The mysterious story of the battery startup that promised GM a 200-mile electric car

[BlueStreak]

http://qz.com/158373/envia-the-mysterious-story-of-the-battery-startup-that-promised-gm-a-200-mile-electric-car/

At the end of November 2012, Atul Kapadia and Sujeet Kumar hosted the staff of their startup company for a holiday lunch of Mexican food at a Palo Alto, California restaurant. For days, the pair—the CEO and CTO, respectively, of a lithium-ion battery company called Envia Systems—had awaited an email from General Motors.

It was to contain a deal rare to an industry newcomer—a contract worth tens and possibly hundreds of millions of dollars to provide the electric central nervous system for two showcase GM models including the next-generation Chevy Volt. Untested small suppliers almost never get in the door of the world’s major automakers, which regard them as too risky to rely on. But GM was won over by what seemed to be the world’s best lithium-ion battery—a cell that, if all went well, would catapult the company to a commanding position in the industry with a middle-class electric car that traveled 200 miles on a single charge and rid motorists of the “range anxiety” that disquieted them about such vehicles. GM would have the jump on the high-end Tesla S, the only other major model with that range but one that would cost much more. For Envia, the contract could lead to an IPO that would make both men rich.

But the talking had gone on so long and with such uncertainty that neither man had even told Envia’s staff scientists of the impending deal. Even if they felt more confident, they could not have said anything, since such news could affect GM’s share price. Word had leaked around the Envia lab anyway. An edginess hung over the lunch

[BlueStreak]

1. A lot of people assumed batteries would follow "Moore's Law"

i.e. a doubling of capability every 18 months. Reality is that we are late in the technology curve and real advances are very hard to come by.

If you look at NiMH AA cells for example, there was a very rapid advance from 1300 mAH to about 2400 mAH. But since that time, there has been almost no advancement.

That same thing has been happening all over the battery industry. That is why several car companies really do seem to be committed to bringing hydrogen fuel cells to market. We know we can get fast refueling time, and an acceptable range out of that. The issues with fuel cells are cost and availability of fueling stations, but those are more solvable than the problems that confront battery designers, it seems.

[kristopher]

2. I don't know who makes up that "lot of people"

I've never heard that expectation from anyone. Of course, even though I know a few people working in that area, I certainly don't know everyone.

Here is a sample of the expectations *I* think are most common:
 2015 GOAL: Reduce the production cost of a PHEV battery to $300/kWh (70% below 2008 value)

 EV Everywhere: Reduce the production cost of an EV battery to $125/kWh by 2022

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/merit_review_2012/plenary/vtpn07_es_howell_2012_o.pdf

There are a number of promising avenues being followed, but expecting 18 month doublings is unrealistic, to put it mildly.

This is the company I think is most promising. They did some breakthrough research that was published in 2008, and this is where they are in the product development process:

Commercialization of High-Capacity Electric Vehicle Battery Materials by Nanosys Approved for by DOE in $11 Million Program
Funds to Help Create EV Batteries with 300 Mile Range at Less Than $250/kWh

Palo Alto, Calif., August 11, 2011 – Nanosys, Inc., an advanced materials architect, today announced that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded it funds to refine and bring to scale its SiNANOdeTM materials for the automotive market. These innovations will enable Electric Vehicles (EVs) to travel 300 miles on a single charge. In addition to the primary DOE award of $4.8 million, approximately $6 million will be spent, through sub-awards and matches by the DOE and Nanosys, in the development and commercialization of advanced material technologies and manufacturing in the United States.

“We are honored the DOE has selected Nanosys for this grant,” said Jason Hartlove, president and CEO of Nanosys. “The future of a clean energy economy depends on increased adoption of electric and hybrid electric (PHEV) vehicles. Until such vehicles are able to achieve substantial operating range on a single charge with the economics of combustion vehicles, acceptance will be limited to early adopters. The commercialization of architected material solutions like SiNANOde provide the breakthroughs needed to progress on the path to achieving those goals.”

The grant is a part of the DOE’s larger mission to accelerate the development and deployment of advanced vehicle technologies through targeted programs aimed at increasing vehicle efficiency. DOE’s comprehensive approach is aimed at creating new innovations throughout the vehicle, including high capacity electric vehicle batteries and components that should significantly exceed existing state-of-the-art technologies in terms of performance and/or cost. The agency has set a target for bringing the cost of lithium-ion batteries down to $250/kWh and increasing capacity to 300 miles per charge for the next generation of EVs.

In recent tests, Nanosys’ SiNANOdeTM anode material has doubled capacity while providing breakthrough charge/discharge cycle life improvements. Nanosys will use the DOE funds to accelerate development through purchases of additional equipment and the hiring of additional staff...

http://www.nanosysinc.com/2011/08/11/commercialization-of-high-capacity-electric-vehicle-battery-materials-by-nanosys-approved-for-by-doe-in-11-million-program/

There are several other approaches that are also extremely promising. I just happen to have been following this company since their initial research was announced.

