The Russian bombardment of Aleppo has prompted calls for the United States to dramatically alter its approach to the Syrian conflict. Washington is currently losing its clandestine war against Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Russian intervention has altered the dynamics on the battlefield, largely because its air force has shown no remorse over the mass killing of innocent civilians. Moscow is committed to a Vietnam-style aerial campaign in support of Assad, despite possessing the capability to strike targets with precision. The Russian Air Force has defied expectations and continues to maintain a high sortie rate as a result of its very lax rules of engagement and the use of Russia-based strategic aircraft to augment its assets in theater.
To address recent Russian advances in north Aleppo, the United States is pushing for a ceasefire, with quiet support from Turkey and Arab countries. Recently, the United States finalized an agreement with Russia on the terms for a “cessation of hostilities,” a pause designed to allow the provision of humanitarian aid to besieged areas and aid with the ongoing political efforts to negotiate an end to the Syrian civil conflict. The agreement allows for the continued targeting of anti-Assad groups the United Nations has listed as terrorists. This carve-out will allow for continued American strikes on the Islamic State and continued Russian efforts to target Jabhat al Nusra, Syria’s al Qaeda affiliate. The problem is that Russia has used Nusra’s presence in anti-Assad areas to justify their heavy-handed aerial campaign. Areas of rebel control are not always clearly delineated from each other, a fact that gives Russia an easy excuse to target a wider range of actors. Russia’s campaign has proved effective in helping to change the dynamics of the battlefield in favor of the Assad regime, largely at the expense of the anti-Assad opposition.
It remains to be seen how this agreement plays out, but already, analysts and policymakers are asking: What happens if the agreement fails? And what leverage, if any, does the United States have to force a political transition once the agreement presumably breaks down?
http://warontherocks.com/2016/03/the-promise-and-peril-of-changing-u-s-strategy-in-syria/?singlepage=1
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