Two powerful Gulf sheikhs talk Syria with Putin

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The meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin took Sunday at Sochi on the sidelines of the Russian Grand Prix with the powerful Defense Minister of Saudi Arabia and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al Saud (son of King Salman) signifies a dramatic shift of the templates in the geopolitics of the Syrian question.

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The visits by Mohammed bin Salman and Sheikh Zayed to Russia would point in an opposite direction. It seems there could be a whole lot of highly motivated assessments floating around lately on the geopolitics of the Syrian question that border on disinformation or propaganda and are out of touch with the reality.

One key point to be noted is that Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the two key GCC powers, have opened a direct line to the Kremlin within no time after the US President Barack Obama summarily decided that the $500 million program to train a Syrian rebel force is being terminated.

Of course, without the US involvement, Washington’s regional allies – Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey in particular – are forced to do some quick rethink. After all, they are sensible enough to know their limits in confronting the Russian military might on own steam.

http://atimes.com/2015/10/two-powerful-gulf-sheikhs-talk-syria-with-putin/

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1. A buffer zone for Erdogan’s Turkic settlements in Syria?

Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan was in Brussels 4-6 October pushing EU for a Syrian buffer zone for humanitarian purposes, and as air cover for its “moderate rebels” to enter Syria to fight ISIS/Assad regime.
Erdogan

In view of the sudden influx of refugees to EU, Erdogan said, “The root cause of the refugee crisis today is the war that has been taking place in Syria and the state-sponsored terror actions which have been carried out by Assad himself,” and raised the issue of “a safe zone that would be protected from terrorism” and “a no-fly zone.”[1]

While it is true Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan are each hosting over one million refugees, various sources point to additional reasons why Turkey may be seeking a no-fly zone.

http://atimes.com/2015/10/a-buffer-zone-for-erdogans-turkic-settlements-in-syria/

[leveymg]

5. Turkey opened the door to the refugee outflow, and is now trying to force the terms of its closure.

Not going to work.

People tend to forget that the Syrian refugees were largely bottled up in camps inside Turkey, and when the Erogan gov't opened the frontier with Greece and Bulgaria earlier this year that the largest outflow began. The route through Libya and across the Mediterranean is more dangerous and the flow of Syrians who travel that route is small by comparison.

?itok=-YBUpW0L

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6. Yes, he did.

He thought he was being clever.

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8. The ones who planned the Syria overthrow didn't believe Assad could hold out this long. They didn't

understand the power that fear of genocide has for the Alawites and their Christian allies. The Alawite know what their fate would be if they gave up and allowed the Sunni majority to take Damascus. The Hutu and Tutsis are an example, as are the Armenians under Ataturk.

I put this squarely on the planners, who include Clinton and Petraeus and the neocons, as well as the enablers, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Gulf States. Another disaster for the neocons that the world has to deal with.

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10. Watch. nt

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18. What I foresee is regional civil war and a dissolution of the Sykes-Picot lines in the sand.

In fact, I would say that Bernard Lewis, and his followers, were the principal architects of this new map of the Mideast.

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25. You are right about the second, I think.

But some things remain up in the air.

I have some reading to do, I'll be back later.

[leveymg]

26. Here's an insightful 2004 article on the Kemalist Lewis Doctrine, that foretells its consequences

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2004/0411.hirsh.html

In Cheney's bunker

Lewis's basic premise, put forward in a series of articles, talks, and bestselling books, is that the West--what used to be known as Christendom--is now in the last stages of a centuries-old struggle for dominance and prestige with Islamic civilization. (Lewis coined the term "clash of civilizations," using it in a 1990 essay titled "The Roots of Muslim Rage," and Samuel Huntington admits he picked it up from him.) Osama bin Laden, Lewis thought, must be viewed in this millennial construct as the last gasp of a losing cause, brazenly mocking the cowardice of the "Crusaders." Bin Laden's view of America as a "paper tiger" reflects a lack of respect for American power throughout the Arab world. And if we Americans, who trace our civilizational lineage back to the Crusaders, flagged now, we would only invite future attacks. Bin Laden was, in this view, less an aberrant extremist than a mainstream expression of Muslim frustration, welling up from the anti-Western nature of Islam. "I have no doubt that September 11 was the opening salvo of the final battle," Lewis told me in an interview last spring. Hence the only real answer to 9/11 was a decisive show of American strength in the Arab world; the only way forward, a Kemalist conquest of hearts and minds. And the most obvious place to seize the offensive and end the age-old struggle was in the heart of the Arab world, in Iraq.

This way of thinking had the remarkable virtue of appealing powerfully to both the hard-power enthusiasts in the administration, principally Bush and Donald Rumsfeld, who came into office thinking that the soft Clinton years had made America an easy target and who yearned to send a post-9/11 message of strength; and to neoconservatives from the first Bush administration such as Paul Wolfowitz, who were looking for excuses to complete their unfinished business with Saddam from 1991 and saw 9/11 as the ultimate refutation of the "realist" response to the first Gulf War. Leaving Saddam in power in '91, betraying the Shiites, and handing Kuwait back to its corrupt rulers had been classic realism: Stability was all. But it turned out that the Arab world wasn't stable, it was seething. No longer could the Arabs be an exception to the rule of post-Cold War democratic transformation, merely a global gas station. The Arabs had to change too, fundamentally, just as Lewis (and Ataturk) had said. But change had to be shoved down their throats--Arab tribal culture understood only force and was too resistant to change, Lewis thought--and it had to happen quickly. This, in turn, required leaving behind Islam's anti-modern obsessions.

