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Russia to withdraw forces from SyriaBy Michael Pearson, CNN
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/14/world/russia-syria-withdrawal/index.html
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Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Monday that he has ordered Russian forces to begin withdrawing from Syria, saying they have achieved their goals in the country.
The pullback will begin Tuesday, the state-run Sputnik news agency reported.
"I think that the task that was assigned to the Ministry of Defense and the armed forces as a whole has achieved its goal, and so I order the defense minister to start tomorrow withdrawing the main part of our military factions from the Syrian Arab Republic," Putin said.
Russia began airstrikes in September in support of the Syrian government in a civil war that is now nearly 5 years old.
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bemildred
(90,061 posts)At a smoke-filled cafe in downtown Damascus, there was more hope than concern over Russia’s decision to reduce its military presence in Syria.
Art and law student Karam Abdel-Rahman saw it as a sign the five-year Syrian conflict may finally be ending after leaving at least 270,000 people dead.
"If the mission of the Russians had failed, they wouldn’t have announced their intention to leave so openly," said Abdel-Rahman, 20, above the rattle of backgammon dice and the gurgle of water in shisha pipes. "They would’ve slunk out without telling anyone."
Vladimir Putin had been hailed by many Syrians in Damascus and other parts of the country controlled by President Bashar al-Assad as their savior from the onslaught of extremist Islamic State militants. The Russian leader’s surprise partial retreat comes more than five months after his military intervened ostensibly to combat terrorists, though in reality it turned the tide of the war by helping Assad’s army make advances against his opponents.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-15/putin-s-retreat-brings-hope-not-fear-in-smoky-damascus-cafe
bemildred
(90,061 posts)The first Russian aircraft have already begun to leave Syria following Vladimir Putin’s troop withdrawal announcement. The ceasefire appears to be holding and parties are committed to fresh peace talks in Geneva. But will this development mean anything for the flow of refugees out of the war-torn country? It would be premature to make any assumptions about an early easing of the crisis, given the sheer number of people fleeing the conflict.
When the revolt against the Assad regime started five years ago, it seemed it was another phase in the Arab Spring that was sweeping the region. Little did anyone realise that it would lead to the largest cross-border displacement of a single population in decades.
This at a time when displacement around the globe generally was escalating. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees' resources are stretched – only 2-3% of its budget comes from UN central funds – and it cannot put other crises on the “back burner” while it deals with the Syrian displacement.
The conflict in Syria has challenged Europe in terms of its internal freedom of movement, its core values and, most fundamentally, its adherence to international human rights standards.
http://theconversation.com/refugee-crisis-russian-withdrawal-from-syria-wont-let-europe-off-the-hook-56101
bemildred
(90,061 posts)By NEIL MacFARQUHARMARCH 15, 2016
MOSCOW — President Vladimir V. Putin’s typically theatrical order to withdraw the bulk of Russian forces from Syria, a process that the Defense Ministry said it began on Tuesday, seemingly caught Washington, Damascus and everybody in between off guard — just the way the Russian leader likes it.
By all accounts, Mr. Putin delights at creating surprises, reinforcing Russia’s newfound image as a sovereign, global heavyweight and keeping him at the center of world events.
In the case of Syria, the sudden, partial withdrawal more than five months after an equally surprising intervention allows Mr. Putin to claim a list of achievements without a significant cost to Russia in blood or rubles.
If the roughly 4,000 Russian troops centered on a contingent of about 50 combat aircraft remained in Syria, Mr. Putin risked becoming just another proxy force fighting for the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad. But Mr. Putin wanted to make his mark by forging a solution in Syria, rather than lingering long enough to validate President Obama’s contention that Moscow had jumped headfirst into a quagmire.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/world/europe/vladimir-putin-russia-syria.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Russian Deputy Defense Minister Nikolai Pankov opened a square dedicated to Russian-Syrian friendship at Hmeimim airbase in Syria Tuesday.
HMEIMIM (Sputnik) — The opening of the square was one of the festive events to mark the completion of the Russian aerial campaign in Syria.
On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the withdrawal of the main part of the country's air forces in Syria, starting from Tuesday, as the objectives of its over five-month operation against terrorist groups in the country had broadly been reached.
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160315/1036328055/syria-russia-eternal-friendship.html
bemildred
(90,061 posts)This week marks the fifth anniversary of the start of the Syrian war, a conflict that began as a peaceful revolt but gradually devolved into horrible bloodshed. As with any anniversary, there will be an accounting of sorts Tuesday - an attempt to ascertain what has actually happened in half a decade of conflict and chaos.
That accounting can be a frustrating experience, however, because a key part of the information is simply not there. Five years into the brutal Syrian war, the exact death toll of the conflict is unclear. At best, all we have are estimates.
