MIT - Even If Every Nation Executes On Climate Pledges, 3.5C By 2100 (i.e. 6th ELE)

[hatrack]

If every nation that has so far pledged to cut down on its carbon emissions made good on its promises, the global average temperature would still rise 3.5˚ Celsius by the end of the century. According to a new study from MIT Sloan and Climate Interactive, even with the hard-won commitments from nations around the world, we’re still on track for “catastrophic” levels of planetary heating. If, that is, the governmental targets aren’t stepped up, or paired with other aggressive efforts.

In advance of the upcoming climate talks in Paris this year, which many consider the world’s best shot at cementing an agreement to limit global warming, nations have begun submitting what are known in UN-speak as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).

These are basically declarations of intent for how a given country aims to reduce or mitigate its carbon emissions—Norway, for instance, is pledging to reduce its carbon emissions by 40 percent by 2030. The US is aiming for a 28 percent CO2 reduction by 2025. China, meanwhile, again made waves when it announced it would match the US’s fuel efficiency standards and launch a new cap-and-trade system for reducing pollution as part of its plan.

It should speak to the scope of the climate problem that even with all those reduction commitments on the books, we’re headed for what scientists say are civilization-threatening levels of warming. To reach that conclusion, MIT rounded up all such pledges that are on the books, and analyzed the total impact they’d have on temperature rise.

EDIT

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/if-every-nation-upholds-their-promise-to-fight-climate-change-were-still-fried

[pscot]

1. Too little; too late; too bad; so sad

[daleanime]

2. kick, kick, kick....

[Javaman]

3. we. are. fucked.

we had a good run, did some cool things, created some cool tech, made some truly useless shit, but like all "good" things, they must come to an end.

closing time. You can stay as long as you like, but it can't be here.

make sure you turn off the lights when you leave.

and the next dark age begins. if, we as humans, come out on the other side, I wonder if those people will have enough brains not to fuck things up again?

in a couple of thousand years, I wonder if there will be enough history left for people to study, let along remember.

[Peace Patriot]

6. Oh, yeah, you could wallow in helplessness and depression...or...

...you could take a break, get a massage, plant a tomato plant, go for a run and generally renew your life energy, and do some "pass it forward" acts of kindness, volunteer for a good cause, organize a good cause, help educate people, get active locally or nationally to implement environmental solutions and/or actively support political candidates who will help, and so forth.

Publishing depressing statements like "We are fucked" doesn't help. Or maybe it does. You are expressing the point of view that the Oiligarchs have worked so diligently to instill in you and others, that you can do nothing to stop their greed-driven planet destruction. They WANT a depressed, inactive population that has given up. By expressing this, you give us all a glimpse at the problem. Too many people have given up. Too many people are not fighting back.

I'd say, try to inspire people, rather than drag them down into your own black hole. We all have our dark moments. Don't let them overwhelm you, and if you need to say how bad you feel, try to do it creatively, so that it helps others who are in similar states to get out of such states and start contributing positive energy and ideas to the whole.

[Javaman]

7. yes, that's me, Mr. kill joy.

hoping we are going to be just fine when it's been proven that a 3 degree rise is basically a civilization ender.

believe me, I have a 160 square foot garden and each and every year I plant, the last frost is earlier and the heat of the summer (texas) comes sooner. Thus moving my planting season. I no longer plant in the summer because nothing lives and my tanks run dry.

I'm currently training for a 10K and have a latte every sunday morning with my babe.

and even with all this "positive" vibes you claim I refuse to display, we. are. still. fucked.

and by giving up, do you mean that if we stopped everything right now, all polluting, as MIT stated, that things will just magically get better if we all, "just do our part"?

LOLOLOLOL

I have solar panels, I have water tanks (not barrels, but tanks) capturing rain water, I keep bees, I have basically a closed system of renewal in my backyard from garden to compost and back again.

I am doing every damn thing I can do. I have a hybrid, I ride my bike to work when the weather isn't baking my skin off, and I take public transportation.

so yeah, that's me, mr. kill joy.

so please preach your gospel of "if we all just work together and have happy thoughts" and try to convince someone else with it, because I know of what I speak and I walk the walk.

And it's certainly clear that I'm still trying in the face of overwhelming odds. Because, we humans are stupid like that. (among our other very stupid things that we do, especially to the environment)

[Peace Patriot]

16. I apologize if I was being patronizing. And LOOK WHAT YOU'VE TOLD US!

So I take some credit for prompting you to reveal these WONDERFUL things that you are doing. And they really REALLY are wonderful. Now people have something to hold onto, something to do, ideas to implement in their own lives and to spread to others.

That's all that I meant. And now you've done it. Thank you!

