Responding to the Challenge of Russia in Syria

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No one should have been surprised that Russia committed their military to the task of saving their ally in Syria from defeat. And no one should now be surprised if Saudi Arabia steps up its support for the Syrian opposition; or if the opposition attacks Russian forces in Syria.

From the very beginning, the tragedy of Syria has been a multi-layered drama. There was the internal conflict with its undercurrents of class and sect tensions. There was also a regional aspect with proxies for Iran and the Arab Gulf States squared off against each other. And then there was the Russia/NATO dimension with Moscow determined not to lose another strategic partner at the hands of the West.

All of this should have been evident from the very start of the conflict, and yet the combatants and their supporters have consistently failed to factor this complexity into their calculations thereby insuring that the war in Syria would grow into the horror it has become.

To recap: drought and failed economic policies by a corrupt state system wreaked havoc on millions of Syrians driving them from their land in search of the means of survival. Their demands for economic justice and greater rights were brutally put down by the government. Repression, mass imprisonment, torture, and the wanton killing of civilians didn't silence the demonstrators; instead it led many to adopt violent means, as well.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/responding-to-the-challen_b_8271650.html

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1. Shooting at falling objects — Chan Akya

Coming out of an extremely busy summer due to market volatility – more on that later – I have been generally tracking world events on these pages; with my fellow contributors and columnists doing a great job summarizing, analyzing and commenting on key events ranging from volatility in Emerging Markets, the European refugee crisis and of course, the whole (new) mess in Syria. Generally the coverage has been tremendous, leaving me with pretty much nothing to add.

Going back to my “odd man rule” which I first explained in my article about Iran a few moons ago (see “Iran nuke deal is good news” dated April 14, 2015) though, I felt that the recent articles about Russia’s military intervention in Syria appeared overly charitable to the country and fairly one-sided in their praise for President Putin’s apparently “decisive” and “strategic” thinking. The general narrative has been:

Syria is a mess (well, no contest there)
Current actions by the US, GCC and EU are basically futile (no contest)
ISIS is evil (again, no contest)
By entering the battle against ISIS directly, Russia is providing leadership (hmmm…)
Russian intervention will prove a decisive turning point (hmmm…)
Iran will benefit from Russia’s intervention the most (hmmm…)

Reading from the “Hmmm” sheet

http://atimes.com/2015/10/shooting-at-falling-objects-chan-akya/

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2. The Mystery of ISIS' Toyota Army Solved

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Mystery Solved

Just last year it was reported that the US State Department had been sending in fleets of specifically Toyota-brand trucks into Syria to whom they claimed was the "Free Syrian Army."

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Hiluxes were on the Free Syrian Army's wish list. Oubai Shahbander, a Washington-based advisor to the Syrian National Coalition, is a fan of the truck.

"Specific equipment like the Toyota Hiluxes are what we refer to as force enablers for the moderate opposition forces on the ground," he adds. Shahbander says the US-supplied pickups will be delivering troops and supplies into battle. Some of the fleet will even become battlefield weapons..

The British government has also admittedly supplied a number of vehicles to terrorists fighting inside of Syria. The British Independent's 2013 article titled, "Revealed: What the West has given Syria's rebels," reported that:

http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=52557

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16. The State Dept "nonlethal aid" and UK truck deliveries account for a handful. KS/GCC provide IS

with most of its funding and equipment.

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18. I am sure that avenue works quite well for them too.

Or they could just have bought them.

[leveymg]

20. But, someone had to forward payment and deliver them.

Turkey is the obvious middleman for that. As you are aware, the Joint Chiefs have stated the primary source of ISIS finance remains "donations, lots of donations" from abroad. http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026192755

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21. The things are not mutually exclusive.

If you ask me, I think the Sauds have dumped more money in, Obama has been rightly cautious, but it's all propaganda anyhow, attempts to "cast doubt" and assign blame. If you want to talk about our follies, the Humvees work great. We have been too busy grabbing at straws to pay much attention to who we were dealing with. That's the CIA for you. Never met an intervention they didn't like. It's what they do.

"To a little boy with a hammer, everything looks like a nail."