Iraq and its poster villain, Saddam Hussein, offered a unique opportunity for achieving this transformation in one bold stroke (remember "shock and awe"?) while regaining the offensive against the terrorists. So, it was no surprise that in the critical months of 2002 and 2003, while the Bush administration shunned deep thinking and banned State Department Arabists from its councils of power, Bernard Lewis was persona grata, delivering spine-stiffening lectures to Cheney over dinner in undisclosed locations. Abandoning his former scholarly caution, Lewis was among the earliest prominent voices after September 11 to press for a confrontation with Saddam, doing so in a series of op-ed pieces in The Wall Street Journal with titles like "A War of Resolve" and "Time for Toppling." An official who sat in on some of the Lewis-Cheney discussions recalled, "His view was: 'Get on with it. Don't dither.'" Animated by such grandiose concepts, and like Lewis quite certain they were right, the strategists of the Bush administration in the end thought it unnecessary to prove there were operational links between Saddam and al Qaeda. These were good "bureaucratic" reasons for selling the war to the public, to use Wolfowitz's words, but the real links were deeper: America was taking on a sick civilization, one that it had to beat into submission. Bin Laden's supposedly broad Muslim base, and Saddam's recalcitrance to the West, were part of the same pathology.

The administration's vision of postwar Iraq was also fundamentally Lewisian, which is to say Kemalist. Paul Wolfowitz repeatedly invoked secular, democratic Turkey as a "useful model for others in the Muslim world," as the deputy secretary of defense termed it in December 2002 on the eve of a trip to lay the groundwork for what he thought would be a friendly Turkey's role as a staging ground for the Iraq war. Another key Pentagon neocon and old friend of Lewis's, Harold Rhode, told associates a year ago that "we need an accelerated Turkish model" for Iraq, according to a source who talked with him. (Lewis dedicated a 2003 book, The Crisis of Islam, to Rhode whom "I got to know when he was studying Ottoman registers," Lewis told me.) And such men thought that Ahmad Chalabi--also a protégé of Lewis's--might make a fine latter-day Ataturk--strong, secular, pro-Western, and friendly towards Israel. L. Paul Bremer III, the former U.S. civil administrator in Iraq, was not himself a Chalabite, but he too embraced a top-down Kemalist approach to Iraq's resurrection. The role of the Islamic community, meanwhile, was consistently marginalized in the administration's planning. U.S. officials saw Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most prestigious figure in the country, as a clueless medieval relic. Even though military intelligence officers were acutely aware of Sistani's importance--having gathered information on him for more than a year before the invasion--Bremer and his Pentagon overseers initially sidelined the cleric, defying his calls for early elections.

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27. They are morons, I am not interested in them.

I've been waiting for this since Raygun was first elected. Once they go full-tilt down jingo-road, it's just a matter of time. There are no exceptions.

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29. But, they are the US foreign policy establishment. They are like those in Whitehall in 1945 who

believed that the Empire would survive, forever. They were Churchillians who had their heads in the past, confronted with the ruins of their pre-War policies, and no way to govern, but still ran things from their feathered nests in the permanent British establishment. Hillary is one of them - she, as well, doesn't seem to understand (or doesn't acknowledge) that the Mideast tail now wags the American dog.

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30. I know who they are. I gotta go. nt

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28. A Decisive Shift in the Balance of Power

The world is beginning to realize that a seachange in world affairs occured on September 28 when President Putin of Russia stated in his UN speech that Russia can no longer tolerate Washington’s vicious, stupid, and failed policies that have unleashed chaos, which is engulfing the Middle East and now Europe. Two days later, Russia took over the military situation in Syria and began the destruction of the Islamic State forces.

Perhaps among Obama’s advisors there are a few who are not drowning in hubris and can understand this seachange. Sputnik news reports that some high-level security advisors to Obama have advised him to withdraw US military forces from Syria and give up his plan to overthrow Assad. They advised Obama to cooperate with Russia in order to stop the refugee flow that is overwhelming Washington’s vassals in Europe. The influx of unwanted peoples is making Europeans aware of the high cost of enabling US foreign policy. Advisors have told Obama that the idiocy of the neoconservatives’ policies threaten Washington’s empire in Europe.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/10/12/a-decisive-shift-in-the-balance-of-power/

Have a pep talk.

Roberts is a bit too emotionally invested, but he is more or less right at this point. Things are going to change, but the result will be peace, or perhaps I should say peace-ish, the killing is not over for a while yet, not war. I believe the Israelis will jump right in too, and we are debilitated by the Bushite follies and unless the real goobers get the reins will take the hand offered to us.

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2. Norman Bailey: a military coup in Turkey?

