn't just figured into their math... it's required FBaggins May 2013 #37
they left out the cost of liabily veganlush May 2013 #29
A frequently-repeated falsehood FBaggins May 2013 #31
wrong veganlush May 2013 #53
Nonsense. FBaggins May 2013 #54
give it up veganlush May 2013 #55
There was such a meltdown already. FBaggins May 2013 #57
the fact that you veganlush May 2013 #58
Only in the case... FBaggins May 2013 #60
Solar subsidies are 30 times as high as those for nuclear. wtmusic May 2013 #67
Why does a 60 year old industry need subsidies? kristopher May 2013 #69
Union of Concerned Scientists FogerRox May 2013 #70
"Legacy" subsidies? WTF is this idiot talking about? wtmusic May 2013 #71
Every operating nuke plant in the world is insured. wtmusic May 2013 #44
Under-insured is more accurate. kristopher May 2013 #50
It's just money. DetlefK May 2013 #30
Which is why we ought to ban fossil fuels and agricultural fuels. hunter May 2013 #61
Breakthrough Chairman's Bio - long version, is a joke. GeorgeGist May 2013 #35
Wow - did these idiots ever consider the cost feed-in tarrifs vs. actual generating costs? jpak May 2013 #43
Of course - all tarrrrifs included. nt wtmusic May 2013 #47
And what was the purpose of these tarrifs? jpak May 2013 #52
What WAS the purpose? FBaggins May 2013 #56
This is why the BI "study" is BS. kristopher May 2013 #51
758 veiws and 2 recs. Next. FogerRox May 2013 #65
Thanks for kick, and... wtmusic May 2013 #66

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
1. "The Breakthrough Institute"?
Wed May 15, 2013, 10:07 PM
May 2013

You might as well use the Heritage Foundation as a source.

Since I refuse to click their site, I'm just going to point out the obvious gimmicks they used that are included in what you posted.

Why 20 years? The solar panels will still be producing electricity for at least a couple of more decades than that and it will, literally, be free.

Why just solar? Solar is a peaking resource. To perform the same peaking function with nuclear you'd need to curtail the amount of time the nuclear plant runs dramatically, consequently causing the price of its electricity to skyrocket.

Again, why solar? Solar - especially German solar installed in the timeframe listed - is an emerging technology that has delivered a staggering decrease in costs over the time period in question. By what amount has the cost of nuclear declined during that same period? How much more will it rise going forward? There is certainly no indication that nuclear's price has peaked.

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
4. Hardly the heritage foundation.
Wed May 15, 2013, 10:28 PM
May 2013

Your continued (weak) attempt to paint environmentalists who fail to accept your gospel as the only way to climate salvation wears thin.


Why 20 years?

For the reasons cited in the piece. That's the length of time that the incentives run. But it's ridiculous to claim that solar panels last "at least" 40 years(particularly if they're sitting on someone's roof). On the other hand, the nuclear plant should last decades longer than even that... so a longer timeline would only help the nuclear case.

Why just solar?

Why not?

To perform the same peaking function with nuclear

Why on earth would anyone want to mirror the variability of solar? Talk about a false comparison. Yeah... it would be expensive to try to limit a nuclear plant to only what solar can offer... but what would be the point? The place where we're spending so much money is trying to get solar to come closer to acting like nuclear. Your use of "peaking" is deceptive, since that's really a demand-side term... and solar only meets that peaking load at certain times of year.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
7. Where is your peaking power going to come from? Fairy dust?
Wed May 15, 2013, 10:35 PM
May 2013

The comparison they are making is obviously designed to produce an predetermined outcome.

The Breakthrough Institute are right wing shills that push policies designed to promote BAU. They are the Joe Scab of think tanks.

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
10. Peaking power must match peaking demand.
Wed May 15, 2013, 10:45 PM
May 2013

It's the demand that drives the equation... not the supply. Peaking supply must come from a source that you can turn on when you need it. You're wrong to claim that nuclear can't do that (the newed designs often can), but there wouldn't be a NEED to do that, since there's no point in turning it off... unless you go so far down the nuclear road (as with France) that it's too large a proportion of your portfolio.