[BlueStreak]

3. All the people who were saying it was a foregone conclusion that EV cars

would be taking over pretty soon.

It is not just the cost. It is the energy density that sucks up too much weight and space. It is the recharge times that aren't really improving much despite all the hype.

We haven't even seen a substantial boost in the EV range of the Volt or Leaf, have we? And they are in 4th model years now.

How many of these battery companies with the big claims have gone bankrupt now?

I'm all for improvements in battery technology. I'm just saying it is going about 1/10th the pace that a lot of people have suggested. And you asked who is "a lot of people"? Well we can look at the Energy Secretary as one source of overly-optimistic claims.

I don't expect to ever own a pure EV, but I'd like to see batteries get better so that we can have a decent plug-in hybrid SUV that can do at least 40 miles on a battery charge.

[kristopher]

4. Bullpucky.

No one has made the claims You assert. Put another way, Your perceptions aren't valid. I gave You a sample of the actual nature of expectations and i did it for a reason. If You want to rebut that sample of work out of a National Lab, then You'll need more than Your say-so.

Second it the claim that no improvements have been made to date. That also isn't true. There are a lot of automakers out there employing the technologies of a lot of different companies. You can't *possibly* have a grasp of the comparative nature of all those technologies and without that Your claim is bullpucky on its face.

Merry Christmas.

[BlueStreak]

5. Where are the products?

Where is the improvement in the Leaf or Volt?

Where is an SUV or larger crossover getting around 40 MPG?

Where is the successful battery company (defining success as actually delivering on the promises, nt just successfully getting millions in government grants)?

The reality is more like the article I cited in the OP. Lots of people saying they are going to have breakthroughs, but none of it leads anywhere significant.

I am genuinely interested in the above questions. I'd like to buy a vehicle like this. I'd like to invest in a company that can make it happen. I have evaluated lots of companies with an eye toward buying their stock (although most are private), and I keep seeing the same thing over and over. Loads of hype leading nowhere. If you know of potential winners here, please help a brother out.

[kristopher]

6. There you go acting as if progress is "a doubling every 18 months" - that is a BS premise.

My posts are very clear and their content makes it evident your claims are FUD.

We've gone from a couple of pioneering models like the Leaf and Volt to a situation where every automaker is rolling out some variety of electric vehicle while some, like BMW, are electrifying their entire line up.

You have offered ZERO support for your statements; there is certainly none in the article you linked.

[BlueStreak]

7. I said nothing of the sort

I asked where the improvements were in the Volt and Leaf. That isn't 18 months. That has been 4 years without any improvements. I'm not asking for 100% improvement in 18 months. Where is there even a 25% improvement in 4 years?

I asked you for the names of battery companies that were actually likely to be successful and you offered nothing. If I am so wrong, all you have to do is offer up a couple of examples.

[kristopher]

8. Do you have a detailed history of all of the research and deployment of batteries in the market?

No, of course you don't. And as I said your claims can only be show valid with that evidence; what two particular models have or have not done isn't in any sense a proof of your claims. That said, I have little doubt you are wrong on the specifics related to those models also.
For example is their cost/kwh the same today as it was 4 years ago?
What chemistries do they have in the pipeline?
What improvements have their suppliers made in manufacturing systems?
Did it occur to you that they would rather focus on those and other similar areas before they worry about changing the on board performance of those specific models?

Give the FUD a rest.

[BlueStreak]

9. I've looked at every battery company I could find

And I see the same picture everywhere I look. If you know any, even one, that doesn't fit my description, please name names. If you can't identify a single company that is actually making real progress toward a product that is likely to change the status quo in the EV market, then that speaks for itself.

[kristopher]

10. The only thing it speak for is your inadequacies

And your desire to spread FUD.

You've shown nothing of substance, I repeat Nothing Of Substance, to support your claims.

Just one shred of the mountain of evidence that disproves your thesis is the fact the every single manufacturer is electrifying their line up just as fast as they possibly can.

BMW to Electrify entire model range

BMW product chief Herbert Diess says “Electricification will be a central thread in what we do, be it plug-in hybrid, hybrid or full electrification".

Diess told Autocar "all BMW models will soon need to be sold with some form of electrification - be it in hybrid form or pure electric drive" as it is the only way of meeting stringent emissions regulations in the future.

“We are planning to have a plug-in hybrid in each and every model series,” BMW’s head of production for large vehicles, Peter Wolf, told motoring.com.au. “So far we have the 3, 5 and 7 Series as full hybrids, and at the other end of the bookshelf the i3 and the i8. We are planning to work on that with the X5 eDrive, but at this stage, the plug-in is a completely new concept, and the battery is very specific [to the X5].”

Diess explained that European customers are likely to see most of the new electric-drive technology first, as regulations here are stricter than elsewhere....

http://www.electric-vehiclenews.com/2013/11/bmw-to-electrify-entire-model-range.html

We're done.

[BlueStreak]

11. You still haven't identified any battery companies

I gave you three chances, so I'm not going to waste any more time here.