We got ISIS wrong in Syria. Let’s get it right in Afghanistan

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Be under no illusion: the Islamic State has arrived in Afghanistan.

Just as the country is gripped by an economic exodus of ordinary people seeking better opportunities elsewhere, ISIS is spreading its tentacles into Afghanistan’s most lawless territories in an attempt to establish influence in a region seen as vital to the group’s end-game: an Islamic Caliphate.

The first whispers of ISIS activity in Afghanistan emerged exactly one year ago. Initially, it was no more than media-driven hearsay, rather than any actual ground presence; ISIS in Afghanistan was roundly dismissed as a ’virtual reality’ organisation.

Even as the first quarter of 2015 passed, the ISIS presence was a ’will-they, won’t-they’ discussion, with analysts suggesting the group was merely a band of ex-Taliban militants opportunistically rebranding themselves in the hope of coat-tailing on the symbolic capital of the official network in Syria and Iraq.

http://mondediplo.com/blogs/we-got-isis-wrong-in-syria-let-s-get-it-right-in

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1. Taliban threaten second Afghan provincial capital as insurgency spreads

Fighting intensified around the Afghan city of Ghazni on Monday, as Taliban militants threatened to seize a second provincial capital after briefly occupying Kunduz in the north last month.

The clashes around Ghazni, some 130 km (80 miles) southwest of Kabul, underlined the worsening security situation across Afghanistan, where national soldiers and police are struggling to cope now the bulk of foreign forces have withdrawn.

Monday's violence followed days of sporadic fighting near Ghazni, and prompted most shops, schools and universities there to close.

Many residents attempted to flee to the capital Kabul or nearby districts, adding to a growing number of internally displaced people within Afghanistan.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/12/us-afghanistan-fighting-idUSKCN0S618L20151012

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2. After Fall Of Kunduz, Russia Tries To Shore Up Defenses In Central Asia

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While the Taliban's goals still appear limited to Afghanistan's borders, their growing strength in the region has worried Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, which lie just over Afghanistan's northern border. And Russia, in spite of already being militarily engaged on multiple fronts, is trying to increase its engagement in Central Asia, as well.

First, Russia announced that it would bolster its military base in Tajikistan with a new air group and additional Mi-24P attack and Mi-8 MTV transport helicopters. (This announcement, incidentally, let us learn a little more about the murky situation around the Ayni air force base outside the capital of Dushanbe. Russia has reportedly been trying to gain control of the base, but this week the Tajikistan's Ministry of Defense issued a statement clarifying that they owned the base and were merely allowing Russia to use it.)

Secondly, Russia said it was looking to sell Mi-35 attack helicopters to Afghanistan as part of ongoing security cooperation with Kabul. "Russia is already providing some assistance to the government forces of Afghanistan in strengthening their combat capability. I mean, first of all, the training of Afghan officers in our military academies. This process has not been stopped," said Zamir Kabulov, the Kremlin's special envoy for Afghanistan. "Not so long ago, a large batch of small arms and ammunition was supplied through the Russian Interior Ministry. And, looking ahead, I would say that Afghanistan will get additional assistance from the same source, in accordance with Russian president’s instructions... We hope to sign in October a contract with the Afghan side of the commercial supply of several Mi-35 attack helicopters."
Afghan side of the commercial supply of several Mi-35 attack helicopters."

Third, Abdul Rashid Dostum visited Moscow and met with officials including Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu. He was there in his official capacity as Afghanistan's vice president to discuss Russian military assistance, but Dostum also has been at the center of discussions by Russian and Uzbek officials about creating "buffer states" in northern Afghanistan to blunt the Taliban's possible influence on Central Asia and Russia. Was that on the table again? (Another interesting detail: Dostum, in his account of the meeting, referred to cooperation with Kazakhstan's Ministry of Defense and embassy in Kabul vis-a-vis repairs to helicopters and other military equipment.)
Third, Abdul Rashid Dostum visited Moscow and met with officials including Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu. He was there in his official capacity as Afghanistan's vice president to discuss Russian military assistance, but Dostum also has been at the center of discussions by Russian and Uzbek officials about creating "buffer states" in northern Afghanistan to blunt the Taliban's possible influence on Central Asia and Russia. Was that on the table again? (Another interesting detail: Dostum, in his account of the meeting, referred to cooperation with Kazakhstan's Ministry of Defense and embassy in Kabul vis-a-vis repairs to helicopters and other military equipment.)

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/75486