You're trying to pretend that solar's greatest weakness is actually a strength. If you're in Phoenix, that's great. Not Europe. Much of Europe sees peaking demands when solar produces almost nothing at all.

The Breakthrough Institute are right wing shills

Yeah... there you go again accusing anyone who disagrees with you of being a RW shill. All the while conveniently ignoring that those supposed RW shills include the President of the US and MANY elected Democrats.

It's very evidently your "pound on the table" when you lack facts on your side of the debate.

Tunkamerica

(4,444 posts)
32. well, even you have to admit that with increasing gains in storage technology all of these numbers
Thu May 16, 2013, 06:43 AM
May 2013

will change.

Tunkamerica

(4,444 posts)
34. Me too.
Thu May 16, 2013, 06:49 AM
May 2013

Solar's biggest disadvantage is it's lack of constancy. If that's overcome... then all of this argument will seem so retro and weird to future generations.

 

DCKit

(18,541 posts)
72. What you said. It's another front for Big Energy.
Fri May 17, 2013, 06:05 PM
May 2013
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2009/06/17/204250/the-breakthrough-institute-shellenberger-nordhaus-waxman-markey/?mobile=nc


Debunking Breakthrough Institute’s attacks on Obama, Gore, and top climate scientists

By Joe Romm on Jun 17, 2009 at 7:15 pm

The Breakthrough Institute (TBI) has dedicated the resources of their organization to trying to kill prospects for climate and clean energy action in this Congress and to spreading disinformation about Obama, Gore, Congressional leaders, Waxman and Markey, leading climate scientists, Al Gore again, the entire environmental community and anyone else trying to end our status quo energy policies, including me (see “Memo to media: Don’t be suckered by bad analyses from the Breakthrough Institute” and “Will America lose the clean-energy race? Only if we listen to the disinformers of The Breakthrough Institute“). Now they are embracing and defended those who deny the reality of climate science.


Much more at link.

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
5. Negligible.
Wed May 15, 2013, 10:28 PM
May 2013

There just isn't that much of it. It's a political problem, not an economic problem.

 

JEB

(4,748 posts)
9. 100,000 years of responsibility is not negligible.
Wed May 15, 2013, 10:43 PM
May 2013
http://www.greens.org/s-r/11/11-08.html

Irradiated fuel assemblies do not rest in benign repose.

edit to add the "years" I omitted. Careless human error, but at least it didn't foul the world for 100,000 years.

niyad

(113,216 posts)
14. your casual dismissal of the problems with storing spent nuclear material would tell me everything
Wed May 15, 2013, 10:56 PM
May 2013

I needed to know about your thinking, if I were not already familiar with it.

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
15. I haven't dismissed them
Wed May 15, 2013, 10:58 PM
May 2013

I've simply pointed out that they are political in nature, not financial.

 

JEB

(4,748 posts)
22. Ask the famous Luddite and astronaut
Wed May 15, 2013, 11:53 PM
May 2013

Senator John Glenn states, "High-level nuclear waste, including spent nuclear fuel, has a half-life of 10,000 years and then must reach another 10 half-lives (i.e. 100,000 years) before it is no longer hazardous to human health."

 

FreakinDJ

(17,644 posts)
24. the higher the intensity of radioactivity the shorter the half-life.
Thu May 16, 2013, 12:27 AM
May 2013

but yes some can go millions of years

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
41. Hardly.
Thu May 16, 2013, 09:33 AM
May 2013

The "cherry picked" data includes using costs for nuclear from the plant with some of the largest cost overruns in history (if not the largest)... while the costs they're using for solar include only the direct costs and tarrifs. It doesn't appear to include costs for necessary grid enhancements or the extra cost involved in dumping excess power for next to nothing to neighboring countries that can store it and then re-importing it at much higher prices later.

