IEA Boosts 2014 Global Oil Demand Forecast on U.S. Recovery

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-11/iea-boosts-2014-global-oil-demand-estimate-amid-u-s-recovery.html

Global oil demand in 2014 will be higher than previously forecast, after consumption in the U.S. rebounded to its strongest level in five years, the International Energy Agency said.

The IEA estimated today in its monthly oil market report that demand will increase by 1.2 million barrels a day, or 1.3 percent, to 92.4 million a day next year, raising its projection from last month by 240,000 a day. U.S. fuel use rose above 20 million barrels a day in November for the first time since 2008, according to preliminary data. While the agency boosted its forecast for the crude volume OPEC will need to supply, “making room” for the potential return of Iranian exports “could be a challenge for other producers” in the group, it said.

“The geopoliticals are now bearish, while the fundamentals are bullish,” Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts, said before the IEA published its report. “This is quite a change from just recently. People are anticipating tighter supplies as we go into next year. Demand will be higher.”

Brent crude futures have slipped 1.4 percent this year, trading at about $110 a barrel in London today amid constrained fuel use and diminishing concern that tensions with Iran will escalate into a conflict that disrupts Middle Eastern crude exports. A “reasonably robust recovery” and lower gasoline prices in the U.S. are helping stoke demand in the world’s largest oil user, the IEA said.