The awful truth about climate change no one wants to admit

[polly7]

By David Roberts
Source: Vox.com
May 17, 2015

There has always been an odd tenor to discussions among climate scientists, policy wonks, and politicians, a passive-aggressive quality, and I think it can be traced to the fact that everyone involved has to dance around the obvious truth, at risk of losing their status and influence.

The obvious truth about global warming is this: barring miracles, humanity is in for some awful shit.

Here is a plotting of dozens of climate modeling scenarios out to 2100, from the IPCC:

[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]

(Global Carbon Project)

The black line is carbon emissions to date. The red line is the status quo — a projection of where emissions will go if no new substantial policy is passed to restrain greenhouse gas emissions.

We recently passed 400 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere; the status quo will take us up to 1,000 ppm, raising global average temperature (from a pre-industrial baseline) between 3.2 and 5.4 degrees Celsius. That will mean, according to a 2012 World Bank report, “extreme heat-waves, declining global food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life-threatening sea level rise,” the effects of which will be “tilted against many of the world’s poorest regions,” stalling or reversing decades of development work. “A 4°C warmer world can, and must be, avoided,” said the World Bank president.

Full article: https://zcomm.org/znetarticle/the-awful-truth-about-climate-change-no-one-wants-to-admit/

[F4lconF16]

1. Yup.

I will do my best to change things in the meantime, but I'm pretty sure we're screwed. This is not going to be pleasant. We're heading for (are almost already) another mass extinction event. This may take a while, but just wait hundreds of years into the future when so many of these large-timescale things start kicking in. Like, for instance, the heat that is trapped by ocean currents and that will take often over thousands of years before it will all be dumped into our atmosphere again.

[hunter]

17. The mass extinction event is happening all around us NOW.

Human beings and other species are suffering climate change NOW.

Alas, it's always the powerless and voiceless who suffer first.

As long as those who write the mass media news blather get a good paycheck and a few cups of coffee in the morning they'll frame their stories according to the demands of their culture and their corporate masters.

The wealthiest among us won't acknowledge any troubles until their own homes are on fire or under water, and their own children are being held hostage or have joined the mobs of angry peasants.

[F4lconF16]

2. 130 views and 3 recs?

C'mon, people. This is the literal end of the world in any way we know it. We are kinda screwed.

And all of this stuff gets even scarier if you add in biological issues. Like, for instance, the fact that a 2 degree change--found only in the most optimistic, willfully reality avoiding projections--can destroy species. And our ecosystems are very, very carefully balanced. And there are many, many key species. The best case scenario can still have enormous problems.

Honeybees, anyone? Yellowstone wolves?

[daleanime]

10. People simple don't want to look at the truth of this....

far too many good posts in E&E drop like rocks.

[dreamnightwind]

3. K & R, will read the underlying article later

A post I made yesterday with some relevance to this:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026679891#post150

Agree or disagree with my take on Democratic politics, climate change is the most urgent problem we are facing, and that understates the urgency of it.

[GliderGuider]

4. I've been saying this for a decade now. We're screwed, blewed and tattooed.

But everybody is wriggling around like worms on a hot griddle looking for any way out. There isn't one.

RCP 8.5, and over the cliff.

[Mojorabbit]

5. +1000 nt

[Nay]

6. You and me both. Only with a crash program can we even begin to ameliorate the

effects of what we've done, but instead we are doubling down on the same shit that got us into this pickle. There seems to be no way, short of a world dictatorship interested in saving the planet, to keep us from killing ourselves.

I've pretty much let go of it emotionally; I've fought the good fight and been a very lousy consumer. I had one child, who has one child. I feel sorry for everyone who will be blindsided by this. Humans will be subject to the population crashes that all animal species experience; eat all your resources = big dieback. Sorry.

[tclambert]

8. I think it's already too late.

If we stopped burning fossil fuels right now, the CO2 already in the atmosphere will stay there for about a thousand years. And we won't reach a new temperature equilibrium for the CO2 now in the atmosphere for a few decades. Those long delay times mean we needed to start doing something decades ago.

[tclambert]

7. Well, the oil companies want to make that extra penny in profit.

How can you object to profit? Oh, sure, it puts human civilization at risk. But that's a long time from now. It won't affect next quarter's bottom line.

[dixiegrrrrl]

11. My grown sons know what's coming.

They are wickedly intelligent, and non-breeders, they saw the handwriting on the wall back in the late 1980's.
Mr. Dixie and I see it too.
We have all processed a lot of feelings about the inevitable.
Watching the lack of political will over 98% of the globe for these last couple decades can lead to only one conclusion.

[truebluegreen]

12. I am very grateful that I do not have children,

and I really, really don't understand well-educated and "climatically-aware" people who continue to have them today. I just don't get that. Willfully blind or unduly optimistic or whatever it is, I don't get it.

[F4lconF16]

18. I want children.

I may adopt, I may have my own. That is my right as a living being. I would prefer to adopt as we don't need more people, but I absolutely support the right of people to have them.

There are many reasons to have children. That you do not see or understand them does not take that away.

[truebluegreen]

27. Over-react much?

I said I didn't have any, under the circumstances was grateful for that, and didn't understand those who do, even with the understanding, and in the face of, looming climate disaster. Where did I say you, or anyone, should not have children? I must have missed it. Did I advocate for some kind of government policy, one-child, zero-children? Anyone? anyone? Bueller?

I worry myself sick about my dogs, I can't imagine how I would feel about children or grandchildren. As for you, I wish you much joy of your children, adopted or otherwise.

[dixiegrrrrl]

25. Doesn't make sense to me either.

But the truth is.....not having kids in the last 20 years and thru now is more of a decision to spare future grandkids a poor quality of life.
Sadly, any attempts at real population control are futile for now, since other people are obeying a cultural/religious breeding mandate.

