The face of "The Hard Path" - Belarus On The Russian Energy Needle

[kristopher]

Last edited Mon Jan 13, 2014, 05:55 AM - Edit history (1)

To fully appreciate the significance of the scenario laid out in Belarus On The Russian Energy Needle, those not familiar with the piece by Amory Lovins (first link) might want to take the time to give it a read. Be sure to review the update and graph on the final page of the PDF. This paper is to energy what The Silent Spring was to environmentalism.

Since there is very little on which to base genuine criticism of Lovins' work or career, fans of the hard path inevitably try character assassination based on the fact that Lovins' is a global leader working in the field of energy efficiency. If you believe that working with all comers in the area of energy efficiency is cause to reject the ideas of one of the world's leading authorities on getting rid of carbon, then you might want to stop reading now.

If, however, you want to gain a fuller understanding of the consequences of our energy choices, keep reading. And again, be sure to examine the 'update' chart and its explanation on the last page of the Lovins pdf.

http://preview.tinyurl.com/Lovins-Paths

With that out of the way, here is

Belarus On The Russian Energy Needle
Ryhor Astapenia 09 January 2014

This year, Russia agreed to supply Belarus with discounted oil only for the next six months, rather than for the whole year.

The size and conditions for further shipments will depend on Belarus’ participation in specific integration projects and the sale of several companies to Russia. All of this shows how the Kremlin uses Belarus' energy dependence to get what it wants.

Energy remains an area in which Russia has a very strong position in Belarus. Russia dominates the nation's gas infrastructure, oversees the work of its oil refineries and has significant influence on its electrical industry.

Although the building of a nuclear power plant looks economically beneficial, Russia`s control over the project, combined with Belarus' doubtful ability to repay the accompanying $9bn loan, raises many questions.

Currently, Russia is not using all of its energy potential to blackmail Belarus. Kremlin has possibilities to bankrupt not only individual Belarusian enterprises, but also ...

http://belarusdigest.com/story/belarus-russian-energy-needle-16594

[pscot]

1. It's a business arangement

like with the Corlioni family. Belarus can't say no. It also suggests a low level of environmental awareness or concern. As for Lovins, 3 acres of small print at this hour of the evening is a daunting assignment. He's too much the idealist for my taste anyway.

[kristopher]

2. It is about vulnerability, absolute control, and exploitation

Lovins' article is a bit long, but it isn't a slog. If nothing else, I'd recommend at least looking at the last page. It compares what actually happened in growth of energy demand with
a) the predictions of the energy establishment from the time the article was written in 1976 and
b) the value of energy efficiency that Lovins predicted would act to temper growth.

This is important in understanding differing views today on how we should address the problem of carbon emissions.

[kristopher]

3. Japan as an example of the effect of centralized energy (the hard path)

The remainder of article reviews the process of decision-making that was involved in the formulation of these two conflicting energy policies.

Japan goes back to the future to affirm energy ‘foundation’
BY PHILIP WHITE
SPECIAL TO THE JAPAN TIMES
JAN 12, 2014

ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA – On Dec. 6 the Japanese government released a new draft Basic Energy Plan for public comment. This will replace the 2010 BEP, which is still legally current despite the fact that its foundations were blown away by the March 11, 2011, nuclear accident at the Fukushima No. 1 plant.

In September 2012, the then Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government issued an “Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment,” which set the unprecedented goal of phasing out nuclear power by 2039. But this did not have the same legal status as the BEP, and when the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won back power in the December 2012 election, it declared that it would review the DPJ’s strategy from scratch, stating that it did not support a nuclear phase-out.

The recently released draft BEP goes as close as possible to preserving the pre-Fukushima nuclear status quo, but with all nuclear power plants currently closed down and public opinion still strongly in favor of a nuclear phase out, it was unable to set ambitious targets for nuclear energy.

The 2010 BEP aimed for 50 percent of electricity generation from nuclear power by 2030, with at least 14 new nuclear power plants being constructed in that time, but the recently released draft eschews targets altogether, settling instead for qualitative statements affirming the continuing role of nuclear power. It states that nuclear energy is an “important baseload power source that serves as a foundation” for the stability of Japan’s energy supply.

The word “foundation” was added for emphasis...

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2014/01/12/commentary/japan-goes-back-to-the-future-to-affirm-energy-foundation/#.UtO_BHl0Uy4