Perhaps the most widely cited of those estimates come from the United Nations, which last summer suggested that more than 250,000 people had been left dead by the war. However, the convoluted backstory behind the U.N. estimate is indicative of how difficult a task counting the dead is. Initially, the U.N. had semi-regularly offered estimates for the death toll in Syria until July 2013, when it abruptly stopped.
At the start of 2014, Rupert Colville, a spokesman for the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCR) who had been releasing the numbers, told reporters that the organization could not offer a reliable figure for the death toll, and that due to doubts about the accuracy of the information they were presenting, the U.N. would not release new death tolls. However, in August 2013, the U.N. apparently reversed that decision, and released a new estimate of 191,369 - a figure that Colville cautioned was "indicative" rather than "gospel truth."
http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/exact-numbers-unclear-but-death-toll-absolutely-staggering-in-syrian-war-1.399304
Damn.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)UNITED NATIONS - UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Tuesday that Syria's descent into war could have been avoided if regional powers had not used the conflict as a battlefield to settle scores.
In a statement marking five years since the start of the war, Ban warned that if peace talks fail, "the consequences for the Syrian people and the world are too frightening to contemplate."
The conflict in Syria began as street protests calling for political change that were met with repression, but the destruction that engulfed Syria "was not inevitable," Ban said.
The Syrian government could have responded peacefully to calls for change but regional powers are also to blame for fueling the war, he said.
"Regional and international actors could have united to help Syria stabilise rather than use it as a battlefield for regional rivalries and geo-strategic competition," he said.
http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=75793
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Vladimir Putin is like a man who beats his wife, the Foreign Secretary has said as he urged people not to give the Russian leader praise for withdrawing from Syria.
Philip Hammond said that the West should not give Russia "any credit" for withdrawing from Syria, highlighting the fact it has bombed hospitals and schools.
He said in the Commons: "Somebody goes in to another country, starts bombing civilian populations, destroying hospitals and schools.
"If they decide they have done enough, let's not give them too much praise. It's a bit like 'did he stop beating his wife'.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/12194795/Vladimir-Putin-is-like-a-man-who-beats-his-wife-Philip-Hammond-says.html
bemildred
(90,061 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)The Syrian opposition said on Tuesday Russian President Vladimir Putin's move to draw down his forces in the country could pave the way for an end to five years of fighting, although Moscow had not informed them of the decision.
Spokesman Salim al-Muslat told reporters that the Russian withdrawal could also help bring about an end to Syrian President Bashar al Assad's "dictatorship and his crimes".
Russia blindsided world powers on Monday by announcing that "the main part" of its forces in Syria would start to withdraw. It was unclear what the withdrawal would mean for the outcome of the war or the future of Assad, who has regained ground from rebels with the help of heavy Russian air strikes.
U.S.-Russian cooperation had already prompted a lull in the war via a "cessation of hostilities agreement" that led to a sharp decline in fighting between rebels and the government in western Syria.
http://www.reuters.com/article/mideast-crisis-syria-opposition-update-idUSL5N16N3UD?rpc=401
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Dubai: Syria’s opposition is “not against” direct talks with the country’s government, RIA news agency quoted Salim Al Muslat, spokesman for the main Syrian opposition alliance in Geneva, as saying on Tuesday.
“We are not against the beginning of direct talks,” RIA quoted Al Muslat, who is chief spokesman for the Saudi-backed High Negotiations Committee, as saying.
The group also said that Russia’s withdrawal of forces from the country will help peace talks in Geneva.
The pullout ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin is a positive step which will help to move forward the negotiations, Al Muslet told reporters in Geneva on Tuesday. Syria’s opposition wants to see actions on the ground supporting Putin’s announcement, he said.
http://gulfnews.com/news/mena/syria/syria-opposition-not-opposed-to-direct-talks-1.1691019
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Hussam Abu Saad, a member of the FSA Southern Front’s General Command
Q: How do rebels around you view Russia’s decision? Do they consider it a victory?
Russia's decision to withdraw came as a surprise, just like its decision to intervene. I'll say that its withdrawal is a victory surrounded by uncertainty, and surrounded by a lack of faith that they will implement, fully, the troop withdrawal declarations.
It could be that the statements carry multiple meanings, and are intended to return the regime to a state of obedience to the Russians after [Syrian Foreign Minister] al-Muallem's provocative statements deviated from the political path that Russia imposed on it.
[Ed.: Waleed al-Muallem said at a Saturday press conference in Damascus that “we will not engage in dialogue with anyone who talks about the presidency. Bashar al-Assad is a red line, and belongs to the Syrian people.”]
