Germany's Solar revolution threatens fossil fuel based generation

[eridani]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/05/1334333/-Upcoming-solar-storage-parity-in-Germany-represent-threat-to-fossil-fuel-industry



In Fossil Fuel Generator Industry Will Be Hit Hardest By Energy Storage, Giles Parkinson, of CleanTechnica describes a new report from the investment bank HSBC that predicts "conventional energy generators will be the biggest losers from the upcoming energy storage boom, as both consumers and grid operators look to battery and other storage technologies."

Already under pressure from the rapidly declining prices of rooftop solar collectors and large-scale solar and wind generation, the declining prices of battery storage portends greater challenges ahead for traditional fossil fuel based electrical generators.

A major new analysis from global investment bank HSBC – Energy Storage, Power to the People – says the boom days for the fossil fuel generation are over. “There is no prospect of any return to anywhere near the level of profitability seen in the latter part of the last decade in generation,” it writes. [...] Its major conclusion is that affordable battery storage will increase distributed generation – solar panels on household and business rooftops – and further reduce demand from the grid.

On top of that, grid operators are also likely to use large-scale battery storage to balance demand and supply and for smart grid enhancements. That’s more bad news for conventional power generators. Once again, it says, the revolution will be led by Germany, notwithstanding the major initiatives in California and China.

“The German energy transition encourages the retail customer to become a ‘pro-sumer’,” the HSBC analysis notes. And it says that domestic storage of solar-generated power is set to take off. ... We believe that in markets such as Germany, households who are in ideological agreement with the drive towards renewables, who wish to be more in control of their own power supply and consumption (ie less of a “consumer” and more of a “pro-sumer”), and who are aware that the financial commitment is long at 20 years, will be prepared to embrace the battery storage principle.”

[CaptainTruth]

1. Excellent news. We aren't that far from grid parity.

I wish there were more incentives for solar (& energy efficency in general) in the US. It seems like all (or most of) the tax incentives are gone.

The increase of this "pro-sumer" model illustrates a pattern I've seen in several functions & technologies. Consider computing. For hundreds of years the function of computing was highly distributed, individual people used an abacus or pencil & paper for computation. Then as technology advanced the first computers were developed (big things with tons of vacuum tubes filling a whole room) & for a while computing became highly centralized. Computers were only in relatively few locations, only the government or big businesses had them. Then as technology became more advanced computers became smaller & cheaper & computing became highly distributed again, the average person could have one in their home.

That pattern, the advancement of technology taking a function from being highly distributed (everyone doing it themselves), to highly centralized (only done in a relative few locations), back to highly distributed (people doing it themselves again) is the pattern I have seen. It's playing out yet again for the function of power generation. My dad & grandfather generated their own power on the farm, they burned wood (sometimes coal) for heat & had a wincharger to generate electricity for the AM radio they had. Power generation was completely distributed, individual farms & households generated their own power. Then, technology advanced, large power plants were built, & power generation became highly centralized. Technology advanced further, & now power generation is becoming distributed again, with individual households able to generate their own power again ... as my grandfather did on his farm ... albeit with much more technology than grandpa ever had.

[ladjf]

2. Great news! Smart people. Maybe that free University tuition is helping out. nt