Saudi targets Russia in battle for European oil market

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LONDON, 1 days ago
From global majors such as Shell and Total to more modest Polish energy firms, oil refiners in Europe are cutting their longstanding use of Russian crude in favour of Saudi Arabian grades as the world's top exporters fight for market share.

Russia has for years been muscling in on Asian markets where Saudi Arabia was once the unchallenged dominant supplier. But now Riyadh is retaliating in Moscow's backyard of Europe with aggressive price discounting.

This has nothing to do with Western sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine, which apply to energy industry equipment but not to oil or gas itself. Instead it is a commercial battle for customers as both exporters ramp up their output despite weak world oil prices.

This is likely to complicate further a dialogue between Moscow and the Opec exporters' group on tackling the global oil glut, with joint production cuts already looking elusive.

http://www.tradearabia.com/news/OGN_292462.html

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1. Bahrain FM: Saudi-led coalition saved Yemen from civil war

London, Asharq Al-Awsat—The Saudi-led military action against the Houthis has averted a civil war, one that would have changed the demographics of not only Yemen but the entire region, Bahrain’s foreign minister has told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Had it not been for the intervention of Saudi Arabia under the leadership of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman Bin Abdulaziz at a critical moment in history, the shape of the region would have changed for the worse for decades to come,” Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa said in an exclusive interview with Asharq Al-Awsat.

“If Operation Decisive Storm had not come on time, the situation would have been more dangerous and [the insurgents] would have wrested full control of Yemen which means a non-stop civil war,” Sheikh Khalid said, using the codename of the military campaign that Saudi Arabia and nine other Arab states launched in late March in a bid to reinstate the internationally recognized President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi.

Yemen descended into chaos when an alliance of northern Shi’ites, known as Houthis, and supporters of ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh took over large parts of Yemen, including the capital, Sana’a, in September of 2014, prompting Hadi to flee to the southern city of Aden and then to Saudi Arabia.

http://english.aawsat.com/2015/10/article55345411/bahrain-fm-saudi-led-coalition-saved-yemen-from-civil-war

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2. Arab coalition sends weapons convoy ahead of Jawf offensive

Al Mukalla, Yemen: An Arab coalition battling Iran-backed Al Houthi militants in Yemen have dispatched more troops in the province of Marib in central Yemen ahead of a looming offensive to liberate the neighbouring province of Jawf, a local government official told Gulf News on Friday.

A large convoy of trucks carrying sophisticated weapons were seen by residents entering the city from Saudi Arabia.

“The convoy includes thermal rockets, air defense systems and Katyusha rockets coming from Qatar via Saudi Arabia,” the official said on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to brief reporters.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE have sent a substantial number of troops and sophisticated arms to Marib province with their eye on liberating territory captured by Al Houthis and working their way to the capital, Sana’a, where they still maintain control.

http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/yemen/arab-coalition-sends-weapons-convoy-ahead-of-jawf-offensive-1.1601635

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3. Saudis desperate as they are not winning the war in Yemen

Speaking of messes.

While Saudi Arabia seems to be serious about ‘co-operating’ with Russia in ‘eliminating’ Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq, the real motive behind this co-operation and increased engagement with Moscow may be the continuing need to stabilize the oil market.

This does not, however, mean Saudi Arabia is not trying to influence Russia with regard to the latter’s military campaign in Syria. While it could not prevent the Russians from engaging militarily in Syria, Riyadh is certainly trying to influence the outcome by re-engaging with the Russians and by reaching, what the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called, mutual “understanding.”

But had Saudi Arabia been so serious about elimination of IS and other terrorist networks, it could not have supported IS and Al-Qaeda in Yemen against Houthis, nor designed the policy of supporting proxy groups in Yemen after the catastrophic failure of this very policy in Syria. As it stands, they do not seem to have learnt any lesson from their failure there.

Reports say IS units are gaining strength in Yemen due to the financial and military support being provided by Saudi Arabia. And since their official “We have arrived” announcement in April 2015, IS have carried out a number of operations in the country.

http://atimes.com/2015/10/saudis-desperate-as-they-are-not-winning-the-war-in-yemen/

[KoKo]

4. ...!

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5. I think they do have a problem.

They have three choices:

1. On into the Houthi homelands, greatly escalating the costs
2. Stop and occupy and get bled to death, or
3. Retreat and watch it descend into warlordism and jihadi staging area

[KoKo]

9. Prince Salman...is the decider these days. Some interesting posts about the Saudi Kingdom

lately, posted here. Cracks occuring...in what they might be seeking going forward.

I can't imagine the cold hearted, cruelty of that Regime that so few of them see what they have helped fund and caused. I know the Princes are all Wealth and sport an Attitude of Entitlement that invites them into the Best Mansions around the World and into the USA Elections....but, still. They are entering a time when maybe their insulation is having Frays in the Seams of their "Entitlement" given what's swirling around them and how they've mismanaged things?

