Economic Collapse Will Limit Climate Change, Predicts Climate Scientist

[Binkie The Clown]

From Huff Post Business:

---SNIP---
To wrap up the interview, I asked Christopher Reyer how much hotter he thought the planet would be by the year 2100. "I'm not sure," he replied, "I'm not an expert on the policy side." I persisted, asking him not for an official projection, just for his best personal guess, a single number. He visibly relaxed.

"I guess it should be between three and four degrees hotter. We used to think that we were headed for +8°C, but that will never happen. We are not even on track for +6°C because economies will be collapsing long before we get there. We know that after +2°C, dangerous things start happening, and we start passing crucial tipping points, like the West Antarctica ice sheet collapse, which has reportedly already begun."

---SNIP---
Oh, so that's what the climate scientist was trying to say all along: We face an avalanche of global disasters during our lifetime, and unless we slam the brakes on carbon pollution fast, the global economy will collapse to boot.

(more at link)

[GliderGuider]

1. It's the only logical conclusion

Economic activity is what's causing climate change (along with the rest of the litany of doom). So only a lack of economic activity will put the brakes on it.

Those who imagine that ecologically harmless economic activity is possible are the most unaware, ignorant and/or deluded souls on the planet.

[Binkie The Clown]

2. Mother Nature's intelligence at work:

Or rather, a self-correcting planetary system that works to destroy the cause of the problem. If economic activity is the cause of the problem, then the solution, from nature's perspective, is to make economic activity impossible. Problem solved.

Or, from a less teleological point of view: fouling the nest is never a good idea.

[GliderGuider]

3. Speaking cybernetically, it's the system's big negative feedback loop.

When we recognize that nature is part of the big system that envelopes all human activity, the operation of the feedback becomes obvious.

[phantom power]

4. I think he's being overly optimistic

Climate change won't reduce human economic activity fast enough to keep us under +6C.

[Binkie The Clown]

5. You could be right, especially considering that...

... we are not really sure how much temperature rise is already "baked in" to the system at current CO₂ levels.

[phantom power]

6. When I started following the E/E forum, the Keeling curve was around 365ppm

In that time, I've read probably thousands of stories here, and there hasn't been any new science that didn't basically amount to somebody discovering that things are getting worse, faster, than people used to think.

If humans magically halted all of our greenhouse emissions tomorrow, I'm dubious that hysteresis and positive feedbacks aren't already self-sustaining. The amount of arctic methane outgassing alone is enough to make anybody shit their pants, if they're paying attention.

Meanwhile, our emissions are still growing, much less shrinking, much less dropping to zero.

[enough]

8. Especially because, as things get worse economically and physically,

human activity will become progressively more destructive of the environment, as regulation and protections go out the window and we enter into a phase of frenzied search for ever more destructive forms of energy.

[Demeter]

7. I've got news for you--the global economy is already collapsing

and has been since 1999, by my best estimate.

Which is why the trend is showing no signs of acceleration, as previously predicted.

[Gregorian]

9. It's like asking someone to go to work with a 102 F fever: they aren't going to be productive.

I have been using body temperature in order to try and get the message across to those who think that it's not that big a problem.

Interesting article. It makes a lot of sense.

[hatrack]

10. Finally, some good news!

[Systematic Chaos]

11. Epic Win, Sirs!!

Enjoy your front row seat!

Refreshments on the hizzouse for all! Free Bibles for the kiddies!

[Boomer]

12. You know things are really bad....

....when the good news is that an economic meltdown will improve your situation.

[Systematic Chaos]

14. ORLY?

Consider my post #13, below....

[Systematic Chaos]

13. I am truly amazed that one huge consideration has gone ignored.

What about what will happen when the collapse has progressed far enough along that air traffic has greatly declined?

When that constant blanket of soot from the endless belch of burning jet fuel finally starts to thin out, and the sun no longer suffers that dimming, we already know from the brief period of grounded air traffic after 9/11 that we're in for perhaps several degrees of pretty much immediate warming when all is said and done!

Despite the amazing wealth of information certain selfless and kind people have helped to amass here, we still do not know to what extraordinary degree we are fucked over a barrel.

[Binkie The Clown]

15. Well, that's a cheery little reminder.

I had forgotten about that effect.

Maybe we will be lucky and air travel will decrease more gradually over a period of years, giving us the chance to get used to 115-degree days in the summer with no air conditioning.

[Systematic Chaos]

16. Nothin' else to report, sir.

Just proud to wear the uniform.