Why the U.N. climate talks keep breaking down, in five simple charts

[polly7]

By Brad Plumer,

Published: November 20 at 1:29

"An old rift between rich and poor has reopened in U.N. climate talks," the AP reports, "as developing countries look for ways to make developed countries accept responsibility for global warming — and pay for it."

In short: Poor countries argue that richer countries are responsible for most of the carbon-dioxide already the atmosphere, so they should pay for the damage caused by global warming. The rich countries, for their part, point out that you also have to look at future emissions when divvying up blame — which puts the spotlight on fast-growing nations like China and India.

That dispute has taken all sorts of forms. The world's wealthiest nations have offered $35 billion in climate aid since 2010 (sort of), but they haven't quite followed through on their pledges to increase that amount in the years ahead. Meanwhile, the United States has flatly objected to efforts to assign legal responsibility for specific weather damages caused by global warming.

We can break this argument down into chart form, with the help of the Global Carbon Project, which just released a fantastic presentation (pdf) on worldwide carbon emissions. Here are five particularly useful graphs:

Full article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/11/20/why-the-u-n-climate-talks-keep-breaking-down-in-charts/?a

[Nihil]

1. Five interesting graphs there ... thanks for posting!

It's worth reading the article (even considering where it is).

[CRH]

2. Seems a little after the fact, but, ...

the link in the block quote to the Global Carbon Project report is worth viewing for anyone interested in cumulative carbon emissions and why there is bound to be some confrontation in the conventions. A few interesting facts from the graphs and report below.

- Global emissions from cement has received a lot of press, and result in about 5% of present annual emissions. In 2012, coal has resulted in 43%, oil 33%, gas 18% and flaring 1%.

- Cumulative emissions by country between 1870 and 2012, ... US 26%, EU(28) 23%, China 11%, and India 4%. So the cumulative emissions of the US and EU, a combined population of 800 million is about 49%, the two countries with the fastest growing emissions China and India, have historic cumulative emissions of 15% for over 2 billion in total population.

- Per Capita Emissions - the US is making progress and continues to decline in per capita emissions from over 5.2 tC/p in 2005 to 4.4 tC/p in 2012. To put this in perspective the US per capita emissions at 4.4tC/p is twice that of the EU(28) and China, both at 1.9 tC/p, and India is 1/8th the present per capita emissions of the US.

- The graph for emissions scenarios demonstrated we are following RCP8.5. This puts the world on track for 3.2C - 5.4C rise by 2100. This is compared to global mean temperatures from 1750, when concentrations were 277 ppm. 2012 atmospheric concentrations settled at 393 ppm. At the low end 3.2C, is four times the deviation from mean pre industrial temperatures we are at today, .8C. The high end will be even more eventful, at near seven times the present deviation.

- Total global emissions in 2012 were up 43% from 1990 levels.

- Though land use change has seen a substantial reduction since 1990, it still represents 29% of the historic cumulative emissions as of 2012. Coal is listed at 34%, oil 25%, gas 10%, all other 2%.

- The total carbon budget from 1750 - 2012 (277ppm - 393ppm); coal represents 87 ppm, oil 64 ppm, gas 26 ppm, cement 5 ppm, and land use change 97 ppm; for a total of 279 ppm anthropogenic induced emissions. During this period, 84 ppm C has been sequestered in land sinks, and 78 ppm C sequestered in ocean sinks. That leaves a deficit of 116 ppm C floating around in the atmosphere adding up to the present 393 ppm C.

It should be noted, nowhere in these graphs, were CO2e figures quoted.