Here comes the story of no hurricanes

[xchrom]

http://grist.org/climate-energy/here-comes-the-story-of-no-hurricanes/

?w=470&h=290
The tracks of all Atlantic hurricanes from 1851 through 2012. So far, 2013 would add nothing to this image: There haven’t been any hurricanes.

From a PR standpoint, it was surely an ingenious idea: Let’s name hurricanes after leading members of Congress who deny that humans are causing global warming! That’s the gist of the “Climate Name Change” campaign that launched last month, and the promotional video has already garnered over 2 million YouTube views.

There’s just one problem: Thus far this season, the hurricanes haven’t shown up. In fact, the dearth of hurricane-strength Atlantic storms up until now, despite blockbuster pre-season forecasts, counts as downright mysterious. “We’ve never seen this level of inactivity with the ocean conditions out there now,” says meteorologist Jeff Masters, who is co-founder of Weather Underground, a popular meteorological website. There has even been speculation that 2013 might rival 2002, a year in which the first hurricane of the season didn’t form until Sept. 11.

Meanwhile, a new scientific paper suggests that climate change will decrease, rather than increase, the likelihood that Superstorm Sandy-like storms — atmospheric black swans that take left turns towards the U.S. East Coast — will strike in the future. And a leaked draft of the U.N.’s forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report has significantly downgraded our confidence in the idea that global warming will lead to more intense hurricanes (or, is already doing so).

It’s more than enough to make a reasonable person wonder: What the heck is up these days with hurricanes — and with global warming’s supposed influence upon them? And do scientists know anything for sure about this, or are they just sticking out a finger in the (very fast) wind?

[PuffedMica]

1. Any particular year's hurricanes are that year's weather

One year of weather is not climate. The accumulated trend over many years defines climate, and 97% of scientists agree that humans are adversely affecting the Earth's climate.

Deniers deserve to have destructive storms named after them, even if it does not happen this year.

[Demeter]

2. Blame the guy who dumped iron into the Pacific.

It's as good as any other guess.

[xchrom]

4. you mean it's still below it's 1981 thru 2010 coverage.

yes, it grew some.



The seasonal decline of extent through the month of August was slightly above average at 56,400 square kilometers (21,800 square miles) per day, but more than a third slower than the record decline rate in August 2012. This year’s August extent was the sixth lowest in the 1979 to 2013 satellite record.

August 2013 ice extent was 2.38 million square kilometers (919,000 square miles) above the record low August extent in 2012. The monthly trend is –10.6% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

[xchrom]

6. evn with the increase it's still below average. -- it's there at the link. nt

[hatrack]

7. "The monthly trend is –10.6% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average." - Was this unclear?