IOWD's they "Got to Big for their "Entitlement Britches" and are feeling some pain as criticism starts to get through their "Paid For Barriers?"

But, then...they've been successful for so long....it may take awhile before they feel the pain of the rest of the ME... Wonder how they will deal when that Pain comes to their own Doorstep and what that will mean in the years going forward.

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12. Damn if I know, they are pretty opaque.

My general impression is of lurching around belligerently, but that's just hints and smidgens.

[KoKo]

17. BTW: Remember early last Summer, I think, when you warned about Saudi Action in Yemen?

I remember the maps and such posted and you cautioning that the Saudi's needed to be careful because of the Shia Population close to Yemen border and the problems the Saudi's had the last time they engaged with Yemen. At that point in time the Houthi's were managing to hold their own even managing to take Aden.

Now we have IS factored in and it has become even more complicated.

This part of the article reminded me of your warning back then:

The Saudis, at the moment, are facing threat not from the Houthis alone. The intensity of this threat multiplies when the local Shia factor is taken into consideration. Were Saudi Arabia’s Shia population to join the Houthis against their mutual oppressor, the Saudis might find themselves encircled from within and without. Such an alliance between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia’s local Shia population will also provide an additional impetus to IS, which thrives on its sectarian appeal, to increase its presence in Yemen and multiply its attacks too.

The Saudis are not winning the war and it is making them desperate. Marred by their inability to launch ground operations and win battles, they have reached the breaking point. In their desperation to avoid another defeat after Syria, not only are they willingly — directly and indirectly — supporting almost every group that is ready to counter the Houthis, but also drawing other countries’ armies into the war zone.

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19. Yep, that's it.

They are creating more regions of chaos along their southern borders, to go with those up North. And those jihadis just love chaos. And yes they are drawing in foreign troops from their allies, who are getting killed in fratricidal airstrikes.

[KoKo]

18. Also...Remember the Summit at Camp David last Summer?

(I still wonder what went on at that Summit. Were promises made or did it end on a bad note. Or, perhaps it was a stalemate. And, I wonder about the Young Prince Mohammed bin Salman and how his leadership is viewed inn the Battle Field Ops these days, given his lack of experience. Or, perhaps he's no longer in charge.


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Surprising Saudi Rises as a Prince Among Princes

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — Until about four months ago, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, 29, was just another Saudi royal who dabbled in stocks and real estate.

He grew up overshadowed by three older half brothers who were among the most accomplished princes in the kingdom — the first Arab astronaut; an Oxford-educated political scientist who was once a research fellow at Georgetown and also founded a major investment company; and a highly regarded deputy oil minister.

But that was before their father, King Salman bin Abdulaziz, 79, ascended to the throne. Now Prince Mohammed, the eldest son of the king’s third and most recent wife, is the rising star.

He has swiftly accumulated more power than any prince has ever held, upending a longstanding system of distributing positions around the royal family to help preserve its unity, and he has used his growing influence to take a leading role in Saudi Arabia’s newly assertive stance in the region, including its military intervention in Yemen.

In the four months since his coronation, King Salman has put Prince Mohammed in charge of the state oil monopoly, the public investment company, economic policy and the ministry of defense.
He is the most visible leader of Saudi Arabia’s two-month-old air war in Yemen, and his father has installed him as deputy crown prince, passing over dozens of older princes to put him second in line to the throne. Stunning the kingdom, King Salman removed his younger half brother, Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, 69, as crown prince and replaced him with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, 55, the popular interior minister. Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, Salman’s nephew, has no male heirs of his own, and Prince Mohammed Bin Salman is now next in line.

The sweeping changes have thrust the young prince into power at a time when Saudi Arabia is locked in a series of escalating conflicts aimed at defending its vision of the regional order and holding back its chief rival, Iran. The kingdom is financially sustaining the rulers of Egypt and Jordan and propping up the Sunni monarchy in neighboring Bahrain against a revolt by its Shiite majority. It is also arming rebels in Syria against the Iranian-backed president, fighting in the United States-led air campaign over Iraq and leading its own air assault on an Iranian-backed faction in Yemen. And it is ramping up its military spending even as plunging oil prices and growing domestic expenditures have reduced its financial reserves by $50 billion over the last six months, to less than $700 billion.

More At:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/world/middleeast/surprising-saudi-rises-as-a-prince-among-princes.html?_r=0

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20. Well, comparison to Kim Jong Eun comes to mind.

Third generation scion of one of these family enterprise "countries", new to governance, poorly prepared, insecure, and out to prove who is the boss. The third generation rule:

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2010/04/will-the-three-generation-rule-topple-north-koreas-kims

[KoKo]

21. ...! Indeed..