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3. Russia’s New Mega-Missile Stuns the Globe

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The media coverage was at least as important as the destruction of the alleged rebel facilities, U.S. defense officials told The Daily Beast on Wednesday. “This is Russia demonstrating on a global stage that it has a lot of reach,” one official explained.

Eric Wertheim, an independent U.S. naval analyst and author of the definitive Combat Fleets of the World, a reference guide to warships and their weapons, agrees, saying of the missile volley: “I think it was a demonstration to the world.”

Wertheim and other foreign analysts were familiar with an earlier version of the SS-N-30 called the SS-N-27, but the latter is an anti-ship missile and the analysts assumed it could only fly 150 miles or so—a fraction of the roughly thousand miles the rockets traveled during the recent raid.

The SS-N-30 obviously boasts a much greater range than its predecessors and can also strike targets on dry land. That makes it broadly similar to the American Tomahawk missile, which the U.S. military traditionally fires in large numbers from ships and submarines in order to wipe out enemy air defenses before conducting aerial bombing campaigns. The U.S. Navy fired Tomahawks to hit the most heavily defended ISIS targets at the beginning of the American-led air war over Syria in September 2014.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/09/russia-s-new-mega-missile-stuns-the-globe.html

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23. Tiny Warships, Big Firepower

On Oct. 7, four warships of the Russian navy’s Caspian Sea flotilla fired 26 SS-N-30A land-attack cruise missiles at rebel forces in western Syria, a thousand miles away.

The raid shocked foreign observers — not the least because the ships involved were so … tiny. “One of the biggest surprises for Russia-watchers was the small size of the ships that launched the missiles — 1,000-ton ships,” said Eric Wertheim, author of Combat Fleets of the World. “That’s really small.”

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the attacking ships were Dagestan, Grad Sviyazhsk, Veliky Ustyug and Uglich. The latter three are Buyan-class missile boats, 203 feet long and displacing 950 tons of water. Dagestan is a 335-foot, 1,900-ton Gepard-class frigate. All four ships entered service in just the last few years.

For perspective, bear in mind that the smallest U.S. Navy surface warship to possess an equivalent weapon, the Tomahawk cruise missile, is an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer that’s 500 feet long and displaces 9,000 tons. And America’s Littoral Combat Ship frigates, which displace 3,000 tons, carry only small, short-range missiles.

http://warisboring.com/articles/tiny-warships-big-firepower/

[ColesCountyDem]

4. Great posts!

Thank you for sharing them.

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6. I knew you guys would like them.

[ColesCountyDem]

7. The situation is so hideously complex.

Informed and unbiased analysis of the conflict is as rare as it is invaluable.

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9. Indeed.

Like trying to run on a pool of buttered ball bearings.

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5. The Loyalist Offensive Begins in Syria, with Russian help

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The Syrian government’s long-expected offensive against the country’s rebel forces has begun. On Oct. 7, loyalist troops advanced against rebel-held positions in northern Hama with the support of numerous Russian airstrikes as well as both rocket and tube artillery fire. Initial reports from the battlefield suggest that the rebels, primarily the Free Syrian Army, are putting up an effective defense in spite of heavy shelling. The rebels’ liberal use of improvised explosive devices and anti-tank guided missiles has taken a heavy toll on loyalist armor; several reports say rebels destroyed 17 armored fighting vehicles on the first day of the fight, and combat footage has confirmed the destruction of at least nine vehicles.

Despite the initial setback, the loyalists’ Russian-backed offensive has only just begun. Already there have been heavy airstrikes in the Al-Ghab plain, signaling the spread of the offensive to other areas of Hama. Loyalists are also preparing to assault the northern Homs pocket and to push toward the Kweiris air base, where several allied groups are still engaged in fighting with Islamic State forces.

The rebels are at a disadvantage in the fight because they lack air defense weaponry. They also have few means with which to counter Russian or loyalist rocket and artillery fire. However, the rebels can continue to heavily rely on their anti-tank guided missiles and defensive acumen to slow down the loyalist forces in a battle of attrition. The rebels are also expecting further shipments of weapons and equipment from their foreign patrons, especially Turkey and the Gulf Arab states, and they may receive man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) that would prove useful against low-flying aircraft and helicopters.