So once again... can you give some specifics or is it just an ad hominem?

wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
42. Seeing as solar is increasing Germany's carbon footprint dramatically
Thu May 16, 2013, 11:55 AM
May 2013

it's interesting you put it that way.

Germany's irrational fear of nuclear is only pushing the world closer to the edge.

 

Kelvin Mace

(17,469 posts)
45. How is that?
Thu May 16, 2013, 11:59 AM
May 2013

Yes, there is a carbon cost to build and install solar, but the cost to build and install nuclear, plus the carbon cost to mine and process uranium is far greater.

wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
46. Because solar doesn't work most of the time.
Thu May 16, 2013, 12:03 PM
May 2013

In Germany and other northern latitudes, it has about a 13% capacity factor, meaning on average a 100MW plant delivers 13MW.

When it's cloudy or at night, Germany's coal plants kick in, and they're building more.

This year from January-March, Germany averaged 1 hour of sunlight/day.

 

Kelvin Mace

(17,469 posts)
59. That is still 13MW not produced
Thu May 16, 2013, 03:00 PM
May 2013

by high carbon coal/nuclear (and nuclear does have an ongoing carbon footprint to mine/process/fuel the plant, plus the footprint to store the waste.

The longer we put off deploying and improving renewable, the worse the problem will get.

wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
62. High-carbon nuclear?
Thu May 16, 2013, 03:27 PM
May 2013

Nuclear is not "high-carbon" per kWh produced, by any stretch of the imagination.

It produces virtually zero carbon.

And solar's footprint, even when it's not producing at all, is hundreds of times that of nuclear. Capacity from the new two-reactor plant at Hinkley Point in the UK, if generated by wind or solar, would take up an area the size of Greater London - about 600 sq miles.

 

Kelvin Mace

(17,469 posts)
63. So, the contruction of the plant
Thu May 16, 2013, 03:50 PM
May 2013

has zero carbon?

The maintenance of the plant is zero carbon?

The uranium is mined, processed, transported then transported and reprocessed and stored as waste with Zero carbon?

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
68. You can mine 250-300 tons of steel without emissions?
Thu May 16, 2013, 06:35 PM
May 2013

And that's for one 3 MW turbine.

You need about a thousand of them to average the annual production of a single modern reactor (more for the larger ones)... and then 20-30 years later you need to replace half of that (give or take) to re-power the tower (assuming it gets reused at all).

niyad

(113,216 posts)
13. breakthrough institute gets it wrong on climate economics--again
Wed May 15, 2013, 10:54 PM
May 2013

Breakthrough Institute gets it wrong on climate economics — again

Why do those at the Breakthrough Institute insist that everyone else besides them who cares about the environment is wrong, wrong, wrong? Their latest, called “The Creative Destruction of Climate Economics,” is a swipe at those misguided souls who think putting a price on carbon emissions would help combat climate change.

Breakthrough, according to its website, aims “to modernize liberal-progressive-green politics” and to accelerate the transition to an “ecologically vibrant” future. It “broke through” into well-funded fame in 2003 with its attack on environmentalists for failing to emphasize the economic concerns of ordinary Americans, such as jobs — thereby alienating the major environmental groups, who had been talking about jobs and the environment for years.

What’s wrong with pricing carbon emissions? This particular breakthrough rests on a mistaken reading of an academic paper in the American Economic Review, the most prestigious outlet for mainstream economics. That paper develops a simplified, abstract model of an economy that generates carbon emissions. Unlike some climate economics models, it assumes that public policy can affect the pace of innovation. Its conclusion, in the authors’ own words, seems quite balanced:

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
16. Not related to this analysis.
Wed May 15, 2013, 11:02 PM
May 2013

Also... it's probably not a great idea to cite their disagreement with carbon taxes... since I disagree with BI on that, but you'll have a tough time getting kris to speak in favor of them. Too much danger that it would spark rapid growth in nuclear power and Kris (in recent years) is far more interested in stoping nuclear power than in limiting carbon emissions.

niyad

(113,216 posts)
17. hmmm, not related. but the fact that they are wrong in one significant area tells me they
Wed May 15, 2013, 11:15 PM
May 2013

could be wrong in other areas as well. but then, nothing in this thread surprises me.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
18. Your habit of misrepresenting my views is getting out of hand
Wed May 15, 2013, 11:17 PM
May 2013

"I don't think it is going to happen so now what do we do?" is a far, far cry from the bullshit you have attributed to me.

