Scientists on where to be in the 21st century based on sustainability

[GliderGuider]

Scientists on where to be in the 21st century based on sustainability

Five scientists have written a peer-reviewed article about where the best and worst places to be in America are. They look at how sustainable regions will be in the future, when you take into account climate change, energy reserves, population, sea-level rise, increasingly strong hurricanes, and other factors. Two of the scientists, David Pimentel and Charles Hall, are “rock stars” in the field of ecology.

Several areas of the U.S. will have compromised sustainability in the 21st century. These include the southern Great Plains, the Southwest, the southern half of California, the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, especially southern Louisiana and Southern Florida, and areas of dense population such as south Florida and the Northeast.

The least sustainable region will likely be the southwestern part of the country from the southern plains to California. Climate change is already impacting this region and it is projected to get hotter and drier. Winter precipitation is predicted to be more rain and less snow. These trends will lead to less water for direct human consumption and for agriculture. This is critical since practically all agriculture in the region is irrigated. The Southwest has the lowest level of ecosystem services of any region in the U.S. California is the most populous state in the nation with most people living in the southern half of the state, the area with highest water stress. The Los Angeles metro area is the second largest in the nation. But population density is low over much of the rest of the region and is concentrated in large urban areas such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Albuquerque. California is one of the most important food producing states in the nation but this will be threatened by water scarcity and increasing energy costs. Much of the region is strongly dependent on tourism and spending discretionary income, especially Las Vegas, so future economic health will likely be compromised in coming decades. Many cities and regions whose economy is dependent on tourism will have compromised sustainability.

Descriptions of regions in the article:

• Most negatively affected areas: Southwest including much of California & Southern Great Plains. All of these regions will be drier with less water at the same time population is growing.
  
• decreased fresh water availability: Southern Great Plains, SouthWest (Lake Mead has a 50% chance of drying up within 2 decades)
  
• Eastern half of U.S.: abundant natural resources but avoid megaregions
  
• Poor soil: southwest
  
• Severest climate change impacts: Southwest
  
• Driest, hottest, most extreme droughts and floods: Southwest
  
• Most tree deaths, super forest fires, loss of species, dust: Southwest
  
• Snow melting too fast: West Coast – fewer crops, especially California which grows 1/3 of America’s food
  
• Flooding: Mississippi basin due to more intense storms in the future
  
• Rising sea level: coastal zones
  
• stronger hurricanes: Gulf and Atlantic coasts from warming surface waters of the oceans. Hurricanes are also expected to become more frequent.
  
• Hurricane surge: Gulf and Atlantic Coasts with New Orleans the worst threatened
  
• Mississippi delta: resources of the river can be used to rebuild and restore the rich natural systems of the area
  
• Energy scarcity will affect everyone everywhere
  
• Less rain: great plains
  
• Ogallala aquifer depletion: great plains (energy scarcity will add to the cost and difficulties of pumping the water up)

There is much more in the article. The full 16-page paper is available here.

[postulater]

1. Lots of Where Not To Be.

Now, where should we be?

[Demeter]

2. I'm there, and I'm not going to tell you

First, because all the people who left here seeking fame and fortune will be kicking themselves...

and second, because nobody will believe it. Because it's been written off, stripped of assets, drowned in insult and predatory capitalism (because the Capitalists plan to take it all for themselves).