By Norman A. Bailey on October 11, 2015 in Chatham House Rules
As David points out, Erdogan’s external problems are increasing rapidly. His domestic problems are increasing even faster and are likely to be even more damaging. He has systematically alienated a very large percentage of the population of Turkey: Kemalists, Kurds, Alevis and Gulenists. In all, perhaps sixty or so percent of the population. Next month’s elections are likely to be curiously irrelevant in the contex of the ongoing meltdown of the Turkish polity. Unlike most analysts, however, I do not see the most likely outcome as either a failed state or increasing authoritarian control by the governing party. I think the most likely scenario will be a military takeover when things reach the appropriate moment of impending disintegration. The Kemalists would enthusiastically support such a coup. If the military were sufficiently intelligent, they would mollify the Alevis and Gulenists; not that difficult. The touchiest situation would be with the Kurds, who might well try to take advantage of such a coup by declaring separation from the rest of Turkey, which the army would have to violently oppose. If the Kurds were to resist that temptation, however, I see no reason why the army would not also make a deal with Ocalan, releasing him from prison and offering an extensive autonomy for his people, in return for helping Turkey control its southern border.

The Obama administration could be counted on to miss yet another opportunity to do the right thing and condemn the coup as “anti-democratic” (see Egypt), but just about everyone else, except possibly Iran, would welcome such a development.
Share this:

http://atimes.com/2015/10/norman-bailey-a-military-coup-in-turkey/

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3. Angelo Codevilla responds: Present maps don’t reflect the region’s realities

Henceforth, preserving Erdogan’s own power (and life itself) will be his principal preoccupation. This will make him at once more subject to various influences, and even more irascible.

But, henceforth, regardless of the substance of his moves, these can only be weaker. Erdogan’s support for his favorites in former Syria must decline. Mere non-interference will be the best he can do for them. Even his war on the Kurds must weaken. In short, he is riding on a course of events the driving forces of which he can no longer affect. With every passing day, he begins to resemble Assad – the plaything of others.

For those who deal with Turkey, Erdogan’s growing hunger for support opens opportunities. Through his Saudi creditors, the U.S. can press him to cut all traffic of food as well as arms and people to Sunni rebel areas. While it would be disastrous for the U. S. to bargain away any support for the Kurds, it might well promise to use its good offices to help draw fair borders for the new Kurdistan.
For any good to come from Turkey’s self imposed disaster, U.S policy makers would have to open their minds to the reality that current maps no longer reflect the region’s realities, and, yes, that all of their “schools” should take a lesson from the Putin School Of International Affairs.

http://atimes.com/2015/10/angelo-codevilla-responds-present-maps-dont-reflect-the-regions-realities/

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4. . nt

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7. Council conclusions on Syria

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2015/10/12-fac-conclusions-syria/

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59. Erjavec says EU ready for conditional Syria dialogue with Russia

Luxembourg, 12 October - Foreign Minister Karl Erjavec announced that the EU was prepared under certain conditions to engage in dialogue with Russia in relations to Syria, as he emerged from an EU ministerial in Luxembourg on Monday.

https://english.sta.si/2185546/erjavec-says-eu-ready-for-conditional-syria-dialogue-with-russia

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9. Merkel to visit Turkey to discuss terror, Syria

The chancellor would meet President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu for talks on "the joint battle against terrorism, the situation in Syria and managing the refugee crisis," said Steffen Seibert on Oct. 12.

Merkel had reacted with "great dismay" to the double suicide bombing, the deadliest attack in modern Turkey's history, and had condemned it as "a particularly cowardly act aimed directly against civil rights, democracy and peace", Seibert said.

She had sent a condolence letter to Davutoglu and telephoned Erdoğan at the weekend.

A German foreign ministry spokesman said Turkey was a "key country" to help Europe manage its record migrant influx, including the 800,000 to one million people expected to reach Germany this year.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/merkel-to-visit-turkey-to-discuss-terror-syria.aspx?pageID=238&nID=89737&NewsCatID=510

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32. Turkish PM blames Ankara bombing on Islamic State

The Islamic State (IS) group is the prime suspect in the Ankara bombings that killed nearly 100 on Saturday, Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu has said.

No group has said it carried out the attack, but the government believes that two male suicide bombers caused the explosions, hitting a peace rally.

The official death toll is 97, but one of the main groups at the march put the number of dead at 128.

The funerals of more of the victims are taking place on Monday.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34505030

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57. PM: Turkey ready to talk with Russia, Iran about political solution in Syria

Turkey is ready to hold talks with Russia and Iran to work towards a political solution in Syria but will not adopt a foreign policy stance that "legitimizes the Syrian regime,” Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said on Monday.

"We won't change our stance as long as the Syrian regime carries out attacks [on civilians], Davutoğlu said in response to a question about whether Turkey should revise its Syria policy in an interview on the NTV channel on Monday. “We don't see the Russian intervention as a legitimate [action]. We are ready to hold talks both with Russian and Iran for a political solution. There is an Iranian general and Russian warplanes in Syria," he added.