I would love to see a carbon tax and I've never expressed any other view.

Your habit of misrepresenting my views is getting out of hand; you are doing it routinely. I'm asking you politely to stop it.

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
25. If I'm misrepresenting your views... you hide them pretty well.
Thu May 16, 2013, 05:52 AM
May 2013

I've tried on more than one occasion to get you to make a statement of support, and can't remember you ever agreeing.

I would love to see a carbon tax and I've never expressed any other view.

You opposed the UKs move to set a floor price on carbon because it was (in your mind) a subsidy to nuclear power.

You haven't given us any reason to believe that you didn't shift from support when you realized that a real carbon tax would automatically result in a rapid expansion of nuclear power (along with renewables of course)... just like you shifted from supporting keeping existing nuclear plants open once Germany/Japan decided to shutter theirs early.

In short - if you're here saying that you support a carbon tax unreservedly... I'm happy to take that correction and accept it as true. What I won't do is pretend that any misunderstanding is from misrepresentation on my part vs. lack of clarity on yours.

 

FreakinDJ

(17,644 posts)
21. What’s wrong with pricing carbon emissions?
Wed May 15, 2013, 11:44 PM
May 2013

It simply drives it Off Shore into UnRegulated manufacturing zones while punishing those countries that are actively curbing emissions

THAT is what is Wrong with it

wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
48. I don't get that from Breakthrough's paper.
Thu May 16, 2013, 12:11 PM
May 2013

They point out where existing carbon taxes have failed, and for the most part they have.

They're saying the importance of carbon pricing has been overstated while the importance of tech innovation has been understated, and they make a pretty good point for it.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
49. They are rightwing and antitax
Thu May 16, 2013, 12:30 PM
May 2013

Their conclusions are predetermined.

Tech innovation is not the problem. We have more tech than we can get finances to deploy. A carbon tax shifts the point at which money flows from investment in carbon/maintaining carbon assets and into the renewable sector.

It isn't complex. They claim they want change, but their policy recommendations clearly show that they are proponents of BAU.

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
26. And who said that?
Thu May 16, 2013, 05:55 AM
May 2013

The question wasn't whether there was a cost "when nuclear goes bad". The question was the cost/risk of long term storage of the waste. Not cleanup costs after incredibly rare accidents.

The people of Japan are suffering under incredible cleanup costs from the Tsunami... but nobody asks about the cost "when houses go bad".

 

Kelvin Mace

(17,469 posts)
38. The ticking bomb that is the Hanford
Thu May 16, 2013, 09:14 AM
May 2013

Site begs to differ about the cost and danger of long term storage of nuclear waste.

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
40. That isn't related to nuclear power.
Thu May 16, 2013, 09:25 AM
May 2013

That waste is from the nuclear weapons program... and the waste predates the current technologies for spent fuel storage.

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
28. Of course.
Thu May 16, 2013, 06:16 AM
May 2013

Were you under the impression that none of them have been dismantled in the past?

Two of the recent German retirees were in the news just this week with plans for a direct decommissioning.

Democracyinkind

(4,015 posts)
36. There are only about 2 or 3 fully dismantled (commercial) reactors that I know of
Thu May 16, 2013, 07:27 AM
May 2013

and in all those cases, tax payers were forced to jump in to pay for at least a part of the costs. I was just wondering if they figured that price into their math, which honesty would demand.

I've yet to see a cost analysis of dismantling a commercial-grade reactor. Test-Reactors came in at 400-500 million Euros to dismantle, if I remember correctly, over a period of 10-20 years.