...But, he has 28,000 U.S. Troops keeping him caged! for Decades!....for NOW at least. One wonders with all hell breaking out everywhere if No. Korea won't be next considering he might be getting an itch. But, then again...the Russians might be available for some help with that, too, if worse comes to worse.

[KoKo]

6. This is kind of an intrusive Off Topic....

I tried to find a place to put it.. but, there's something Charming (in a Weird Way) about this and I didn't want to do a Stand Alone OP about it. I realize there's a "Disinfo aspect" ....but, it was just that it was something Charmingly Different... like being mezmerized by a snake and praying that it's a Green Snake and not a Copper Head? Yet........it's a different view.

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Emperor’s New Clothes

Putin is Defeating More than ISIS in Syria

By F. William Engdahl

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article43150.htm

Russia’s Putin is playing the role ever so elegantly, even gracefully, of the small boy in the Hans Christian Anderson classic fairy tale from 1837, The Emperor’s New Clothes. The boy stands with his mother amid thousands of other villagers in the crowd outside the vain Emperor’s palace balcony, where the disassociated king struts around the balcony naked, thinking he is wearing a magnificent new suit of clothes. The boy shouts, to the embarrassment of all servile citizens who pretend his clothes are magnificent, “Mother, look the Emperor has no clothes!”

What do I mean? In the first four days of precision bombing of select sites in Syria Russian advanced fighter jets firing Kh-29L air-to-surface laser-guided missiles that strike targets with a precision less than two meters, managed to destroy key ISIS command centers, munitions depots and vital infrastructure. According to the Russian Defense Ministry official reports, with photos, Su-34 bombers attacked an ISIS special training camp and munition depot near Al-Tabqa, Ar-Raqqah province,” a critical ISIS outpost captured in August, 2014 after bitter battles. “As a result of explosion of the munition depot, the terrorist training camp was completely destroyed,” the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman stated. Russian Su-25 jets have also attacked training camp of the Islamic State in the Syrian Idlib, destroying a workshop for explosive belt production.

Moscow states its air force has “engaged 3 munition, fuel and armament depots of the illegal armed groups. KAB-500 aviation bombs detonated the munition and armament,” and they used BETAB-500 concrete-piercing bombs to destroy four command posts of the ISIS armed groups. The facilities with terrorists are completely destroyed,” the Moscow spokesman added. Russia’s aviation conducted 20 flights and carried out 10 airstrikes against facilities of the Islamic State (ISIL) terrorist group in the past 24 hours. Then Moscow announced they had also hit key outposts of other terror groups such as the Al Qaeda-franchise, Al Nusra Front.

These are the so-called “moderates” that McCain and the Washington warhawks are weeping over. Washington has been creating what it calls the “New” Syrian Forces (NSF), which they claim is composed of “moderate” terrorists, euphemistically referred to as “rebels.” Imagine how recruitment talks go: CIA recruiter, “Mohammed, are you a moderate Islamist? Why yes, my dear CIA trainer. Please take me, train me and arm me in the fight against the ruthless dictator Assad and against ISIS. I’m on your side. You can trust me…”

In late September it was reported that Major Anas Obaid a.k.a. Abu Zayd, on completing his CIA training in Turkey, defected from the train-and-equip program to join Jabhat al-Nusra (Al Qaeda in Syria) immediately on entering Syria. Incredibly, US officials admit that Washington does not track or exercise command-and-control of its Jihadist proxies once they enter Syria. Abu Zayd’s defection after being trained in advanced warfare techniques by the US, is typical. Other elements of the New Syrian Forces directly handed all their weapons to Nusra upon entering Syrian territory at the town of Atareb at the end of September.

These latest “moderate” defections to join Al Qaeda’s Al-Nusra Front affiliate in Syria come less than two weeks after Gen. Lloyd Austin III, head of the US “war against ISIS,” during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Syria, admitted that the US military program that intended produce 5,400 trained fighters a year has so far only resulted in “four or five” who still remain on the ground and active in combat. The rest have all joined ISIS or Al Nusra Front of Al Qaeda, the US-backed “moderate opposition” to ISIL.

What the successful Russian precision airstrikes have done is expose in all its ugly nakedness the Emperor’s New Clothes. For more than one year, the Obama Administration claims it has committed the most awesome airpower on the planet allegedly to destroy ISIS, which has been described as a “ragtag band of militants running around the desert in basketball shoes.”

Much More at........
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article43150.htm

F. William Engdahl is strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

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7. Well I see a lot of Putin-love, which is just the other side of Putin-hate.

And just as unrealistic.

I have read Engdahl for years, he is usually more sober. Putin seems to have that effect on people.

[KoKo]

8. That's exactly what I warned about....

"Green Snake vs Copperhead."