Davutoğlu also reaffirmed Ankara's stance regarding the Syrian pro-Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), which has links with the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), saying that emergence of Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) had emboldened the PYD and the Syrian regime.

Turkey views the PYD as a terrorist group, a stance that is not shared by its Western allies, the US and EU, which are aligned with the Kurdish group in the fight against ISIL in Syria.

http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_pm-turkey-ready-to-talk-with-russia-iran-about-political-solution-in-syria_401334.html

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11. Putin, Saudi defence minister to cooperate in Syria

Sochi: Russian President Vladimir Putin met Saudi Arabia's defence minister on Sunday, in Moscow's biggest attempt so far to reach out to enemies of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad since Russia joined the conflict with air strikes.

Speaking after the meeting between Putin and Sheikh Mohammed bin Salman, a son of the Saudi king, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said both countries were willing to cooperate in Syria and wanted to prevent the formation of a "terrorist caliphate".

"On both sides, as far as I can tell, there is an understanding that today's meeting can advance our cooperation," Lavrov said.

Russia's intervention in Syria has infuriated Assad's regional foes, including Saudi Arabia, who say Russian air strikes have been hitting rebel groups opposed to Assad, and not just the Islamic State fighters Moscow says it is targeting.

http://nation.com.pk/international/12-Oct-2015/putin-saudi-defence-minister-to-cooperate-in-syria

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12. Syrian Kurds, Arab rebels form alliance against 'IS'

Syrian Kurds, Arab rebels and a Syriac militia have announced an alliance to fight the "Islamic State." The groups, backed with US air power and arms, are expected to launch an offensive against IS.

The new force, the Syrian Democratic Forces, formally cements an alliance that has been in place for months as the groups fought the Islamic State in northeast Syria. It includes the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG, its women's fighting force YPJ, alongside Arab rebel groups and tribes and a Syriac militia.

The announcement of a "unified national military force" comes as the United States ended a failed program last week to train and equip "moderate" Syrian rebels outside of the country. The Obama administration will instead arm vetted forces on the ground in Syria.

The US has provided the YPG, which US defense officials have described as the most reliable and best fighting forces on the ground, with air support against the Islamic State. Backed by US air power the Syrian Kurds were able to push back the extremist group's siege on Kobane earlier this year, and then moved on to take more territory, including the strategic border crossing of Tal Abyad (Gire Spi).

http://www.dw.com/en/syrian-kurds-arab-rebels-form-alliance-against-is/a-18776497

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15. Syrian Kurdish militia joins new alliance

Beirut: A Kurdish militia that has been backed by U.S.-led air strikes in Syria has joined a new military alliance that includes Arab groups, a statement released overnight said.

The alliance calling itself the Democratic Forces of Syria includes the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia and Syrian Arab groups that have already fought alongside it against the Islamic State militant group in northern Syria.

It comes soon after the United States announced a shake-up of its support to Syrian rebels fighting IS, effectively ending its programme to train fighters outside Syria and focus instead on providing weapons to groups whose commanders have been U.S.-vetted.

The YPG has to date proved the most effective partner on the ground for U.S.-led air strikes against Islamic State, taking large amounts of territory from the jihadists in northeast Syria this year.

http://nation.com.pk/international/12-Oct-2015/syrian-kurdish-militia-joins-new-alliance

[amandabeech]

36. Now that ISIS has made gains near Aleppo,

perhaps the rebel Arabs will actually take the guns and shoot ISIS a little.

Meanwhile, the US Navy is preparing to sail into the South China Sea according to the excerpts of a WSJ article quoted over at Zerohedge.

Obama isn't all that interested in the Middle East, IMHO. He's interested in the TPP countries and China, and in order to keep the TPP countries happy, he has to go after those Chinese forts in the South China Sea.

I certainly hope that Obama and the Navy know what they're doing.

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38. Still a bit murky, but I think a deal has been cut over Syria, still waiting for new clues.

We can climb aboard or get left behind.

And I think Ukraine will settle down now. As much as these things ever do.

I hope you are right in S. China Sea. Obama has been prudent, I expect he will continue that, but you can see it wears on him.

I see hints of sanity in the Defense news too.

Very good to see you around.

[amandabeech]

43. Thank you!

I'm back for a few days in Maryland, then back to Michigan. Unfortunately, my Mom died in July at the age of 93. She had a quick and easy passing after enjoying good health all her life--she drove until she was almost 93. I'm trying to clean up the house and figure out what I'm going to do now that my elders are gone. That will take some time so I'm planning on getting satellite internet at the Michigan house.

Meanwhile, all hell has broken out in various places in the world. All I can do is shake my head.

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45. Please accept my condolences.

I have been there myself, more than once, it's a tough job.

I've been wondering what to do in that way for some time now, meanwhile I have my hobbies like this ...

"Live, it's a mistake not to."

I will look forward to your return.

[amandabeech]

49. If you haven't been through this, it's hard to imagine it.

This isn't my first time, either.

Thank you for your condolences. I'm doing pretty well. It helps that she was up there in years, and expressed many times a readiness to go. She only was out of her house for the last month--not a bad exit. I hope to be as fortunate.

