Russian-Iranian alliance in Syria at crossroads

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Now, the inevitable next step of such a development would be the devolution of local authority to the Syrian factions (government and opposition) in their respective areas of control.

Indeed, there are incipient signs of the politico-military situation moving in such a direction in the absence of a promising peace process as well as the sheer military stalemate.

The recent arrival of British and French special forces could well be in anticipation of such a decentralization process that is likely on the anvil.

Of course, Tehran and Damascus will see this as defacto partition of Syria by the external powers amongst their proxy factions, and will not accept it. Moscow seems to be procrastinating.

http://atimes.com/2016/06/russian-iranian-alliance-in-syria-at-crossroads/

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1. Turkey may soften stance on Assad exit as Kurdish gains force shift

Turkey's determination to prevent an autonomous Kurdish region emerging in northern Syria could see it ease up on demands for President Bashar al-Assad's immediate exit, as it overhauls a foreign policy that has left it more isolated than influential.

Days after taking office last month, new Prime Minister Binali Yildirim - a close ally of President Tayyip Erdogan - said Turkey needed to "increase its friends and decrease its enemies", in what appeared a tacit admission that his predecessor's policies had left the NATO member sidelined.

Under former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Ankara was insistent on Assad's departure as the only way of stabilising Syria, setting it at odds with Assad's ally Russia and distancing it from a U.S.-led coalition more focused on the fight against Islamic State.

Erdogan - who wields ultimate power in Turkey, including over foreign policy - has been one of Assad's fiercest critics but analysts say changing circumstances on the ground could force a softening of his rhetoric.

http://in.reuters.com/article/mideast-crisis-turkey-relations-idINKCN0Z02C0?rpc=401

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2. US Brings Turkey and PKK Back at Negotiating Table

ROJAVA — An informed source from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) revealed on Monday, June 13th, that an agreement was reached between Turkey and Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) with the help of the US mediation three weeks ago over the areas in the west of Euphrates river in Syria.

According to the agreement made between Ankara and PKK, the source confirmed to BasNews that PKK guerrillas must retreat from the Kurdish cities in southeastern Turkey, and the Turkish government, in return, will allow the Syrian Democratic Forces to control the areas in the west of Euphrates river in northern Syria.

The meetings between PKK and Ankara was held under the supervision of the Army Gen. Joseph Votel, Commander of US forces in the Middle East, who visited Kobani and Turkey last month, the source said.

Ankara has also agreed to move the jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, from İmralı Island Prison in the Marmara Sea to another location and place him under house arrest, and resume negotiations with PKK as part of the agreement.

http://www.basnews.com/index.php/en/news/middle-east/281521

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3. In other words, regime change by enforced partition. Chalk up another according to plan.

The immediate blueprint for regional regime changes was the 1996 document for Netanyahu authored by Washington neocons Perle, Wurmser, Feith and - A Clean Break: A New Plan to Secure the Realm - http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article1438.htm

The reigning intellectual architect of ethnic and religious-based breakup of Arab nation-states, particularly secular Baathist regimes across MENA, is Bernard Lewis, the British historian who is credited with coining the term "clash of civilizations" in 1957. He will be 100 at the end of this month. His name is practically unknown to the general public, but he is perhaps the most influential Middle East strategic thinker alive.

Ralph Peters is Lewis-lite. Here is his map of how the region looks after the breakup if Iraq, but Peters missed the forced disintegration of Syria, altogether:

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4. Definitely looking balkanized, not sure it will look like the Neocon fantasy though.

Your point about Syria is well-taken.
Putin looks to be much happier with the outcome than I expect the Neocons intended.
So yeah.

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5. And lots of people are going to be furious:

Ukraine furious over remarks on Russia by U.N. chief Ban

The Kiev government is outraged by remarks made by United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon about the crucial role Russia can play in ending conflicts, and no longer believes he has any moral authority, Ukraine's U.N. envoy said on Thursday.

Ban's prepared speech for the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum said Russia "has a critical role to play ... in addressing other pressing global issues, from ending the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, to safeguarding human rights and controlling the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction."

The delivered version was slightly different. It did not mention Ukraine but said Moscow "has a very important role to play and I really count heavily on the leadership of the Russian Federation."

Ukrainian Ambassador Volodymyr Yelchenko told reporters he was incensed by Ban's remarks which came across as praise of Moscow, which the Kiev government and Western powers accuse of supporting separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-un-idUSKCN0Z22E9