[truebluegreen]

28. Yes. I fear we have "made our beds," as it were.

I am also grateful that I am on in years, and so will probably miss the worst of it. I am furious beyond expression at the violence we are wreaking on this beautiful, wondrous, wonder-full planet, but there is nothing I can do (well, maybe dream/pray an alternate reality into existence...it won't have any capitalists or conservatives either!). And keep smiling, and appreciating what is here now.

[Enthusiast]

32. The political will is the key.

We must put a stop to corporate influence in politics starting now! We need to get behind Bernie Sanders in a HUGE way.

[daleanime]

9. kick, kick, kick....

[Voice for Peace]

13. here's why those in power aren't worried enough to do anything:

the effects of which will be “tilted against many of the world’s poorest regions,”

[polly7]

15. You are right, and those poorest regions do not have a voice, so

'the world' (all those living in areas that can withstand it for a few decades longer), won't hear a whimper.

[Voice for Peace]

19. and THAT's the even WORSE awful truth nobody wants to hear.

[dixiegrrrrl]

29. I believe we will hear more than a whimper

as waves of climate refugees seek haven in other countries.
And those countries try to close the door.

[polly7]

31. They already are, and have been for years.

There are currently, estimated, thousands stranded on boats that no country will let in. I haven't heard much on the news about it - they're just starving and drowning.

Where are govt's with the means gathering to demand every country, including themselves, accept them? I haven't heard that either.

Maybe I've just missed it and there is being action taken, but I honestly don't see it.

Just one example:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1016122396

[Thespian2]

14. K & R +++++++++++

Definitely the end of human habitation of space ship Earth...ask if the oligarchs give a shit...NO...they will have had all the luxuries before they die...

[Spitfire of ATJ]

21. They WANT a mass extinction of what they consider to be "useless eaters".

[LiberalLoner]

26. +1

[n2doc]

16. The sick fact is that some people make money off of disruptions

Stasis is hard to make money from. But as things fall apart there will be those prepared to seek the desperate the things they think they need to survive- guns, food , water, even relocation. And they will drain whatever money and resources are left from those who are in the worst shape.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

20. “tilted against many of the world’s poorest regions,”

Which is WHY nothing will be done.

[mackdaddy]

22. And the IPCC models do not include all sources of global warming, only man made CO2.

As I understand it, the IPCC models do not include:

Methane releases from the arctic circle, the Methane Hydrate/Clathrates under the ocean and on land.

Methane/ CO2 releases from Permafrost melt and the activation of bacteria breaking down formerly frozen organic material.

Melting Polar Ice which will allow for vast new areas of the ocean to absorb heat from the sun rather than reflecting it.

And of course there is strong evidence that all of these things are happening NOW. For example the massive Siberian fires.

Finally the carbon capture "technology" at least on a world wide scale is basically science fiction. We might be better off planning on getting warp space drive working in this time frame.

[Dems to Win]

23. We've passed the tipping point. That's the elephant in the room no one speaks about.

We've triggered the methane clathrate explosion in the arctic, which will accelerate the process and serve as a positive feedback loop. We've put so much heat into the ocean that the crumbling of the Antarctic ice shelves is unstoppable, leading to the on land glaciers flowing into the sea and a massive sea level increase. I could go on. All of the predicted effects are occurring, much faster than predicted.

And the US is following a feel-good 'all of the above' energy policy. More wind turbines AND more drilling for oil in the arctic, too! And this is from President Obama, by far the best choice in the 2008 general election -- imagine where we'd be if he'd lost.

None of the measures proposed and talked about endlessly by the establishment would even dent the problem. And we can't even get the half-measures enacted, for the most part.

People will only take the problem seriously when it is too serious to be ignored. When Florida cities are underwater and there is a lack of food on the supermarket shelves. By then, it will be far too late.

The scientists working in this field know this reality. This system that they can't get to change, to stop the emissions, also is their source of funds. The government that gives subsidies to fossil fuel producers also funds their research. They are trying their best, and have been for a long time, to convince lawmakers to change, but it is pretty hopeless.

For most of them, I guess it's now an interesting intellectual puzzle, to forecast our doom.

James Hansen said that he expects civilization to collapse in about 30 years. (that was at least 10 years ago). Once industrial civilization ends, with an accompanying decline in population, our emission outputs will drop to pre-industrial levels. That seems like the only way humanity will 'handle' this problem. It's just a question of when, and how much the total damage will be to this beautiful blue planet.

[Binkie The Clown]

24. Humanity is already on the slippery slope toward extinction.

If the point of no return has not yet been reached, it will be reached soon because those in power show no signs of any kind of awareness of just how bad off we are.

[hatrack]

30. One of my favorite jokes on this topic - "Political Leadership"

Last edited Mon May 18, 2015, 01:54 PM - Edit history (1)

Lip service is all well and good. It's certainly soothing, and can be made simultaneously green with Gaian promise and glittering with techno-dazzle. God knows there's been plenty over the past quarter-century.

However, the first step to really talking about what we're facing is the admission by our "leaders" that it's totally out of their hands, and that from here on out, things are just going to happen automatically with or without additional human intervention.

We could, if we really, seriously, collectively tried, and got medieval on the fossil fuel, automotive and building sectors, at least make things less awful than they'll be otherwise. It certainly wouldn't stop it, but it might buy some time. That, of course, will never happen. Don't spook the horses, don't rattle the bond market, and for God's sake don't disrupt the hologram - to paraphrase Hamlet, as regards our "leaders", "thus does lack of conscience make cowards of them all."

Anybody seen any "leaders" of late who'd be willing to make that particular admission, unless by some strange chance they were choking on wind-blown sand or standing in knee-deep seawater at the time?

Yeah, I didn't think so either.