One of the most interesting aspects of the conflict is Russia’s weaponry. From Oct. 5-6, four vessels of the Russian Caspian Flotilla fired 26 land attack cruise missiles — 3M-14 Kalibr missiles, codenamed “Sizzler” by NATO, to be exact. It was Russia’s first use of land attack cruise missiles fired from the sea in an active operational setting. Since Russian aircraft could have just as easily struck many of the targeted areas with less expense, the use of the land attack missiles was likely meant, at least in part, to be a symbolic demonstration of force to showcase Russia’s military capabilities.

http://fabiusmaximus.com/2015/10/10/stratfor-russia-syrian-offensive-90066/

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8. . nt

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10. U.S. and Russia to resume Syria air safety talks

Russian leaders have responded to a proposed draft of safety guidelines for military aircraft flying missions in the increasingly crowded skies over Syria, the Pentagon said Friday.

Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook said Friday that a second round of talks between the two countries about the plan could take place as soon as this weekend. The U.S. and Russia are trying to hash out flight procedures to ensure that there are no collisions or other incidents as both countries conduct bombing operations in Syria.

Cook told reporters traveling back from Europe with Defense Secretary Ash Carter that the Russians sent a formal reply and department officials are currently reviewing it, but he provided no details.

The response comes on the heels of a series of Russian aircraft incidents that raised concerns about the potential for mishaps, as the U.S.-led coalition continues to launch daily airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Syria.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/10/10/us-and-russia-resume-syria-air-safety-talks/73723932/

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13. Syria airstrikes: Russian military reports 64 raids on Isis in 24 hours

Russian airstrikes in Syria have targeted command and communications centres, weapons depots and training centres used by militants and terrorists, Russian news agencies have reported.

Maj-Gen Igor Konashenkov, a military spokesman, said Russia’s air force had made 64 deployments against 55 Islamic State targets in Syria in the past 24 hours. These took place in the provinces of Raqqa, Hama, Damascus and Aleppo.

Russia started bombing in Syria in late September, saying it was targeting Isis militants, a campaign that has drawn Moscow deeper into Syria’s four-year conflict. But rebels on the ground and western states said Moscow’s air campaign, combined with ground attacks by pro-Assad forces, have mainly targeted rebel groups not associated with Isis, including US-trained fighters.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed on Saturday that Russian strikes hit northern areas of Latakia province, the coastal heartland of Assad’s Alawite minority sect, as well as northern areas of Hama province further east. There was no immediate information on casualties.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/10/syria-airstrikes-russia-reports-64-missions-isis-24-hours

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15. United States, allies conduct 25 air strikes in Syria and Iraq: US military

We seem to be upping our effort against ISIL too. Good.

A coalition led by the United States targeted ISIS in Syria with five air strikes on Friday, and also hit the militant group with 20 bombardments in Iraq, according to a statement released on Saturday.

The Combined Joint Task Force said the Syria strikes hit tactical units near Al Hasakah, Ar Raqqah, Manbij, and Mar'a and also destroyed tactical vehicles and a building belonging to ISIS in those areas. Near Palmyra, a strike destroyed and damaged ISIS front-end loaders, tractor-like equipment which are used in construction, it said.

http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-united-states-allies-conduct-25-air-strikes-in-syria-and-iraq-us-military-2133406

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22. Strikes Continues Against IS Terrorists in Syria

The U.S.-led coalition targeted Islamic State in Syria with five air strikes on Friday, and also hit the militant group with 20 bombardments in Iraq, according to a statement released on Saturday.

The Combined Joint Task Force said the Syria strikes hit tactical units near al-Hasakah, Ar Raqqah, Manbij, and Mar'a and also destroyed tactical vehicles and a building belonging to Islamic State in those areas. Near Palmyra, a strike destroyed and damaged Islamic State front-end loaders, tractor-like equipment which are used in construction, it said.

Four attacks concentrated near Ramadi in Iraq struck two Islamic State tactical units, and also destroyed a preparation area, a front-end loader, a heavy machine gun and six fighting positions. They also "denied ISIL access to terrain," the statement said, using a common acronym for Islamic State. The area near Sultan Abdallah also had heavy bombardment, with three strikes destroying a vehicle-bomb factory and storage facility.