I often come across depressed youngsters, who say things like "we are fucked," and don't know what to do, who feel powerless, and who get very negative about life. I try to mitigate this not by lying to them, but trying to get them to understand how to turn their own energy and the energy of their peers and their community toward solving critical problems. They don't have much life experience and they certainly haven't done the things YOU'VE done to do your part in solving critical world problems. It's sobering that someone with your ingenuity and vision feels so bad. It makes ME feel bad. And I don't want it to spread, because I strongly feel that if all of us start doing the things that YOU are doing, our fate as the human race and the fate of our lovely planet earth will improve.

It will take lots of individual and communal actions, but the things you are doing CAN save the world. They won't spread with negativity, though. There has to be a positive vision--or at least a positive prompt to people to get on it, now.

Anyway, thanks again for spelling it all out--all of your thoughtful and creative efforts. I greatly appreciate it, and I hope others do as well!

[Javaman]

18. If that helps you sleep at night...

great.

but +3 degrees is a civilization ender.

I'm not hopeful at all, just a realist.

I think a heavy dose of reality even to the "youngsters" will help them prepare for what is going to be in their futures.

because their future will be a future of wars over water, wars over farmable land, and trying to live the best way they can with air, land and oceans horribly polluted.

read up on what is happening to our seas. The krill is dying off. No krill no fish. we are bleaching the coral reefs throughout the world via acidification. and nothing is being done to stop it. and it's at a point where even if we stopped today, the ocean is basically fucked for the next 1000 years. that means no more fish.

so pick and choose what you want from my post. I am not the least bit hopeful.

we. are. fucked.

[SammyWinstonJack]

4. It didn't have too be this way. Greed caused this.

[StevieM]

10. You raise an interesting question: How much of the problem is greed..and how much is stupidity?

I believe that the problem could have been more successfully addressed if their had been leadership on the issue from the United States. As the leading military and economic power in the world we could have moved the international community in the right direction, and that could have dramatically reduced the carbon footprint before it was too late. Obviously, we didn't choose to do that.

So that raised the question: why not? I would suggest that their are plenty of times that greedy people are disbelieved and dismissed. But that hasn't happened here. Again...why not?

Many people don't believe in global warming. They think it is a hoax by liberals. They either think it is a scheme for people like Al Gore to make money, or it is "another example" of liberal hysteria. If an issue is too tied to the word liberal it is automatically distrusted by some.

There are many Americans who cannot see past their hatred of the word liberal and the people who they associate with that word. Moreover, every policy they pursue must somehow achieve the word conservative. Climate change wound up on the wrong side of that paradigm. Therefore, some people's positions are locked in. They cannot be changed without fundamentally altering their world view.

In a sense that is not just about stupidity...it is also about hatred. And that's what many AGW deniers are--stupid and hateful.

[OKIsItJustMe]

11. Leadership...

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/primary-resources/carter-energy/

[font face=Serif][font size=5]Primary Resources: Proposed Energy Policy[/font]

[font size=4]Jimmy Carter delivered this televised speech on April 18, 1977.[/font]

[font size=3]Tonight I want to have an unpleasant talk with you about a problem unprecedented in our history. With the exception of preventing war, this is the greatest challenge our country will face during our lifetimes. The energy crisis has not yet overwhelmed us, but it will if we do not act quickly.

It is a problem we will not solve in the next few years, and it is likely to get progressively worse through the rest of this century.

We must not be selfish or timid if we hope to have a decent world for our children and grandchildren.

...

Our decision about energy will test the character of the American people and the ability of the President and the Congress to govern. This difficult effort will be the "moral equivalent of war" -- except that we will be uniting our efforts to build and not destroy.

...[/font][/font]

http://millercenter.org/president/speeches/speech-3398

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=32500

[font face=Serif]
[font size=5]Solar Energy Remarks Announcing Administration Proposals.[/font]
[font size=4]June 20, 1979[/font]

[font size=3]In 1891, during the Presidency of William Henry Harrison [Benjamin Harrison], electric lights were first installed in the White House, the residence of the leaders of our country. At that time, commercial electricity was not economically feasible, but President Harrison wanted to affirm his confidence in the technological capability of our country.

...

There is no longer any question that solar energy is both feasible and also cost-effective. In those homes now using electricity, a typical solar hot water heating system, such as the one behind me, can pay for itself in 7 to 10 years. As energy costs increase, which is an almost inevitable prospect, that period for paying for this investment will be substantially reduced. Solar energy will not pollute our air or water. We will not run short of it. No one can ever embargo the Sun or interrupt its delivery to us. But we must work together to turn our vision and our dream into a solar reality.

...

This solar strategy will not be easy to accomplish. It will be a tremendous, exciting challenge to the American people, a challenge as important as exploring our first frontiers or building the greatest industrial society on Earth. By the end of this century, I want our Nation to derive 20 percent of all the energy we use from the Sun—direct solar energy in radiation and also renewable forms of energy derived more indirectly from the Sun. This is a bold proposal, and it's an ambitious goal. But it is attainable if we have the will to achieve it.