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
37. It isn't just figured into their math... it's required
Thu May 16, 2013, 07:44 AM
May 2013

Certainly in the US.

Here's a link to look at. The question "How much does it cost to decommission a nuclear power plant?" includes several examples of commercial-grade reactors.

http://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/regulatory/decommissioning/faq.html#19

Test-Reactors came in at 400-500 million Euros to dismantle, if I remember correctly, over a period of 10-20 years.

That looks in the ballpark to me - depending on which decommissioning process is selected.

veganlush

(2,049 posts)
29. they left out the cost of liabily
Thu May 16, 2013, 06:22 AM
May 2013

Which gets absorbed by society. Nuclear plants cant be insured so society assumes the risks and the nukes plant gets out of paying for insurance

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
31. A frequently-repeated falsehood
Thu May 16, 2013, 06:36 AM
May 2013

Yet no less false.

It's based on the incorrect assumption that companies normally must be insured against the greatest loss that they can create. And that the cost of any requirement below this amount is "absorbed by society" and thus a hidden subsidy artificially lowering the cost of whatever it is that they create.

In reality, that simply isn't true. Nobody (individual, business, or government) carries insurance sufficient to cover the largest possible loss that they can create. Society always gets stuck with whatever is left over.

veganlush

(2,049 posts)
53. wrong
Thu May 16, 2013, 02:13 PM
May 2013

you are. Very, very few businesses, individuals, etc, create the risks that nuke plants do. Their insurance is meant to cover THEIR losses, the facility itself. Nuclear plants are unique in their power to destroy. What will the true cost be to restore things in Japan? What would it cost here, to render huge swaths of land uninhabitable for decades or more, and that's after the initial destruction of homes, businesses, entire towns, not to mention the liability for cancer deaths and all the other health problems. Japan has irradiated the ocean for miles out, The costs are incalculable. As another post in this thread states: Nuclear Power: Still Not Viable without Subsidies

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
54. Nonsense.
Thu May 16, 2013, 02:22 PM
May 2013

Nuclear plants are in no way "unique" in their power to destroy. As cited a few days ago... a major dam failure could kill many thousands and make large areas "uninhabitable" for many years. Chemical facilities and gas leaks have killed thousands... the BP oil spill did much more damage and could have been many times worse if they hadn't come up with a way to cap it.

Their insurance is meant to cover THEIR losses, the facility itself

More nonsense. Companies always carry liability insurance and often well in excess of the cost of the facility... but it's never enough to worst possible event.

veganlush

(2,049 posts)
55. give it up
Thu May 16, 2013, 02:30 PM
May 2013

the examples you cite are picnics by comparison. Nuclear gets a fake, free ride. by the way, it's looks like there was a big solar spill in my neck-of-the-woods today, it's beautiful out here in Southeast Michigan! A nuclear meltdown, even a partially contained/mitigated one in a densely populated area of the USA would saddle the taxpayers will unimaginable burdens and dodging liability for that is what makes nuclear power seem viable.

edited because I felt like changing something that i had typed. Dig?

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
57. There was such a meltdown already.
Thu May 16, 2013, 02:40 PM
May 2013

TMI resulted in no such expense to taxpayers.

Sorry... the argument remains falsely grounded on shifting sand. It is predicated on the notion that a company would necessarily carry enough insurance to cover the worst possible accident. That notion is false.

The Japanese often live along the seafront... and people live in San Francisco... and we built New Orleans. The costs to the public of the tsunami are much larger than those from Fukushima (caused by the same earthquake). The "big one" in San Francisco will kill many more people and cost far more... and NOLA wasn't exactly cheap. In all of these cases, society as a whole picks up most of the tab. Private/commercial insurance just doesn't get it done.