I'll be around for a few days before I disappear again!

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51. Yes. I cried.

You realize none of the stuff mattered at all. I'm still trying to decide what to do with some of the stuff. Doesn't sound like you have that luxury.

[amandabeech]

53. I cried, too, with three of them.

The first was really bad.

The house is in a lovely area not far from Lake Michigan, and I may try keeping it as a summer house. Or I could add to my growing collection of storage lockers! With Mom's I now have four in two states and I may be going for a fifth here in the DC area.

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55. You could use it for storage. That would justify keeping it for a while ...

It would make a great summer house. Have to do some hauling.

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39. I think that one you responded to is nice because it means the Kurds will be protected.

Under our umbrella, and from what I read Putin wants to support them too.

And that means Erdogan is out of luck, though he may get Allepo according to some theories.

[amandabeech]

44. Erdogan really is in a heap of trouble,

but would he really want Aleppo? My experience with Turks here in the DC area makes me think that the Turks and the Sunni Arabs would want to be in the same country. Every Turk that I met despised the Arabs, and I mean despised! It would not be a happy marriage, and I don't think that Erdogan would be able to keep the Arabs from staging guerilla raids into what is left of Alawite Syria.

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46. Yep. I think he is toast. They really kicked him in the nuts.

Well I don't know about Aleppo. But on the other hand, even if Erdogan eats it, you can't just stiff Turkey, and if I am not mistaken Kurdistan is gone. So it's an issue of compensation or butt-covering as you choose. And likewise the Sauds. They will have to clean up their own mess, but their security will not be further threatened if they make a deal and keep it, and give up their provocations. That one bears further watching.

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47. The Chinese have issues there too, so it's really unclear. nt

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60. China expounds on its Syria crisis stance

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"China supports counter-terrorism actions that are in line with international laws and endorsed by involved countries," Wang told visiting Syrian Presidential Political and Media Advisor Bouthaina Shaaban on Monday in Beijing.

"We hope all parties could strengthen communication and cooperation, as well as join forces in counter-terrorism actions," the foreign ministry's website quoted Wang as saying.

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"China opposes easy interference in other countries' domestic affairs. China supports Syria's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, as well as its approach to find its own path of development that is consistent with its national circumstances," Wang told Shaaban.

"Wang's speech clarifies China's attitude at a time when the geopolitical environment is experiencing critical change. It should be noted that Wang's statement focuses on counter-terrorism, a cautious response to the West's accusations that Russian airstrikes are meant to hit rebel forces," Li Weijian, a professor of West Asian and African Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, told the Global Times.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/946781.shtml

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40. And FSA perhaps, not clear on that.

But I am feeling better today about it ...

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63. New Syrian rebel alliance formed, says weapons on the way

Fighters from the Free Syrian Army (L) and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (C), join forces to fight ISIS militants in Kobani, Syria, on November 19, 2014 (AP Photo/Jake Simkin, File)

http://english.aawsat.com/2015/10/article55345394/new-syrian-rebel-alliance-formed-says-weapons-on-the-way

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13. Sri Lanka and the World: Terrorism and Effective Reconciliation

“There is no other solution to the Syrian crisis than strengthening the effective government structures and rendering them help in fighting terrorism.”
- Vladimir Putin, President, Russian Federation

With the ongoing Russian bombing campaign in Syria, for the first time, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has shown confidence in defeating the Islamic State (IS). The sustained destruction caused by the IS in Syria is nothing short of a human tragedy, and according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, over 200,000 Syrians have been killed since the start of the country's civil war in 2011. Millions of refugees fleeing Syria has become one of the biggest issues in Europe. The IS’s brutality has drastically affected important infrastructure and has also caused the destruction of historical sites such as that of the Arc of Triumph in Palmyra.

Survival overpowers the Syrian population’s interests above power play between the global actors. The Syrians and the surrounding nations want a safe and better life. Unfortunately, the global institutions have miserably failed to address this crisis so far. A grand alliance to defeat the brutal terrorist group could create a measure of hope. However, dismantling the supply of weaponry to the terrorist outfit and weakening the group will be key to the defeat the IS. A Sri Lankan lesson is relevant in here. Valiant armed soldiers and the Sri Lankan military and intelligence defeated the Liberation Tigers of the Tamil Eelam (LTTE), cutting off all weapons supplies to precision.

Sri Lanka proved to the entire world that any terrorist outfit can be destroyed with will and skill. In his recent remarks at the UN, incumbent Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena clearly stated that his country’s experience could be studied by other developing countries affected by terrorism and Sri Lanka was prepared to engage in an active dialogue with those affected countries and would continue to campaign against terrorism.

http://www.ipcs.org/article/south-asia/sri-lanka-and-the-world-terrorism-and-effective-reconciliation-4922.html

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31. After dodging war crimes probe, Lanka focuses on truth, reconciliation

Sri Lanka’s nine-month old President Maithripala Sirisena seems to be playing his cards just right.

Sirisena and incumbent Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe appear to be making friends across the world, including with the all-powerful United States, which has helped them dodge an international war crimes probe.