Coalition nations conducting strikes in Iraq include the United States, Australia, Canada, France, Jordan, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Coalition nations conducting strikes in Syria include the United States, Australia, Bahrain, Canada, France, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

http://www.voanews.com/content/strikes-continue-against-is-terrorists-in-syria-iraq/3000522.html

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25. Iraq says it was not warned about Russian missiles crossing its airspace

May or may not be butt-covering.

BAGHDAD — Iraq’s Defense Ministry said Friday it was not informed when Russia launched more than two dozen cruise missiles across its airspace this week, and it described the lack of coordination in the region’s increasingly cluttered skies as “dangerous.”

U.S. officials have also said they were given no notification before Russia fired the volley of 26 cruise missiles, which traveled nearly 1,000 miles across Iran and Iraq and into Syria from warships in the Caspian Sea — despite the ongoing presence of U.S.-led coalition jets in the airspace.

The revelations underline a hazardous lack of coordination of air assets in the skies above Iraq and Syria — one that threatens to complicate the coalition’s campaign against Islamic State militants in the region. The Pentagon said this week that coalition planes have had to be rerouted to avoid collisions with Russian jets.

“Iraq didn’t have any idea about those missiles,” said Brig. Gen. Tahseen Ibrahim, a spokesman for the Iraqi Defense Ministry. “We have coalition forces’ air power in the air, our planes in the air, transportation. This is dangerous.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iraq-says-it-was-not-warned-about-russian-missiles-crossing-its-airspace/2015/10/09/bec6bb5c-6e8f-11e5-91eb-27ad15c2b723_story.html

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11. Russia transfers Ukraine war doctrine to Syria

If its role in fomenting conflict in eastern Ukraine is a guide, Russia has some new tricks in store for Syrian rebels and their allies.

Russia's recent involvement in Syria's civil war is similar in some ways to its intervention in eastern Ukraine, where it exploited ethnic conflict, provided weapons, employed volunteers and irregular forces and tried to deceive the West about its intentions.

That approach is what Russia's chief of the general staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, calls "new generation warfare."

The Russian military doctrine "combines low-end, hidden state involvement with high-end, direct, even braggadocio, superpower involvement," said Phillip Karber, president of the Potomac Foundation military consultancy. Karber has briefed U.S. military leaders on Russia's military behavior in the Ukraine conflict, based on observations during more than a dozen field visits.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/10/10/russia-transfers-ukraine-war-doctrine-syria/73595252/

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12. Zogby's junk social science masquerades as political analysis.

Last edited Sat Oct 10, 2015, 01:44 PM - Edit history (4)

To recap: drought and failed economic policies by a corrupt state system wreaked havoc on millions of Syrians driving them from their land in search of the means of survival. Their demands for economic justice and greater rights were brutally put down by the government. Repression, mass imprisonment, torture, and the wanton killing of civilians didn't silence the demonstrators; instead it led many to adopt violent means, as well.

The primary drivers of the Syrian refugee crisis are not economic policies and weather. That is patently absurd. Syria was a relatively stable, affluent and functioning state until early 2011, when a Sunni uprising was ignited by a coordinated regime change operation involving the US, UK, France, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Right along with the similar operation in Libya. The uprisings in both countries were orchestrated, violent revolts from the very beginning.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=3723275
Tue Sep 24, 2013, 04:29 PM
There were few lethal casualties in Syria for the first 6 weeks of the "Arab Spring" phase of the
rebellion. There were no massacres until after the April 8, 2011 violent demonstrations and gun battles in Dara'a, on the Jordanian border, that left more police dead than demonstrators. That series of events leading up to the first large scale violence is shown in the timeline here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Syrian_civil_war_%28January%E2%80%93April_2011%29

The Arab Spring was not originally met with much enthusiasm inside Syria. In fact, in the first five or six weeks it was largely ignored by both the opposition and the regime until foreign exile groups called for "Days of Rage" and armed insurrection broke out in Dara'a, which is acknowledged to be the place where the Syrian civil war started.

