Moniz: Climate Change ‘Not Debatable’

[FBaggins]

New Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz doesn’t want to spend his tenure battling over climate science. “Let me make it very clear that there is no ambiguity in terms of the scientific basis calling for a prudent response on climate change,” Moniz told Energy Department employees shortly after his swearing-in.

“I am not interested in debating what is not debatable,” Moniz said in his remarks at the Tuesday ceremony. “There is plenty to debate as we try and move forward on our climate agenda.” The comment was part of much wider-ranging remarks, available here, on Moniz’s overall agenda.

...snip...

Moniz is stepping into the Cabinet job at a time when President Obama has vowed new executive-level actions on climate.

Moniz, in a separate speech Tuesday, vowed to focus heavily on energy efficiency initiatives, which he called a vital tool in addressing greenhouse gas emissions.

http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/301287-new-energy-secretary-need-to-address-climate-change-not-debatable

[napoleon_in_rags]

1. I hope we watch China very closely, and follow up on this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022886327

The science has been in-your-face obvious for years, but I've pretty much given up hope on any kind of consensus building to effect change, or change to come from governments at all. If China can act, that bodes well.

[FBaggins]

2. In some ways, they're making great strides

They're putting more energy (pun intended) into hydro/wind/nuclear/solar than anyone else...

... but they also have demand growth that (in real terms) is larger than anything that we've seen before. Which means that even as they build out cleaner options at rates that even they have trouble sustaining... they're also building an incredible amount of new coal-fired generation.

[napoleon_in_rags]

3. That three gorges dam was incredible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam
The scale was just amazing. But beyond that, I haven't heard much about their green energy push, I should look into that.

they're also building an incredible amount of new coal-fired generation.

Man, if we could get just sequestration technology for coal that works even a little, what a difference that would make. There's just so much of it left in the world, that almost any effort seems worthwhile to me.

But if any country can develop and actually implement a strategy on this at a central level, its China. Surely one to watch, like I said I've largely given up hope that any one can do anything on this at a centralized level.

[kristopher]

4. Growth in China Wind Energy Production Exceeds Coal For First Time Ever

They are at least now headed in the right direction.

Growth in China Wind Energy Production Exceeds Coal For First Time Ever
By Li Shuo

Amid all the news about coal and pollution problems in China you might have missed this one: According to new statistics from the China Electricity Council, China’s wind power production actually increased more than coal power production for the first time ever in 2012.

Thermal power use, which is predominantly coal, grew by only about 0.3 percent in China during 2012, an addition of roughly 12 terawatt hours (TWh) more electricity. In contrast, wind power production expanded by about 26 TWh. This rapid expansion brings the total amount of wind power production in China to 100 TWh, surpassing China’s 98 TWh of nuclear power. The biggest increase, however, occurred in hydro power, where output grew by 196 TWh, bringing total hydro production to 864 TWh, due favorable conditions for hydro last year and increased hydro capacity. In addition, the growth of power consumption slowed down — in Chinese terms a modest increase of 5.5 percent — influenced by slower economic growth, and possibly the energy use targets for provinces set by the Chinese central government.

Coal still accounts for 79 percent of electricity production in China, but fortunately that dominance is increasingly challenged by competition from cleaner energy, as well as government policies and public concerns about air pollution. The Chinese government’s 12th five year energy plan (2011-2015) aims for coal to be reduced from 70 percent to 65 percent of energy production by 2015. In contrast, the Chinese government has ambitious targets for wind, solar, and hydro, and plans to increase the share of non-fossil fuels to 30 percent of installed electricity generating capacity by the end of 2015.

Expansion of the coal industry does not have many friends in China anymore. Major increases of coal power in recent years have created not only record climate emissions, but an unprecedented problem of air pollution and water overuse, triggering increased concern among the Chinese urban population and the central government. The record air pollution in January this year has changed the discussion about coal, and now prominent policymakers and opinion leaders, even vice-ministers, call for capping coal use, especially in the eastern populated and industrial areas of China. The air quality targets the government set for 2016 will require cutting coal pollution. Already last year the government set new strict standards for coal power emissions, requiring costly investments in filters. This year the government set new water use targets for provinces, which do not give much room for increased use of water for coal use in key provinces. Now the discussion is around controlling the total consumption of coal, in addition to emissions trading and resource taxes. The coal industry is surrounded by challenges.

There is another, very sobering side to the story, though: ...

http://theenergycollective.com/josephromm/201401/china-wind-energy-more-than-coal-first-time-ever-2012

[GliderGuider]

5. As you say, There is another, very sobering side to the story

There is another, very sobering side to the story, though: additions to coal power capacity, even if they have been slowing down in recent years, still stood at 50 GW last year, even more than investments in wind. So it seems that some of the total coal capacity was not used last year, due to higher coal and transport costs, and increased costs of environmental protection. The economic slowdown, and slowing growth of electricity use, has forced coal to compete with cheaper hydro and even wind. Companies will push to use that new coal capacity this year, so coal power could see some more growth this year than in 2012, unless there are strong mechanisms to cap the growth.

China is walking a tightrope, between energy use, economic growth and environmental decay. I wonder if their economy will crash before or after they kill the planet.

[kristopher]

6. China's thermal coal imports to fall in 2013, first time since 2007-8: Goldman Sachs

China's thermal coal imports to fall in 2013, first time since 2007-8: Goldman Sachs
Perth (Platts)--12Apr2013/555 am EDT/955 GMT

China's imports of thermal coal could contract in 2013 as demand growth in the seaborne market is expected to moderate to 2% over the next four years, Goldman Sachs warned in a research note on Friday.

"We believe 2013 will represent a watershed event for the seaborne market because we expect import volumes to China to contract year on year for the first time since the global financial crisis in 2007-2008," said Australia-based Goldman Sachs commodities analyst Christian Lelong.

Demand from China, the largest importer of thermal coal, has lifted growth in the seaborne market to an average annual rate of 7.2% over the five-year period to 2012, Lelong said.

China switched from being a net coal exporter with a surplus of 29 million mt in 2007 to a net importer with a deficit of 139 million mt last year, he said.

India's coal demand is expected to stay positive over the next few years, but demand from Western markets including Europe are expected to continue on their downward trend, he added.

As a result Goldman Sachs lowered its four-year forecast for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg NAR thermal coal prices, saying that the price ceiling for thermal coal imported into China had fallen.

"On that basis, we still see upside to the thermal coal price, but we downgrade our 2013 forecast to $93/mt [FOB Newcastle], down 6% and our 2014-17 forecasts to $95/mt, down 5%," Lelong said...

http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Coal/8290812

We're moving in the right direction. Let's just hope it accelerates rapidly.

[GliderGuider]

7. Lots of qualifiers in the GS statement. We'll see.

There is much more certainty in the past than the future, for good or ill...

[kristopher]

8. The only certainty is change.