Within just months after taking over office, they have been able to finally thwart repeated attempts for an international probe. Instead, they have convinced the international community to allow Sri Lanka to conduct a domestic probe over the alleged war crimes that took place during the final stages of the armed conflict against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in 2009, where over 40,000 civilians were believed to have been killed.

In an important turning point, the resolution on Sri Lanka titled ‘Promoting reconciliation, accountability and human rights in Sri Lanka’ presented at the 30th session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, was adopted on October 1. The resolution, which secured the support of 25 countries including the US, was passed after no country sought a vote on the text.

http://atimes.com/2015/10/after-dodging-war-crimes-probe-lanka-focuses-on-truth-reconciliation/

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14. Syrian Army Gains Control Over Large Part of Aleppo, ISIL Suffers Losses

Syria's government-controlled army has regained control over large parts of the country's Aleppo governorate, a Syrian Armed Forces spokesman said Monday.

JABLEH (Sputnik) — The Syrian army has continued its ground operation in the territory captured by terrorists.

"After causing massive losses to the Islamic State organization, our troops took control over large areas," Gen. Ali Mayhoub told reporters.

A large number of terrorists is moving from Syria to the Turkish border amid the Syrian government-led army's offensive.

"Success achieved by our armed forces since the beginning of the operation, concentrated strikes from the air, as well as artillery strikes on the terrorists' control and command points are undermining their spirit. Many of them are moving to the Turkish border."

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151012/1028396355/syrian-army-gains-control-over-aleppo.html

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22. Syrian army, Russian jets drive back rebels in fiercest clashes for days - monitor

BEIRUT, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Syrian army and allied forces supported by Russian warplanes made further advances as they pressed an offensive against insurgents on Monday, in the fiercest clashes for nearly a week, a monitor said.

Russian jets carried out at least 30 air strikes on the town of Kafr Nabuda in Hama province in western Syria, and hundreds of shells hit the area as the Syrian army and Hezbollah fighters seized part of it, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

Forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have in the past few days recaptured territory close to the government's coastal heartland in the west thanks to Russia's intervention, reversing rebel advances made earlier this year.

Moscow says its air campaign targets Islamic State, but most of the strikes have hit rival insurgent groups fighting against Assad, some of which are supported by the United States.

http://www.trust.org/item/20151012094825-4u0z5/?source=fiHeadlineStory

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16. Putin says Russia’s campaign in Syria is more effective than America’s

MOSCOW (Tribune News Service) — Russian President Vladimir Putin defended his military’s air and cruise-missile strikes on terrorist targets in Syria, saying the campaign was already more effective than discontinued U.S. efforts to support some militant groups.

President Barack Obama’s administration last week abandoned its attempt to build and train a rebel force in Syria to take on the Islamic State group. The U.S. will instead focus on equipping selected leaders and providing air support to their units, including Arab and Kurdish groups in Syria.

“It would have been better to give us $500 million,” Putin said of the aborted U.S. program to fund the Free Syrian Army. “At least we would have used it more effectively from the point of view of fighting international terrorism.”

In a television interview broadcast Sunday, Putin said Russia’s involvement was legal and reasonable because it followed a Syrian request for assistance. He questioned whether the U.S. had lived up to either of those standards.

http://www.stripes.com/news/europe/putin-says-russia-s-campaign-in-syria-is-more-effective-than-america-s-1.372876

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17. Russian Syria intervention a 'game-changer': EU's Mogherini

(LUXEMBOURG) - EU foreign affairs head Federica Mogherini warned Monday that Russian intervention in Syria was a very high-risk "game-changer" as the international community seeks a political solution to the war.

"It is for sure a game-changer, it has some very worrying elements... it has to be coordinated, otherwise it risks being extremely dangerous, not only from a political point of view but also military," Mogherini said.

She said Russian military support for long-time Moscow ally President Bashar al-Assad had to be directed against the extremist jihadi fighters of Islamic State, not against the rebel groups seeking his ouster backed by the West.

Moscow says its air and missile strikes include IS, but the West believes they seek to bolster Assad's position and let him to retake ground lost in the past 18 months.

http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/syria-conflict.14pq

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19. Iraqi people Hailing Putin for Syria Push

One of the most popular Facebook posts in Iraq’s Shiite heartland is a Photoshopped image of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia dressed in the robe of a southern tribal sheikh.

It was the American-led invasion in 2003 that toppled Saddam Hussein and empowered Iraq’s long-repressed Shiite majority. The United States also took the lead more than a year ago to assemble a coalition to conduct airstrikes in Syria and Iraq against the Sunni militants of the Islamic State.

But with the struggle against the Islamic State largely stalemated, it is the naked display of Russian military power in neighboring Syria, as well as the leadership of “Sheikh Putin,” that is being applauded by residents of this Shiite power center. Russian planes continued to hit targets in Syria on Sunday, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

“What the people in the street care about is how to get Daesh out of Iraq,” Ibrahim Bahr al-Ulum, a member of Iraq’s Parliament, said, using an Arabic name for the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. “Now they feel Russia is more serious than the United States.”

http://en.abna24.com/service/middle-east-west-asia/archive/2015/10/12/714762/story.html

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20. Putin: Military operations will end with Assad army’s progress

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the Russian Air Force’s military operation in Syria will end when the army of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad makes progress on the ground.