...

In the year 2000, the solar water heater behind me, which is being dedicated today, will still be here supplying cheap, efficient energy. A generation from now, this solar heater can either be a curiosity, a museum piece, an example of a road not taken, or it can be just a small part of one of the greatest and most exciting adventures ever undertaken by the American people: harnessing the power of the Sun to enrich our lives as we move away from our crippling dependence on foreign oil.

...[/font][/font]

[font size=5]This nation has been portrayed for too long of time to the people as being energy poor. When it is energy rich. The coal that the president mentioned, yes, we have it. And yet, 1/8 of our total core resources is not being utilized at all, right now. The mines are close down, there are 22,000 miners out of work. Most of this is due to regulations. Which either interfere with the mining of it or prevent the burning of it. With our modern technology, yes we can burn our coal within the limits of the clean air act. I think as technology improves we will be able to do even better with that.

Ronald Wilson Reagan[/font]

[The2ndWheel]

17. What kind of greed?

The kind that figured out how to fix broken legs? The kind that figured out how to control fire? The kind that figured out germ theory? The kind that came up with ways to grow more food so that more people would survive? The kind that started to domesticate certain animals? The kind that figured out how to farm? The kind that builds roads everywhere? Or is it just the oil guys?

It's all greed. We don't want solar or wind energy to use less energy. We want to be able to use more with no consequences. Alright, so that would be impossible, but we want it. Civilization, a resource concentration mechanism, is greed. As short term as hunting and gathering, just on a bigger scale.

[CanonRay]

5. I do believe that the earth will heal itself from us

but I don't know if any of our progeny will be here to enjoy the repairs.

[Javaman]

8. as I say to a friend of mine...

the earth will be just fine, we humans...not so much.

[Maven]

9. or as george carlin said, "the planet isn't going anywhere...WE are!"

[OKIsItJustMe]

12. This is a naive attitude, unless you consider this rock beneath our feet "Earth."

If we damage the ecosystem badly enough to kill ourselves off, what, exactly, will survive?

We seriously consider establishing colonies on the Moon and Mars. If things get too bad here, humans will use similar technologies to survive on Earth.

How bad will things get do you suppose? (Worse than Mars? Worse than the Moon?) What will survive if we do not?

[Javaman]

13. Try and kill off grass.

you can't.

even in the most polluted harsh environment.

we will be gone, the earth will be fine.

[OKIsItJustMe]

14. Don't count on it

http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/biodiversity/elements_of_biodiversity/extinction_crisis/

[font face=Serif][font size=5]THE EXTINCTION CRISIS[/font]

[font size=3]It’s frightening but true: Our planet is now in the midst of its sixth mass extinction of plants and animals — the sixth wave of extinctions in the past half-billion years. We’re currently experiencing the worst spate of species die-offs since the loss of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. Although extinction is a natural phenomenon, it occurs at a natural “background” rate of about one to five species per year. Scientists estimate we’re now losing species at 1,000 to 10,000 times the background rate, with literally dozens going extinct every day (1). It could be a scary future indeed, with as many as 30 to 50 percent of all species possibly heading toward extinction by mid-century (2).

Unlike past mass extinctions, caused by events like asteroid strikes, volcanic eruptions, and natural climate shifts, the current crisis is almost entirely caused by us — humans. In fact, 99 percent of currently threatened species are at risk from human activities, primarily those driving habitat loss, introduction of exotic species, and global warming (3). Because the rate of change in our biosphere is increasing, and because every species’ extinction potentially leads to the extinction of others bound to that species in a complex ecological web, numbers of extinctions are likely to snowball in the coming decades as ecosystems unravel.

...

[font face=Serif][font size=4]PLANTS[/font]
Through photosynthesis, plants provide the oxygen we breathe and the food we eat and are thus the foundation of most life on Earth. They’re also the source of a majority of medicines in use today. Of the more than 300,000 known species of plants, the IUCN has evaluated only 12,914 species, finding that about 68 percent of evaluated plant species are threatened with extinction.

Unlike animals, plants can’t readily move as their habitat is destroyed, making them particularly vulnerable to extinction. Indeed, one study found that habitat destruction leads to an “extinction debt,” whereby plants that appear dominant will disappear over time because they aren’t able to disperse to new habitat patches [11]. Global warming is likely to substantially exacerbate this problem. Already, scientists say, warming temperatures are causing quick and dramatic changes in the range and distribution of plants around the world. With plants making up the backbone of ecosystems and the base of the food chain, that’s very bad news for all species, which depend on plants for food, shelter, and survival.

...[/font][/font]

If the grass survives, we will eat it.

[Javaman]

15. this is where we will have to agree to disagree. cheers. nt