Bloomberg Projects Another 10 Years Of Growing Chinese Coal Use

[hatrack]

Coal power generation in China will peak in 2024 as the country shifts to renewables, analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance predict.

As China considers an emissions cap and amid rising concern over smog in its large cities, the country’s plans to expand polluting coal power generation are under scrutiny. One Chinese energy expert told RTCC he hoped peak coal could come as early as next year. However, BNEF forecasts coal will continue to dominate the Chinese electricity mix for the next ten years. China will add 1,000GW of renewable power generation capacity – mainly solar and wind – to its energy mix by 2030, researchers say.

The Asia Pacific region will account for more than half of net new power capacity to the end of next decade, according BNEF’s 2030 market outlook report, with China the largest single market.

Milo Sjardin, head of Asia Pacific for BNEF, says: “The period to 2030 is going to see spectacular growth in solar in this region, with nearly 800GW of rooftop and utility-scale PV added. This will be driven by economics, not subsidies ‒ our analysis suggests that solar will be fully competitive with other power sources by 2020, only six years from now.

EDIT

http://www.rtcc.org/2014/07/01/chinese-coal-power-to-peak-in-2024-bloomberg/

[Benton D Struckcheon]

1. Two things

1. That's putting a pretty pessimistic spin on what was actually supposed to be an upbeat article on renewables.
2. In any case, it's based on the usual extrapolations from present reality with some increment thrown in to account for the declining cost of renewables. I'm working on it, but what no one accounts for is that if you get an import replacement effect, that will overwhelm everything else and send fossil fuels right out the window. It amazes me how people don't really pay attention to Yogi Berra: you can see a lot by looking.