Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
Keystone climate impacts could be 4 times higher than estimate, study says
In the study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers at the Stockholm Environment Institute write that widely quoted U.S. State Department findings that the oilsands pipeline wouldn't make a significant difference missed a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.
"It didn't appear that they looked at the market implications," said co-author Peter Erickson. "If the Keystone pipeline were to enable a greater rate of extraction of the oilsands, would that not increase global fuel supplies, which might then decrease prices and therefore allow a little bit more global consumption?
"That's the analysis that we did here and we found that it could be the greatest emissions impact of the pipeline."
Erickson and co-author Michael Lazarus used figures from previous research and international agencies that mathematically describe how oil prices affect consumption. They found that a slightly lower price created by every barrel of increased oilsands production enabled by Keystone XL would increase global oil consumption by slightly more than half a barrel.
The capacity of the pipeline proposed by Calgary-based TransCanada Corp. (TSX:TRP) would be about 820,000 barrels a day. If every barrel of that came from new production, the annual carbon impact of Keystone XL could be up to 110 million tonnes — four times the maximum State Department estimate of up to 27 million tonnes.
The authors acknowledge their study doesn't answer whether Keystone XL would encourage oilsands expansion or simply provide an outlet for growth that would have happened anyway.
Environmentalists maintain the former.
From: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/keystone-climate-impacts-could-be-4-times-higher-than-estimate-study-says-1.2732693"It didn't appear that they looked at the market implications," said co-author Peter Erickson. "If the Keystone pipeline were to enable a greater rate of extraction of the oilsands, would that not increase global fuel supplies, which might then decrease prices and therefore allow a little bit more global consumption?
"That's the analysis that we did here and we found that it could be the greatest emissions impact of the pipeline."
Erickson and co-author Michael Lazarus used figures from previous research and international agencies that mathematically describe how oil prices affect consumption. They found that a slightly lower price created by every barrel of increased oilsands production enabled by Keystone XL would increase global oil consumption by slightly more than half a barrel.
The capacity of the pipeline proposed by Calgary-based TransCanada Corp. (TSX:TRP) would be about 820,000 barrels a day. If every barrel of that came from new production, the annual carbon impact of Keystone XL could be up to 110 million tonnes — four times the maximum State Department estimate of up to 27 million tonnes.
The authors acknowledge their study doesn't answer whether Keystone XL would encourage oilsands expansion or simply provide an outlet for growth that would have happened anyway.
Environmentalists maintain the former.