Researchers at five universities … find a dramatic increase in major storm occurrence

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http://news.rutgers.edu/research-news/flood-risk-rise-new-york-city-and-new-jersey-coast-study-finds/20150924

[font face=Serif][font size=5]Researchers at five universities including Rutgers compare storm models from prehistoric to modern eras and find a dramatic increase in major storm occurrence[/font]

Monday, September 28, 2015
By Dory Devlin

[font size=3]Flood risk for New York City and the New Jersey coast has increased significantly during the last 1,000 years due to hurricanes and accompanying storm surges, according to a study by Penn State University, Rutgers University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Princeton University and Tufts University.

For the first time, climate researchers compared both sea-level rise rates and storm surge heights in prehistoric and modern eras and found that the combined increases of each have raised the likelihood of a devastating 500-year flood occurring as often as every 25 years.

“A storm that occurred once in seven generations is now occurring twice in a generation,” said Benjamin Horton, a Rutgers marine and coastal sciences professor. Horton also is the principal investigator on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Science Foundation grants funding the research.

The study, “Increased Threat of Tropical Cyclones and Coastal Flooding During the Anthropogenic Era,” was published today in PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences). This study is unique because researchers combined sea-level records, hurricane and storm surge models to look at flooding in the New York City region in the two time periods – prehistoric (pre-anthropogenic, A.D. 850 to 1800) and modern (anthropogenic, 1970 – 2005).

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[/font]Photo: PNAS
Flood heights increased 1.2 meters from the prehistoric era to the modern era, mainly due to rising sea level, researchers found.

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