On April 8, snipers opened up on the crowds and on police in Dara'a. More Syrian policemen died that day than did demonstrators. An AP video of the gunmen can be viewed here:

As for the the standard media framing of the civil war as an entirely unprovoked slaughter of unarmed pro-democracy demonstrators by the military, that is a myth. The mob in Dara'ia was not unarmed and not peaceful. The tanks didn't roll in the streets of that city until the 13th, after some components of Syrian Army units defected and heavy fighting broke out.

I am afraid that what follows the Assad hereditary dictatorship will be worse for most Syrians than the regime that is being swept away by a larger religious war. Our involvement in that spreading war threatens further blowback for ourselves that will make 9/11 look trivial.

Not only does this article ignore the factor of regime change, it also transforms the primary sponsors of ISIS -- Saudi Arabia and Qatar -- into "our Arab allies." That may have been the case in 1990, but that cooperation to drive the Soviet Union out of Afghanistan is long past. They are no longer US "allies." Zogby's premises, and his conclusion below, are simply not grounded in reality:

What we ought to do, instead, is design a strategy utilizing all of the diplomatic and economic levers that are available to us and our NATO and Arab allies to pressure the Russians and the Iranians back to the Geneva negotiating process.

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14. Despite early signs of Russian buildup in Syria, US officials caught flat-footed

Among the first clues that Russia was mobilizing for a military offensive in Syria were requests Moscow began making in mid-August for permission to cross other countries' territory with more and larger aircraft.

"We were getting the word the Russians were asking for inordinate overflights," a senior Obama administration official said, referring to reports from U.S. allies receiving the requests. Russia was seeking clearance for not only cargo planes but also "fighter aircraft and bombers" that Syrian pilots had never been trained to fly, the official said. "It was clear that something pretty big was up."

But despite that early suspicion - which only intensified as Russia then deployed fighter jets and teams of military advisers - the United States seemed to be caught flat-footed by the barrage of airstrikes that Moscow launched last week.

The attacks pounded Syrian rebels who were trained and armed by the CIA over the past two years but who appeared to get no warning that they were in Russian jets' crosshairs. The strikes also damaged a fragile U.S. strategy that sustained an additional blow Friday when the Pentagon acknowledged that it was sharply scaling back its effort to build a force to battle the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL.

http://www.stripes.com/news/us/despite-early-signs-of-russian-buildup-in-syria-us-officials-caught-flat-footed-1.372674

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17. Russian volunteers fighting for Assad regime

War groupies.

MOSCOW - As fighting has dropped off in eastern Ukraine, pro-Russian rebels are weighing their options: wait for the conflict to resume, return to civilian life or even head to war-torn Syria.

"There are no more battles and some people are bored," a bearded rebel fighter who goes by the name of Turok (the "Turk&quot said.

"The guys I know have encouraged me to go to Syria, it's warm down there."

Over 18 months of fighting between government forces and pro-Moscow insurgents -- who the West and Kiev insists are backed by Russia -- has come to a sudden halt since the two sides agreed a new truce at the start of September.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=73587

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19. Syria Assad forces advance with Russia air support

BEIRUT - Syrian government forces captured a village from rebels in the central province of Hama on Saturday as they pushed a ground operation backed by Russian air support.

In Aleppo province to the north, rebels battled to reverse an advance by the Islamic State (ISIS) group that brought the jihadists to within a few kilometres (miles) of Syria's second city.

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In Hama, regime forces seized Atshan village from opposition fighters including Islamists and Al-Qaeda af

With support from Russian air strikes, they appear to be targeting the town of Khan Sheikhun, just across the provincial border in Idlib and on a key highway that runs from Aleppo to Damascus.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=73609

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24. US delivers missiles to Lebanon to defend Syria border

The United States provided the Lebanese Armed Forces with laser-guided artillery shells and Hellfire air-to-surface missiles, according to a statement issued by the US Embassy in Beirut on Friday.

The high-tech munitions are part of a $8.6 million aid package intended to help the LAF defend the country’s eastern border from Sunni terrorists and other militias trying to breach the border from the Syrian side.

The aid package includes 50 Hellfire missiles and 560 artillery shells, including the “precision munitions,” according to the embassy statement.

A Lebanese military source told Reuters that the Hellfire missiles and 155 mm “smart artillery shells” have already been delivered to the LAF.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/us-delivers-missiles-to-lebanon-to-defend-syria-border/