All told, this is the positive side that rebels see in the Russians' withdrawal, which will help ensure the continuation of the Geneva talks.
Hussam Abu Saad, a member of the FSA Southern Front’s General Command
Q: How do rebels around you view Russia’s decision? Do they consider it a victory?
Russia's decision to withdraw came as a surprise, just like its decision to intervene. I'll say that its withdrawal is a victory surrounded by uncertainty, and surrounded by a lack of faith that they will implement, fully, the troop withdrawal declarations.
It could be that the statements carry multiple meanings, and are intended to return the regime to a state of obedience to the Russians after [Syrian Foreign Minister] al-Muallem's provocative statements deviated from the political path that Russia imposed on it.
[Ed.: Waleed al-Muallem said at a Saturday press conference in Damascus that “we will not engage in dialogue with anyone who talks about the presidency. Bashar al-Assad is a red line, and belongs to the Syrian people.”]
All told, this is the positive side that rebels see in the Russians' withdrawal, which will help ensure the continuation of the Geneva talks.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Beijing, Mar 15 (Prensa Latina) China today stated as positive the start of the Russian military''s withdrawal from Syria, which they believe will aid the progress of the peace dialogue.
The first group of Russian fighter jets deployed in Syrian left for Russia this morning following orders of the president, Vladimir Putin.
He stated that the start of Russian withdrawal comes after the recent launch of a ceasefire agreement, which is generally being respected, and the resumption of talks between the government and the opposition in Geneva.
Before the fifth anniversary of the Syrian crisis, the Chinese ambassador to Syria, Wang Kejian urged the parties involved to prioritize national interests and to start the process, supported by the United Nations (UN) and directed by the Syrians, to solve the conflict by political means.
http://www.plenglish.com//index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4697441&Itemid=1
bemildred
(90,061 posts)On March 14, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov talked about how Russian-Iranian relations had reached a “new level,” and how Moscow has “been persistently developing friendly relations with Iran.” Moscow and Tehran have, as is well known, been working together to support the Assad regime in Syria, and Tehran is reportedly buying more arms from Russia. More fundamentally, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei both see America and the West as seeking to undermine them through support for democratization, and thus both prefer to keep Washington at a distance.
Yet despite this shared antipathy toward the U.S. and other common interests, Russian-Iranian relations have not only been troubled in the past but continue to be so now. Just in the last three months, there have been several such differences.
In December 2015, there were complaints in the Russian press about how, after Moscow’s intervention in Syria got underway, Iran began drawing down its own military presence in Syria. Tehran was seen as essentially shifting the burden of supporting Assad from its own shoulders onto Moscow’s. Further, Tehran was seen as ready, willing, and able to take advantage of the downturn in Russia-Turkey relations-following the November 2015 Turkish downing of a Russian military aircraft-to increase Iranian petroleum sales to Ankara.
The prospect of Iranian-Turkish cooperation proceeding despite Russian-Turkish hostility was reiterated when Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu met with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in Tehran in early March. They discussed expanding their economic ties at a time when Moscow has sought to punish Turkey for the shootdown by cutting back on Russian-Turkish trade. Both Iranian and Turkish leaders emphasized the importance of respect for territorial integrity-something, of course, that Ankara claims that Russian warplanes flying in its airspace have violated.
http://www.payvand.com/news/16/mar/1068.html
bemildred
(90,061 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)The idea that Vladimir Putin may prove to be a "force for good" or even to have shown strategic wisdom in the Middle East will be as pleasant for his critics in the West as swallowing a thumb tack.
But now may be the time the White House and Whitehall should be bracing to guzzle down the contents of their stationery drawers.
For now, it appears, Mr Putin has played a blinder.
His bombers have killed hundreds of civilians. Missiles have rained down on schools, hospitals, clinics, homes and farms with profligate abandon. Cluster bombs and unguided missiles have torn into Syria?s rebels while Russian Spetsnaz commandos have driven the Damascus army to victory on the ground.
http://www.lbc.co.uk/putin-has-played-a-blinder-over-syria-126905
bemildred
(90,061 posts)President Vladimir Putin’s unexpected announcement that Russian troops would pull back from Syria shouldn’t be taken at face value. He’s made similar announcements in the past to show Western negotiating partners how constructive he can be. He always has a hidden agenda.
Putin’s official explanation of the supposed withdrawal, set to start Tuesday, is that he considers “the tasks set for the Defense Ministry mainly carried out.” The Russian military “has allowed Syrian troops and the patriotic forces of Syria to achieve a radical breakthrough in the fight against international terrorism and gain initiative on practically every front.”
