Rate Of Future Sea Level Rise 10X That Observed To Date; BEST Case 7.5 Feet

[hatrack]

EDIT

In a new paper published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), I analyze the growth of the locked-in amount of sea level rise and other implications of Levermann and colleagues’ work. This article and its interactive map are based on this new PNAS paper, and they include extended results.

To begin with, it appears that the amount of carbon pollution to date has already locked in more than 4 feet of sea level rise past today’s levels. That is enough, at high tide, to submerge more than half of today’s population in 316 coastal cities and towns (home to 3.6 million) in the lower 48 states.

By the end of this century, if global climate emissions continue to increase, that may lock in 23 feet of sea level rise, and threaten 1,429 municipalities that would be mostly submerged at high tide. Those cities have a total population of 18 million. But under a very low emissions scenario, our sea level rise commitment might be limited to about 7.5 feet, which would threaten 555 coastal municipalities: some 900 fewer communities than in the higher-emissions scenario.

To develop such figures, I combined my sea level debt findings with analysis from Climate Central’s Surging Seas project, which is a national assessment and mapping of coastal vulnerability in the U.S. based primarily on elevation and census data.

EDIT

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/sea-level-rise-locking-in-quickly-cities-threatened-16296

[hatrack]

1. Oh, and just FYI . . . .

The interactive map at the link above provides a worst-case by the year 2100 of 23 feet, one inch.

[gordianot]

2. Unfortunately a real disaster such as uncontrolled rising sea level is what it will take.....

to convince some climate change is real, even then the totally ignorant will still manage to deny what is happening.

[MisterP]

3. same with creationism: they won't be convinced because a billionaire needs them to be unconvincable

[gordianot]

4. The more ignorant you keep the sheep the better.

We cannot have people thinking logically delving into the scientific method or developing critical thinking skills.

[MisterP]

7. well, they still DO like the science that gives them MANPADs, GMOs, and fracking

so there's an internal tension

[gordianot]

9. Science did not give that to them God and wealthy servants.

[elzenmahn]

5. Look at all of the major cities being threatened...

New York City, Miami, NOLA, Houston and the Texas Coast, The San Francisco Bay Area and and Sacramento Delta, Los Angeles and the San Fernando Valley....

...imagine the hit to the US Economy if these cities are put underwater.

Maybe if the economic case is made, the Fat Cats will listen. They only do if it's their wallets being drained.

[TreasonousBastard]

6. Don't forget the possibility of the Gulf Stream...

reversing course due to Arctic fresh water melt and causing another ice age.

Problem solved, eh?

[LouisvilleDem]

8. I think he got his units wrong

According to the article "every degree Fahrenheit of global warming due to carbon pollution, global average sea level will rise by about 4.2 feet". However, a quick look at the 20th century shows that while we saw temperatures increase by about 1 degree Fahrenheit, global average sea level only increased by 4.2 inches, not feet. Makes a huge difference...