Oil war: Is Saudi Arabia walking into its own trap?

[bemildred]

While Saudi Arabia is busy pursuing a covert alliance with Israel, the “oil war” it’s started with other producers, including the US, is already impacting the kingdom and the rest of the world. What Riyadh’s doing on the oil front will create more repercussions as the “war” drags on into next year — most of them economically bad for Saudi Arabia.

The Saudis are certainly not happy with the US due to the Iran-nuke deal. This is adding to their eagerness to ensure that US shale oil companies go bankrupt. However, Saudi policy seems to be falling short of its “grand” objectives.

The scenario that appears to be developing goes something like this: Production of shale oil is on the rise in the US, and with the US maintaining current levels of production, the Americans would be in a position to further cut its dependence on Saudi oil imports and other OPEC countries. Hence, the US will definitely be able to follow a more relaxed financial policy, and much more relaxed foreign policy, especially with regards to the Middle East.

As a matter of fact, according to the data provided by the US Energy Information Department (EIA), US oil imports from OPEC have already fallen to a 28 year low. The US is pumping more oil and relying less on OPEC imports than at any time since 1987.

http://atimes.com/2015/09/oil-war-is-saudi-arabia-walking-into-its-own-trap/

[DetlefK]

1. If Saudi-Arabia destabilizes, they will go the route of Syria.

Violence and bribery are what keeps the arabic people accepting to the dictatorship of their governments. The syrian economy collapsed, the syrian people wanted political change, Assad said No, and there was war.

Saudi-Arabia has the problem that not only will a destabilization lead to political opposition: This opposition will be ready to join ISIS, because the ideology of ISIS is very close to the Wahabism of Saudi-Arabia and was in fact developed by saudi clerics.

Saudi-Arabia is currently fortifying its border with Iraq to keep out ISIS. But once Saudi-Arabia can no longer suppress its population with violence and oil-money bribes, there's a decent chance ISIS will just leap across this fence.

[GreatGazoo]

2. Saudi Arabia backs ISIS. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey support ISIS

So of course ISIS ideology is "very close to Wahabi" (!)

As for the start of conflict in Syria, also Saudi backed:

Syrians know there were abuses against demonstrators in early 2011; they also know that the President dismissed the Governor of Dara for this. They know that the armed insurrection was not a consequence of the protests but rather a sectarian insurrection that took cover under those rallies. Saudi official Anwar el-Eshki admitted to the BBC that his country had provided weapons to Islamists in Dara, and their rooftop sniping closely resembled the Muslim Brotherhood’s failed insurrection in Hama, back in 1982. Hafez al Assad crushed that revolt in a few weeks. Of the incident US intelligence said total casualties were probably ‘about 2,000’ including ‘300 to 400’ members of the Muslim Brotherhood’s elite militia. The Brotherhood and many western sources have since inflated those numbers, calling it a ‘massacre’. Armed Islamists posing as civilian victims have a long history in Syria.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/why-syrians-support-bashar-al-assad/5405208

[DetlefK]

3. I don't get why the US gets blamed for their proxy-wars.

Saudi-Arabia and Turkey directly or indirectly supported ISIS because ISIS wants to overthrow Assad, who is an ally of Iran. Without the proxy-war over Syria, ISIS would be hanging in the ropes by now.

And to top this off, Turkey is choosing this mayhem as the right time to settle their feud with the guys who fight ISIS, the Kurds.

Sure, the US-invasion of Iraq made the founding of ISIS possible, but their doctrine is saudi and and they became powerful because the Middle-East nations played political games.

[bemildred]

4. Libya, not Syria. nt

[DetlefK]

5. Why?

[unhappycamper]

6. Why does a dog lick its balls?

Because it can.

The US will continue fracking until our water supply is thoroughly contaminated or the earthquakes become bothersome.

[DetlefK]

7. I have seriously no idea what's going on right now.

I asked bemildred why she(?) thinks Saudi-Arabia would end up like Libya (tribal splintering), rather than like Syria (rebels vs establishment).

The discussion has moved away from oil...

[unhappycamper]

8. I beg to disagree

The invasion of Iraq was originally called Operation Iraqi Liberation. Our thirst for oil has us poking our faces where they do not belong.

What's going to happen in the Middle East? I have no clue. Currently Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Libya and Egypt are starting to go up in flames - surrounding countries like Jordan are completely overwhelmed by refugees. The EU is completely overwhelmed by refugees.

Yemen (where AFRICOM had its first base in Africa) is also in flames as is Somalia.

Mission Accomplished.

--

I have not yet finished my first cuppa joe so I am not responsible for the above post (yet).

[bemildred]

9. Oil. Lots of oil. Duh. It's Saudi Arabia. Syria is peanuts comparatively.

Probably a few outside players will jump in too if the Saudis collapse or get into it with each other.

And IS, They want to be the custodian of the two holy places too.

[bemildred]

10. And also, the House of Saud essentially is the Saudi government.

Without it there will be no government. There is no institutional order to fall back on.