veganlush

(2,049 posts)
58. the fact that you
Thu May 16, 2013, 02:53 PM
May 2013

are using "the big one" and NOLA in your argument about which energy sources are most efficient speaks volumes. The facts are simple: if you factor in the true costs, nuclear power has to be heavily subsidized to even begin to appear viable.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
69. Why does a 60 year old industry need subsidies?
Thu May 16, 2013, 06:57 PM
May 2013
In 1954, General Electric stated in an advertisement placed in National Geographic that, “We already know the kinds of plants which will be feasible, how they will operate, and we can estimate what their expenses will be. In five years—certainly within 10—a number of them will be oper- ating at about the same cost as those using coal. They will be privately financed, built without government subsidy.” Clearly, 5 or 10 years were not enough in the 1950s and ’60s, and there is little reason to expect that present subsidy requirements will be short-term either.In the case of nuclear it's because they can't exist without them.
Koplow pg 19


Koplow table 28

Repeat:
Note: Subsidies are compared to EIA 2009 power prices entailing comparable busbar plant generation costs (high: 6.0 ¢/kWh; reference: 5.7 ¢/kWh).

Total estimated subsidies to new reactors are much higher than those for ongoing operations at existing plants: 4.2 to 11.4 ¢/kWh—or between 70 and 200 percent of the projected value of the electricity they would produce over the next 15 years.


Would you care to discuss the amount of lifetime subsidies or the raw amount of subsidies?

The argument you make about subsidies is thoroughly dishonest.

FogerRox

(13,211 posts)
70. Union of Concerned Scientists
Thu May 16, 2013, 07:11 PM
May 2013

In total, we estimate the value of legacy subsi
-
dies to nuclear power were at least 7.5 ¢/kWh—
equivalent to nearly 140 percent or more of the
value of the power produced from 1960 to 2008.
In other words, the value of government subsidies
to the first generation of nuclear reactors actually
exceeded the value of the power produced by
those plants.

http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nuclear_power/nuclear_subsidies_report.pdf

wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
71. "Legacy" subsidies? WTF is this idiot talking about?
Thu May 16, 2013, 10:17 PM
May 2013

They don't exist anymore. It's money that will never have to be paid again so is completely separate from the current cost of nuclear power - unlike ongoing production tax credits for wind and solar, which are both completely dependent on them.

wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
44. Every operating nuke plant in the world is insured.
Thu May 16, 2013, 11:58 AM
May 2013

Where on earth do you get this misinformation?

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
50. Under-insured is more accurate.
Thu May 16, 2013, 12:48 PM
May 2013

There is virtually no money in the insured amounts for the surrounding area and its residents. All the insurance does is protect the utility from the loss of their facility. There are other problems also, such as the drawn out time frame involved in gathering the money after the accident.

As shown in Table 21, retrospective premiums provide the vast majority (nearly 95 percent) of available coverage for any nuclear accident.

At present, the U.S. system provides the largest pool of coverage for a nuclear accident of any country in the world.83 However, this distinction may be more of an indication of the severity of coverage shortfalls in other countries than a tribute to U.S. rules and regulations. In terms of gross value, the available funds for U.S. compensation are well in excess of $12 billion; however, the funding drops to roughly $8.5 billion on a net-present-value basis. While the present value of available coverage is not usually discussed by the industry when outlining provisions for an accident scenario, it is a more appropriate metric given the seven-year lag between an accident and final retrospective-premium payments. In reality, both U.S. and global storm events have exceeded this level of damage, an indication that the limits likely would not be sufficient for nuclear accidents. While the pool of available coverage has grown over the past 50 years, that period has also seen sharp increases in the populations that could be affected by an accident, in the value of real estate and infrastructure within potentially affected areas, and in court recognition (via jury awards) of ancillary damage—such as environmental damages and lost wages for injured workers—from accidents.85

A simple evaluation of coverage per person, should an accident occur at a reactor located close to a population center, helps to illustrate this point. Table 21 uses as an example a reactor at Calvert Cliffs, located near Washington, DC, and Baltimore, MD. Available coverage, including pooled premiums from all other reactors (as stipu- lated under Price-Anderson), barely tops $1,100 per person in the Baltimore/Washington combined statistical area. This small amount would need to cover not only loss of property from an accident but also morbidity or mortality. The portion paid by Calvert Cliffs to cover the off-site accident risk from its own operations (Tier 1 coverage plus its share of Tier 2) would be a mere $60 per person affected. While the extent of the injuries would vary with the specifics of an accident, the weather at the time, and patterns of local settlement and construction, for a metropolitan area of this size it is clear that the coverage provided by Price- Anderson is not large.