“We cannot take additional obligations and never did. I have said from the beginning that the active phase of our work will be limited till the end of the Syrian army attacks,” Putin told Russia’s Channel One yesterday.

The Russian president ruled out the possibility of a ground offensive in Syria, saying: “This is not possible, no matter what happens, we do not intend to do so, our Syrian friends know that.”

Putin stressed that everything the Russian troops are doing in Syria is being done according to plans and not some random acts, pointing out that Russia has collected information from the air before starting this operation.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/europe/21570-putin-military-operations-will-end-with-assad-armys-progress

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21. Washington’s Civil War over Russia Intel

As Russia continues airstrikes in Syria, a fight is brewing between members of Congress and U.S. intelligence agencies over what lawmakers were told about the Russian military operations, and when.

The House Intelligence Committee, which oversees the CIA and other spy agencies responsible for tracking the Russian military buildup in Syria, is “looking at possible problems in the timely provision of information to Congress,” a congressional staff member told The Daily Beast. Three other officials confirmed that the inquiry—which is not a formal investigation—is underway and that lawmakers have been talking to intelligence officials about whether their reports to Congress accurately predicted when the Russian air strikes would begin and that they would target rebel groups fighting the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

U.S. intelligence officials fired back that they had provided lawmakers with warnings about Russia’s intentions to begin military operations in Syria, including in the weeks before airstrikes began in late September.

“Any suggestion that the intelligence community was surprised by Russia’s military support to the Assad regime is misleading,” a senior intelligence official told The Daily Beast. Members of Congress had access to intelligence reports on the movements of Russian aircraft into Syria as well as the buildup of ground troops and could read them anytime they chose, another official said.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/12/washington-s-civil-war-over-russia-intel.html

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23. Syrian opposition boycotts UN peace talks

Syria’s key opposition National Coalition said on Sunday it would boycott talks proposed by UN peace envoy Staffan de Mistura over concerns about his plan and Russia’s airstrikes in the country.

The National Coalition has “decided not to participate in the consultative working groups and considers adherence to the Geneva communiqué and (UN) Security Council resolutions and an end to Russian aggression to be the basis for the resumption of the negotiation process,” it said in a statement quoted by the AFP news agency.

The Geneva communiqué is a document agreed at a peace conference in 2012 that drew up baselines for a Syria peace deal including the formation of a transitional governing body with executive powers.

The opposition says President Bashar Al-Assad cannot stay on during any transition period, but the regime says his departure is not on the table.

http://www.syriahr.com/en/2015/10/syrian-opposition-boycotts-un-peace-talks/

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24. . nt

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33. British diplomat summoned by Russia over 'missile' reports

Russia summoned Britain's defence attache in Moscow to explain reports that RAF pilots had been authorised to shoot down Russian aircraft in the Middle East, the Foreign Office says.

Newspapers said RAF Tornados in Iraq had been fitted with heat-seeking missiles designed for aerial combat.

But the Ministry of Defence said there was "absolutely no truth" in this.

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However, the Ministry of Defence in London has denied any suggestion that they are being armed with air-to-air missiles so as to defend themselves in any encounter.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-34502545

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34. Priority in Syria is to end the civil war

Two opposing forces in the region have started to talk despite deep-seated reservations on both sides. The Russian and Iranian alliance backing Syrian President Bashar Al Assad and the Saudi-led coalition that backed the Syrian rebels recognise that the persistent lack of action to end the murderous Syrian civil war should not continue and progress towards the Geneva political process is vital. The chaos of the civil war has also allowed the terrorists of Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) to establish control over a dangerously large territory and people, which must be stopped.

It was in this context that His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces met Russian President Vladimir Putin this week in Sochi, after which Shaikh Mohammad said that the UAE will make every effort to back political solutions that would safeguard the security and stability of Syria, as well as its territorial integrity. Shaikh Mohammad put this in the context of an urgent need to end the Syrian crisis that has claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of Syrians, displaced millions of innocent people, as well as resulted in the loss of years of human and economic development.

Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister Prince Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud also met Putin, after which the Russian side said that both Saudi Arabia and Russia have similar objectives, which is not to let a terrorist caliphate take over Syria. Prince Mohammad expressed Saudi Arabia’s long-standing anxiety over Russia’s military intervention in Syria and the country’s possible alliance with Iran, but added that Saudi Arabia was in favour of a political solution in Syria. Prince Mohammad maintained that this required the departure of Al Assad, a staunch ally of Moscow. But many others, including US Secretary of State John Kerry, have agreed that Al Assad must go in time, but can remain as part of an interim regime.

http://m.gulfnews.com/opinion/editorials/priority-in-syria-is-to-end-the-civil-war-1.1599497

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35. . nt

[amandabeech]

37. In other words, the Saudis are running out of money,

and wish to use what they have to bomb the Houthis in what is left of Yemen.

Or did Putin the the Saudi Prince just discuss the price of oil?

