Atmospheric CO2 Likely Above 400 For About A Month This Year; Perma 400+ "Matter Of Time" - Keeling

[hatrack]

Last year, atmospheric carbon dioxide briefly crossed 400 parts per million for the first time in human history. However, it didn’t cross that threshold until mid-May. This year’s first 400 ppm reading came a full two months earlier this past week and the seeming inexorable upward march is likely to race past another milestone next month.

“We’re already seeing values over 400. Probably we’ll see values dwelling over 400 in April and May. It’s just a matter of time before it stays over 400 forever,” said Ralph Keeling in a blog post.

Keeling runs a carbon dioxide monitoring program for Scripps Institute of Oceanography, a position he took over from his father who started it. The program takes daily measurements from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, which sits at 11,141 feet on a volcano’s northern flank. Measurements have been recorded there continuously since March 1958. They’ve risen steadily since the first measurement of 313 ppm as humans have continued to burn more fossil fuels.

EDIT

Atmospheric carbon dioxide usually peaks in May. If levels continue to rise in the next few months — and there’s no reason to believe they won’t — April or May will likely be the first time the monthly atmospheric carbon dioxide average will be above 400 ppm. Estimates for when the atmosphere last contained this much carbon dioxide range from 800,000 years ago all the way to 15 million years. While 400 ppm is mostly a symbolic number, the climate changes it could cause are not. Among other impacts, increased carbon dioxide contributes to heating the planet’s surface and ocean temperatures, which in turn melts ice and raises ocean levels.

EDIT

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/co2-on-path-to-cross-400-ppm-threshold-for-a-month-17189

[Warren Stupidity]

1. I remember when 350 was the number.

We will do nothing as we cross 400 too.

[GliderGuider]

2. Daily readings as of March 18:

March 17 - 401.20
March 16 - 400.01
March 15 - 399.71
March 14 - 399.99
March 13 - 400.21

Almost as much fun as watching the Arctic ice melt.

[hatrack]

3. But will the Scripps site trend on Twitter and Facebook?!?!?

That's what's really important!

[enough]

4. So, no coincidence that funding for this research is being curtailed. Best just not to know

the bad news.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/112766583

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2644

[hatrack]

5. They've raised about $17,000 so far, but could certainly use more

Maybe a bake sale?

An Update on Keeling Curve Funding Support
Outreach Posted on March 17, 2014 — No Comments ↓

The last few months have been an interesting time for the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego O2 and CO2 programs, as we faced a very challenging budget situation. The central activity of these programs involves making observations of atmospheric CO2 and O2 concentrations that are critical to understanding the state of our planet. Some of you may have read the letter of appeal that I wrote back in December 2013, and I want to summarize where things now stand.

As background, the Scripps CO2 and O2 programs have been supported over the years almost entirely through a bundle of federal grants, typically each lasting three years or so, with several grants running at one time. This process is haphazard, and its success has rested on showing that our long-term observational efforts fit into the ever-shifting priorities of the federal agencies. This past year was especially difficult, as several grants came to the end of their funding cycles and the landscape for support within the federal agencies, for a variety of complex reasons, was especially problematic.

Faced with the prospect of shutting down key elements of the program and the loss of critical staff, we made a concerted campaign to patch together enough support to sustain the program through this calendar year. The hope was that the prospect for federal funding might improve in a year’s time. We therefore redoubled our efforts to secure all forms of support, not just from federal sources, but also private sources, including turning to crowdsourcing.

So where are things now? The situation is still very uncertain, but more hopeful.

The crowdsourcing campaign has been successful in terms of raising the sum of $17,400. This sum may seem small compared to the total annual operating costs of around $1 million for the O2 and CO2 programs. Importantly, the attention raised by this effort has paid dividends much larger than actual dollar sum. I want to offer a heartfelt thanks to everyone who contributed. It has been gratifying to see help come in from people all over the world who understand the value of long-term observations such as the Keeling Curve. It really helps to know that there is a public support base that we can turn to in tough times like we have faced lately. This funding will be used to support key elements of the long-term program. We have daily needs that range from maintaining the supply of calibration gases in our instruments to Mauna Loa to the analysis of air samples brought into our La Jolla lab from stations ranging from the South Pole to the northernmost point of Alaska.

The greater awareness to the Scripps CO2 and O2 programs has likely played a role in the emergence of new funding opportunities that we are actively pursuing. We currently have three significant grant proposals pending, two of which are new since December. If these are successful, the base support for the program may be restored by later this year. Still, we don’t know yet how these are going to turn out, and the immediate funding situation is still very urgent.

Again, thanks for the generous support. While funding these programs has always been a struggle, they continue to provide groundbreaking insights into how our world is changing and to help shape the discussions of what best can be done about it. It seems likely that their continuity may increasingly depend on private sources of support in the future.

— Ralph Keeling

http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/an-update-on-keeling-curve-funding-support/

[GliderGuider]

6. Daily readings as of March 19

March 18 - 401.18
March 17 - 401.09
March 16 - 400.04
March 15 - 399.71
March 14 - 399.99

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

I think we're going to do better than a month above 400.

[GliderGuider]

7. March 20...

March 19 - 401.18
March 18 - 401.18
March 17 - 401.12
March 16 - 400.13
March 15 - 399.71

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

I think the time bomb is out of time. How about you?

[Nihil]

8. Blip ... blip ... blip ... blip ...

... blip ... ... beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep.

(With a "DNR" label attached)

[GliderGuider]

9. March 21...

March 20 - 400.87
March 19 - 401.28
March 18 - 401.18
March 17 - 401.12
March 16 - 400.13

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html