Nuclear Power: Still Not Viable without Subsidies pg 69-70 Koplow

This is part of an excellent discussion on PAA, you really should read it. Available via Google.

DetlefK

(16,423 posts)
30. It's just money.
Thu May 16, 2013, 06:32 AM
May 2013

I prefer a technology that won't pollute the planet for many generations to come, even if it's a bit more expensive. Thank you.

Survival is more important than money.

hunter

(38,309 posts)
61. Which is why we ought to ban fossil fuels and agricultural fuels.
Thu May 16, 2013, 03:23 PM
May 2013

All of them.

Nuclear I only oppose as a Luddite.

jpak

(41,757 posts)
43. Wow - did these idiots ever consider the cost feed-in tarrifs vs. actual generating costs?
Thu May 16, 2013, 11:57 AM
May 2013

nope.

Fail

yup

jpak

(41,757 posts)
52. And what was the purpose of these tarrifs?
Thu May 16, 2013, 01:28 PM
May 2013

To facilitate a rapid build out of solar capacity and drive down module prices.

Both goals were achieved and there is no real need for these tariffs any longer.

Solar modules are now below $1 a watt wholesale and PV can provide up to 50% of Germany's electrical demand.

Solar is now close to - or at - grid parity in the EU.

Mission Accomplished.

Yup

FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
56. What WAS the purpose?
Thu May 16, 2013, 02:34 PM
May 2013

You keep acting as if they server their purpose and are no longer needed.

Have you told the Germans? They not only still have the FIT, but it has been increasing rapidly and will stick for two decades?

You have a very Bush-like notion of "mission accomplished".

Solar modules are now below $1 a watt wholesale

And yet the manufacturers can't break even at the current prices but they're still too high to sell their glut in supply?

But this is interesting spin on your part. It isn't fair to count the FIT in the price the German's are paying for solar electricity because of this nobler purpose (as if the Euros don't need to be paid when there's a noble purpose)? If the government built 20 nuclear plants and just paid for them out of tax revenue while giving the power away to consumers... would you score the price of that power as "zero"?

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
51. This is why the BI "study" is BS.
Thu May 16, 2013, 12:55 PM
May 2013

There is a reason that BI drew the boundaries of their propaganda as they did - in comprehensive analysis comparing the centralized nuke/fossil fuel thermal system with the distributed renewables system, the RE system always achieves our goals more rapidly, safely and economically than the alternative.

Solar is set to bring the same type of benefit to consumers as the technology matures.

With More Wind Energy, PJM Could Save Customers $7 Billion per Year
By Jeff Postelwait, Associate Editor, Electric Light & Power
May 10, 2013


Tulsa, OK -- The PJM Interconnection could save its customers $6.9 billion if it more than doubled the amount of wind energy it currently plans to build. This is according to a study by Americans for a Clean Energy Grid and Synapse Energy Economics.

By the end of 2012, about 3.4 percent of PJM's total installed capacity was generated from wind. Over the next 13 years, with the advent of renewable portfolio standards, states within the PJM system will expand their wind energy capacity to 11 percent of their total installed capacity.

Bob Fagan, an economist with Synapse Energy Economics who worked on the report, said in a conference call that the study allowed for a significant build-out of transmission to allow this proposed new wind energy development to flow throughout the grid.

"Most of the wind resource is in the eastern portion of PJM," Fagan said. "A significant transmission build-out will be required in the western part of PJM to bring this electricity to market."

A large portion of the consumer savings come in by phasing out fossil fuel-fired generation, particularly coal power, which...

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/05/with-more-wind-energy-pjm-could-save-customers-7-billion-per-year?cmpid=WindNL-Thursday-May16-2013
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