Enquiring minds want to know.

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41. Yep.

I think maybe a deal will be cut in Yemen too.

And I think all of those subjects came up.

Had they not decided that revenge was the thing in Yemen, Putin would not have them by the balls now. Pity.

Very messy.

[amandabeech]

54. If you wanted to be really conspiratorial,

you might think that Iran and Russia cooked up the Houthi thing to distract the Saudis.

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58. The "Brzezinski Gambit".

No I think they are dumb all on their own. They were warned.

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42. The main thing I am wondering about is to what extent Putin will curb the Iranians.

In Iraq & Syria. I would assume a lot, but they have some people who are nuts too.

And that will take a while to see,

[amandabeech]

48. There are complete nuts in all the crowds,

including Russia, the US, China and Japan.

I'm sure that you've seen references to the Fred Thompson scene in "The Hunt for Red October."

Then there's a thesis from Margaret MacMillan's book on WWI to the effect that lesser allies can get their sponsors involved in big messes in which the sponsors really don't want to be involved.

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50. That's why I hide down here.

And vice-versa. Someone brought up "A Distant Mirror" by Tuchmann a while back, I've been thinking of Ms Tuchmann a lot of late.

But I see your point.

[amandabeech]

52. One of my fave movies!

I've read a couple of Tuchman's but not that one. It's going on my winter reading list!

Putin really has a lot of trouble on his southern flank. He has to get that oil price up, or he's not going to be able to hold it. He also needs to consider whether his force of 2-year, poorly trained enlisted personnel will serve him well if the jihadi types continue to strengthen.

And if Putin and the former SSRs don't hold, China will be in a world of hurt, too.

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56. I think they know it. Not looking for "foreign adventures".

More trying to get a handle on things while there is still time.

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61. I'd Give Obama's Syria Policy a B+

"I don’t have a lot of good things to say about the Obama administration’s Syria policy," says Dan Drezner. He links to Adam Elkus, who calls Obama's Syria strategy "semi-competent." At the BBC, Tara McKelvey writes about Robert Ford, former US ambassador to Syria, who was close to the Syrian opposition and wanted to arm them when the Assad regime started to crumble. "People in the intelligence community said the time to arm the rebels was 2012," she writes. The problem is that officials in Washington were unsure that Ford really knew the opposition well enough. "Most of the rebels, he said, weren't 'ideologically pure', not in the way US officials wanted. 'In wars like that, there is no black and white,' he said."

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But those are relative nits, and I'd be curious to hear more from Drezner about this. He basically agrees that arming rebels hasn't worked well in the Middle East, and there's little chance it would have worked well in Syria. "There is a strong and bipartisan 21st-century record of U.S. administrations applying military force in the Middle East with the most noble of intentions," he says, "and then making the extant situation much, much worse." He also agrees that Obama's big-picture view of Syria is correct. "The president has determined that Syria is not a core American interest and therefore does not warrant greater investments of American resources. It’s a cold, calculating, semi-competent strategy. But it has the virtue of being better than the suggested hawkish alternatives." He agrees that those "hawkish alternatives" are basically nuts.

So why exactly is Obama's record in Syria "semi-competent"? Why does Drezner not have much good to say about it? My only serious criticism is that Obama did too much: he never should have talked about red lines and he never should have agreed to arm and train the opposition at all. But given the real-world pressures on him, it's impressive that he's managed to restrict American intervention as much as he has. I doubt anyone else could have done better.

There is something genuinely baffling about American hawks who have presided over failure after failure but are always certain that next time will be different. But why? If anything, Syria is more tangled and chaotic than Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Afghanistan, or any of the other Middle Eastern countries we've gotten involved in since 2001. What kind of dreamy naivete—or willful blindness—does it take to think that we could intervene successfully there?

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2015/10/id-give-obamas-syria-policy-b

This approximates my view.

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62. The one question that hawks need to answer about Syria

By Daniel W. Drezner

The hard-working staff here at Spoiler Alerts has discussed the mess in Syria a lot in recent weeks, to the point of accidentally midwifing a conspiracy theory. Other things happening in the world should probably be talked about as well, so I’d like to pivot away from this topic.

As a parting shot, however, I was struck by this exchange Sunday on “Fareed Zakaria GPS” between Zakaria and the Wall Street Journal’s Bret Stephens. For anyone familiar with Stephens’s oeuvre, it should come as no surprise that he wants to intervene more forcefully in the Syrian civil war. Then Zakaria asked him the following question:

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I don’t have a lot of good things to say about the Obama administration’s Syria policy, but I will say that it possesses one virtue: The president has determined that Syria is not a core American interest and therefore does not warrant greater investments of American resources. It’s a cold, calculating, semi-competent strategy. But it has the virtue of being better than the suggested hawkish alternatives.

The next time a hawk proposes to ramp up American activity and effort in Syria, see how they answer Zakaria’s question. Because if they can’t tie foreign policy outputs to foreign policy outcomes, then they are simply puffing out their chest in the hope that you will be impressed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/10/12/the-one-question-that-hawks-need-to-answer-about-syria/