The cost of antagonizing Russia is adding up

[bemildred]

Following angry exchanges over the incident, the Russians have implemented a number of economic sanctions that are likely to have an impact on the Turkish economy. From tourism to fruit and vegetable producers, from textiles to automotive parts, the economic sanctions will hurt. Estimates are that Turkey will lose at least $10 billion at the economic level. However, the real impact of the current tension between Ankara and Moscow can be seen in the deterioration of Turkey's security environment.

From the harassment of Turkish vessels in the Black Sea to skirmishes on the Azerbaijani-Armenian cease-fire line in Karabakh, Ankara has more trouble on its security agenda. Of course, the most direct and imminent impact will be seen in Syria, where Russian air strikes have been effective in suppressing the dynamism of the Syrian opposition, especially in northern Syria. Following the assassination of Jaish al-Islam leader Zahran Alloush in an airstrike, the recent killing of Ahrar al-Sham leader Abu Rateb al-Homsi indicates that the opposition leadership is continuing to suffer heavy losses after the Russian intervention in the Syrian theater. The killing of Homsi came just weeks after Alloush was killed in an air strike claimed by the Syrian government and follows a string of deaths among local rebel leaders and imams in central Syrian provinces in recent months.

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It is now clear that shooting down the SU-24 on Nov. 24 precipitated much more grave consequences than Ankara had predicted. The real test, of course, is what will happen to Russian gas exports to Turkey. Currently, few believe that Moscow would play with that card, but the region and especially Syria is so volatile that it is difficult to foresee what might happen in the coming months. A recent research study on the Russian media indicated that Turkey had replaced the enemy image of Ukraine and NATO. The content analysis result is clearly an outcome of the deliberate Russian policy to demonize Turkey but its impact may have a life of its own. Wisdom dictates de-escalation but given the personalities involved, it is difficult to foresee how that might happen. Needless to add, the US, NATO and the EU have been the primary beneficiaries of the spat between the two countries. In other words, some sustaining of the tension works in favor of Turkey's Western allies. It is safe to predict that it is going to be a tough winter.

http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/suat-kiniklioglu/the-cost-of-antagonizing-russia-is-adding-up_408933.html

[geek tragedy]

1. They deserve each other nt

[KoKo]

2. "It is safe to predict that it is going to be a tough winter."

Yes...it would seem so.

Needless to add, the US, NATO and the EU have been the primary beneficiaries of the spat between the two countries. In other words, some sustaining of the tension works in favor of Turkey's Western allies. It is safe to predict that it is going to be a tough winter.

[bemildred]

3. +1.

Short term and short sighted, expediency all the way.

On the bright side, the war in Ukraine has not cranked up again. Yet anyway.