He’s not wrong about the latter. Emboldened and aided by Russian air strikes against the regime’s opponents, President Bashar al-Assad’s forces have been gaining ground since the start of this year. Yet they haven’t captured the all-important city of Aleppo or dealt any spectacular defeats to any of the bigger insurgent groups, including the Islamic State. “Radical breakthrough” is an exaggeration.
Putin, however, teased the more likely purpose of his announcement.
http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/latest-columns/20160315-leonid-bershidsky-dont-trust-putins-troop-pullback-from-syria.ece
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Russian President Vladimir Putin had his “mission accomplished” moment Monday, announcing that Russia would withdraw its main forces from Syria after they turned the tide in President Bashar al-Assad’s struggle against Syrian rebels.
The announcement partly explains why Putin has been supporting a cease-fire and truce talks over the last month: His goal is to consolidate the gains he and Assad made together. From a purely cynical perspective, the operation has been a fairly impressive success for Putin: Bomb intensely to create a humanitarian crisis while your troops advance, then negotiate peace to look like a good guy while assuring that the other side can’t fight back without violating the truce. And accomplish all this while strengthening your bargaining position vis-à-vis the U.S. and Europe.
But the announcement also makes it explicit that Putin has no interest in giving Assad the support he’d need to take on the forces of the Islamic State. By declaring victory before Assad has really confronted the Sunni militant group, Putin is saying that Russia is perfectly willing for Islamic State to remain in existence indefinitely.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-15/russia-s-withdrawal-from-syria-is-islamic-state-s-win
applegrove
(118,499 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)applegrove
(118,499 posts)time. They seem to be saying the peace is sort of holding in Syria. Vibes to them.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Last edited Tue Mar 15, 2016, 03:45 PM - Edit history (1)
I think progress is being made. They seem to be talking in Yemen too.
And it's a critical point, if Russia and Assad push ahead, it gets existential for the opposition, and then the talks will fail, and everything will escalate. So Putin is defending the coast, and the borders of Syria, the rest they can bicker over.
But with Russia saying "enough" and Iran making nice noises, they are trying to cajole the Saudis into making nice too, which I think Putin & Iran do want, if the Sauds don't get snotty about it, because of the oil collapse. I think he is out to get Erdogan, but the Sauds he'd like to keep standing, because the post-Saudi situation is not likely to be an improvement.
It will also take heat off Kerry and Obama. The pundits can go back to worrying about what Putin is up to, instead of complaining because Obama won't repeat all their mistakes in hopes they might work this time.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)She thinks that while it shouldn't be seen as Russia breaking with the regime, the fact that there was no joined press conference indicates to her that it wasn't a long agreed on thing and that Russian dashed recently ever more frequently voiced dreams by Assad that he wouldn't have to pay any political price for the military intervention.
Russia made the fighting lines political lines and hence also made the rebels more real negotiation partners, which also allows USA to put more direct pressure on them to negotiate, because in the past the "Njet" of the rebels was at least as strong as the one from the regime.
She ties it in with the Obama Atlantic interview where he puts KSA into the category of "hanger on". She says Turkey finds it in a similar position and that it's dawning on Turkey that for all their differences, USA and Russia are actually pulling into the same direction/are in agreement that they want a political solution. She thinks that the reason that is the case is because for Obama this would be the end of a problematic situation that he got criticized for a lot. While for Putin Obama's impending exit from office could mean Russia losing its chance to get out of the Syrian quagmire, after all, who knows that their relationship will be with the new president and what it will lead to? A longterm engagement in Syria wouldn't be popular in Russia and the rubel rose immediately after the withdrawal was announced.
"Putin wants to reap the rewards of his Syria intervention and Assad realizes what he could have known earlier: that's it's not just about him. Putin, who is not abandoning his plan for a united front against the islamic state, is not ready to worsen his relationship with the gulf states "into free fall" just for him. Recently Moscow and Riad have been working together to stabilize the oil prize."
Saudi Arabia might feel satisfied that Iran's reaction to the withdrawal is not quite as enthusiastic. The same question could also be asked to the other external forces, like Iran and Hezbollah if it isn't time to withdraw. If Iran refuses, this could jeopardize the thawing relationship between Iran and Turkey which both Russia and KSA wouldn't mind one bit [because Iran and Turkey disagreeing would be just allright with them, since KSA loathes Iran and Russia loathes Turkey and they don't like their allies playing nice with the one they hate]
TLDR: She thinks that Russia and USA are in quiet agreement, against the wishes of their allies, in that they want a political solution and Russia's withdrawal is part of them pushing for it. Assad is sent a message that he needs to make political concessions. Also larger wheelings and dealings in the relationship between Russia and the gulf states.
Very speculative, but that's close to what I see going on too.
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/4amgrj/gudrun_harrers_take_on_russias_withdrawal_payday/