Lake Mead @ Record Low 1079; Restrictions Kick In @ 1075, Though Runoff Will Delay Drop

[hatrack]

Lake Mead hit a dubious milestone Wednesday as the level dropped to 1079.41 feet, setting a new record low for the lake that was created after the Hoover Dam completion in the 1930s.

Lake Mead is one of the most important sources of water for the parched Southwest. Many have claimed the way of life will rise and fall with the amount of water that drains into Lake Powell above the Grand Canyon and eventually downstream into Lake Mead. The Colorado River Basin is divided into the Upper and Lower Basin and the big concern now is for the lower basin as it is approaching levels where restrictions would kick in for Arizona, Nevada and Mexico.

The lake level for Mead should rise in the next few months as the spring melt begins and water works its way downstream. This should be short-lived, however, as the snowpack for most of the West is well below average and for most of the watershed that drains into the Lower Basin, it is below 50 percent of average.

This sets up a long hot summer of water usage and evaporation and much lower lake levels are forecast for the end of summer. The time frame most experts point to is mid-to-late summer and August is when the lake is expected to drop to an important number: 1075 feet. When Lake Mead hits this number, water restrictions are expected to be implemented for Arizona, Nevada and Mexico. The restrictions are not massive, but will require those states and Mexico to adjust to the water shortage. California will not see any restrictions until the lake drops below 1025 feet.

EDIT

http://www.news10.net/story/news/2015/04/30/lake-mead-record-low/26629687/

[yeoman6987]

1. We need to stop building in dessert places.

Plus find a way to use ocean water economically.

[dixiegrrrrl]

4. And to use permaculture to grow stuff in arid areas.

One rarely hears of that anymore, but it has successfully been used to produce plants and trees in very dry areas in the US and other countries.
Not a grand scale as of yet, but it could be used that way.

[packman]

2. Las Vegas will feel this

both in its water usage and electrical use. Shame with all that sunlight around that Vegas never thought or considered solar power for all that neon lighting. My gawd, if they cut the power usage what about the slot machines? Oh, the humanity.

[OnlinePoker]

5. Go on Google Earth and look at Las Vegas

The number of swimming pools in people's back yards is ridiculous, especially in the east end on the fringes of the city. None of them are covered so all that water is just evaporating. Any place that is classified as a desert should have a permanent ban on backyard pools/spas.

[hunter]

6. Compared to the surface areas of Lakes Powell and Mead, it doesn't seem like much...

Glen Canyon Dam is an ongoing environmental catastrophe and almost became a mega-catastrophe in the floods of 1983 when one of spillways started eroding internally, the catastrophe only averted by building wooden dams on top of the spillways.

[OnlinePoker]

3. According to this, Lake Mead continues dropping until mid-July/Aug

Since that story was released, it has dropped down to 1078.01. I'm pretty sure it's going to hit 1075 in the next couple of weeks.

http://graphs.water-data.com/lakemead/
http://lakemead.water-data.com/

[happyslug]

7. If we use the last two years as guides, this is NOT good

http://graphs.water-data.com/lakemead/graphingengine.php?graphing=1

In 2013 water level fell 5 feet from mid May till it bottomed out in July.

In 2014 water level fell 10 feet from mid May till ti bottomed out in August.

in 2012 average water level was 1121

In 2013 average water level was 1110 (drop of 9 feet)

In 2014 average was 1090 a drop of 20 feet.

Technically it has only drop 5 feet in 2015, but it is only May.

If it drops as it did in 2014, it will bottom out at about 1067 feet, thus coming close to the 20 feet drop in 2014.

I do NOT expect the date when water drop-age ends to be much later then last year (I suspect it will be in August, but just a few days after the low level mark in 2014).

On the other hand, as the lake level DROPS, the water volume and surface areas will drop. The surface area drop will lead to less lost of water to evaporation then in previous years, but the drop in Water Volume means they is must less water in the lake then it had last year (and less water means surface area will drop).

On the other hand the Local Weather report is that all of the snow pack have melted, thus you may see an even more drop in water level do to less water entering the lake. Thus we may see a delay in the bottoming out of Water Level til September.

Now California gets water from the lake til it drops below 1025 feet. In 2014 the total drop was just short of 20 feet. It does NOT appear there will be that much a drop this year, but it appears it will be at about 20 feet from peak to bottom. This means California is safe for the next two years, a 20 feet drop in 2016 will drop the number to 1045, 2017 a drop to 1035 but in 2018 a drop to 1025. 1025 is the key number, that is when California losses its access to this water.

I suspect 2014 will be the peak year for drop-age, but 2015, 2016 and 2018 will come close to that number. I can be wrong if the dropage is greater then 10 feet in any one year (and if the drought ends, I will be clearly wrong). This appears to confirm the prediction that California has only two more years of water.

[OnlinePoker]

8. One potential bright spot for NEXT year

If the El Nino that developed in the Pacific sticks around, this generally indicates a rainy pattern for the south-west which should translate into a higher snowpack for next years melt. Of course, it could just be a case of using a bandaid to stop a gushing artery, but we are into uncharted territory here. Droughts will end, but if we get a pattern of megadroughts like happened around 1000 years ago in California, there are going to be major disruptions. The difference this time is the number of people who will be effected...there's nowhere for them to go.