Which is Putin? (I didn't make it clear enough)...Green Snake won't kill you...Copper Head will!

Whatever...I thought it a fun read away from some of the serious. But, as I said....I didn't know where to put it for levity....with maybe a bit of thought provoking weirdness.

How will we know?

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10. Well I read those guys, sometimes they have interesting bits ...

You take things where you find them.

But you can see they are emotionally invested in a narrative, which I want to avoid, and being a bleeding heart liberal it's a slippery slope.

Confirmation bias, it's the same problem with all those un-reproducible health-care studies. It's too easy to find what you went looking for.

[KoKo]

11. Yes...there's that...

I don't disagree.

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13. Here is some Putin-love for you:

Putin’s Bombs and a Call to Arms

Femi Fani-Kayode
The sound and sight of Russian cruise missiles and smart bombs dropping on thousands of ISIL fighters in Syria is a thing of joy. It is like music to my ears. At last someone has cultivated the courage to stop the pampering and to desist from trying to rationalize the evil of ISIS and the forces of terror. I have no doubt that President Vladimir Putin is being used by God to deliver the world from the greatest evil that we have witnessed since Hitler’s fascism. The Russians are doing a great work in Syria.

They confronted and crushed the evil of terrorism in Chechnya and now they are doing it in the Middle East. Mr. Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi and his ISIL fighters deserve no mercy. They deserve even worse than they are getting. We must encourage the Russians to keep the bombs flying and to send the demons to hell where they belong.

This ought to be a lesson to the world and to President Obama. You don’t encourage and tolerate evil on the alter of political expediency and neither should you support or covertly fund terrorists. More importantly whether the west wishes to accept it or not there is a new kid on the block who refuses to take prisoners and who understands the importance of wiping out the dark forces and bringing in the light.

Those that believe that terrorists should be treated lightly, should be granted amnesty, should be negotiated with or should be used for a greater purpose have failed to grasp the importance of the following counsel: when the rubbish begins to stink you must throw it out. When slaves begin to overestimate their own importance and relevance you must cut off their balls.

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/putin-s-bombs-and-a-call-to-arms/222997/

[KoKo]

15. OMG!

Those that believe that terrorists should be treated lightly, should be granted amnesty, should be negotiated with or should be used for a greater purpose have failed to grasp the importance of the following counsel: when the rubbish begins to stink you must throw it out. When slaves begin to overestimate their own importance and relevance you must cut off their balls.


When dogs seek to rule in the land of men you must shoot them in the head. When a chicken starts to believe that it is an eagle you must cut off its beak. When the witch begins to afflict humanity you must burn her at the stake. When demons begin to call themselves angels you must send them back to hell.


When psychopaths and sociopaths rule the land you must kill them all and ensure that there is no trace of their existence. Clearly Putin has imbued this philosophy and this set of principles very well. And it serves our collective purpose. Four years ago I advocated the Putin approach to confronting Boko Haram in Nigeria. In a series of essays I argued that we must wipe them out and if necessary blow up the communities and towns that covertly give them support.

Femi Fani-Kayode
David Oluwafemi Adewunmi Abdulateef Fani-Kayode is a Nigerian politician, essayist, poet and lawyer. He was a member of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party. He was with the opposition's All Progressive Congress until June 2014 when he returned to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party. Although his family lineage originates from Osun, he was born in Lagos, Nigeria, on 16 October 1960 to Chief Victor Babaremilekun Adetokunboh Fani-Kayode and to Chief Adia Adunni Fani-Kayode. He is an Ile-Ife chieftain of Yoruba descent.

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14. Puitn is no green snake, he will kill you. Mary Poppins he is not.

Last edited Sat Oct 17, 2015, 09:01 AM - Edit history (1)

He is very controlled is what he is. He has a great poker face. You see what he wants you to see. You know what he wants you to know. And that little smirk.

He is a short man in a macho culture who came up through the KGB, fooled the Neocons into thinking he was their boy, has cleaned their clocks for them at least three times (Georgia, Ukraine, Syria), and very successfully rebuilt his nation in the process. He's no dummy. You disrespect him at your peril.

The danger for him is over-reaching, letting it all go to his head. Like Erdogan. This plunge into Syria has that potential, "Putin of Syria", "Putin the Shi'ite", etc. He could get attached to the applause and not quit when he should. I think Iran and Assad will eventually bog down, they are fighing a very sophisticated guerilla resistance, with plenty of outside support, and will soon be off of their own home turf, the question is what does Putin do then?

But his record doesn't suggest that. His record is that string of little "blocking republics" I mentioned across the Caucasus, the former Soviet periphery, and now Syria. He is not looking for new territory, yet anyway, he is hanging onto old possessions, and working on his infrastructure and international alliances and relationships. So he is a "realist", so far.

[KoKo]

16. ...!