Obama proposes new military partnership with Russia in Syria

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The Obama administration has proposed a new agreement on Syria to the Russian government that would deepen military cooperation between the two countries against some terrorists in exchange for Russia getting the Assad regime to stop bombing U.S.-supported rebels.

The United States transmitted the text of the proposed agreement to the Russian government on Monday after weeks of negotiations and internal Obama administration deliberations, an administration official told me. The crux of the deal is a U.S. promise to join forces with the Russian air force to share targeting and coordinate an expanded bombing campaign against Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria, which is primarily fighting the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Under the proposal, which was personally approved by President Obama and heavily supported by Secretary of State John F. Kerry, the American and Russian militaries would cooperate at an unprecedented level, something the Russians have sought for a long time.

In exchange, the Russians would agree to pressure the Assad regime to stop bombing certain Syrian rebel groups the United States does not consider terrorists. The United States would not give Russia the exact locations of these groups, under the proposal, but would specify geographic zones that would be safe from the Assad regime’s aerial assaults.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/obama-proposes-new-military-partnership-with-russia-in-syria/2016/06/29/8e8b2e2a-3e3f-11e6-80bc-d06711fd2125_story.html

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1. Russia will countenance an Assad exit in Syria, but not yet

Russia will countenance Syrian President Bashar al-Assad leaving office, but only when it is confident a change of leader will not trigger a collapse of the Syrian government, sources familiar with the Kremlin's thinking say.

Getting to that point could take years, and in the meantime Russia is prepared to keep backing Assad, regardless of international pressure to jettison him, those sources said.

Such steadfast support is likely to further complicate already stalled peace talks with Assad's opponents and sour relations with Washington which wants the Syrian leader gone.

"Russia is not going to part company with Assad until two things happen," Sir Tony Brenton, Britain's former ambassador to Russia, told Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKCN0ZG0LO

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2. West cooperating secretly with Damascus against militants: Assad

AMMAN (Reuters) - Syrian President Bashar al Assad said in an interview to be broadcast on Friday that Western countries had sent security officials to help his government covertly in fighting Islamist militants involved in Syria's war.

Assad, in remarks to Australia's SBS News channel that were carried by Syrian state media, said Western states - who are strongly opposed to his rule but also face the threat of Islamist attacks at home - were secretly cooperating with his government in counter-terrorism operations.

"They attack us politically and then they send officials to deal with us under the table, especially the security, including your [the Australian] government," Assad was quoted as saying.

"They don't want to upset the United States. Actually most of the Western officials, they only repeat what the United States want them to say. This is the reality," he said.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/idCAKCN0ZG28G?rpc=401

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3. Brexit Is a Russian Victory

Very strange stuff.

Russia is playing chess with the United States. The United States is playing checkers back. Many in America see Britain’s recent vote to leave the European Union as a rightful release from the yoke of the Brussels regulatory machine. This single-country, one-dimensional view is the equivalent of checkers. Brexit advances Russia’s aim of a divided Europe and is the most recent Russian success in a line that started with its chess moves in Syria. Unless America starts playing chess soon, we may find ourselves in check.

Putin’s goals on the European chess board are to retain popular support at home and to avoid outside interference, so that he and his cronies can line their pockets with Russia’s wealth. His strategies to that end include convincing his own people that the West is out to get them, fragmenting and distracting Europe, dividing the United States and Europe, and causing enough Middle East turmoil to keep the price of oil high.

Bashar al-Assad’s Syria has been a useful pawn, with which Russia has skillfully maneuvered its engagement to achieve all of its aims. It acts knowing that a war-weary America is highly reluctant to aggressively engage in the region again.

At home, Putin sells his support for Assad as an effort to defend against Western domination. By preserving Assad without lessening the threat that the Islamic State poses to the West, Russia has helped spark an exodus of refugees that has overwhelmed Europe, heightening the perceived cost of European integration. Russia’s support for anti-immigrant parties may have contributed to the Brexit passing by a narrow margin. While independence may benefit Britain, the EU without an anglophone voice is less likely to be aligned with America, reducing the likelihood that a unified West would enforce sanctions against Russia. The EU will be preoccupied with negotiating Britain’s departure and addressing other separatist demands within both Britain and the EU, as the continent’s economic future darkens and the migration crisis festers. The resulting turmoil has helped bring the price of oil higher.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/30/brexit-is-a-russian-victory/

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4. Russia-China: Lofty rhetoric, shifty discourse

Beijing knows that Kremlin’s “turn to the East” is only a contingency plan and that Russia’s heart is always with the West. Hence it will be watching closely the incipient signs of rapprochement between Russia and the West

While the rhetoric of Russia-China entente remains couched in lofty words – “friends forever” (Vladimir Putin) – their strategic discourse is becoming nuanced lately.

The Chinese and Russian pundits agree that the raison d’etre of the “comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination” between the two countries rests, quintessentially, on their need to push back at the United States.

In an overview on President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Beijing, a leading voice in Chinese foreign policy debates, Shen Dingli, underscored that “China is a realistic country, and it is aware of the power of leverage… China’s wisdom since ancient times will not be lost in the current era.”

http://atimes.com/2016/07/russia-china-lofty-rhetoric-shifty-discourse/

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5. Putin calls Obama to discuss ‘better coordination’ in Syria

MOSCOW (AP) — The Kremlin says President Vladimir Putin called US President Barack Obama on Wednesday to discuss the ongoing situation in Syria and the need for better “coordination” between the two countries.

Putin called for encouraging moderate Syrian opposition to disengage quickly from the al-Nusra Front, a rebel group linked to al-Qaeda. The Kremlin said the two leaders also reaffirmed their readiness to “build up coordination of Russian and US actions in Syria in the military sphere,” and noted the importance of resuming peace talks.

Putin also informed Obama of the results of ongoing talks concerning the conflict in the South Caucasus region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Russian president said he hosted the negotiations between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents to help stabilize the situation in the conflict zone.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/putin-calls-obama-to-discuss-better-coordination-in-syria/

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6. U.S. jets abandoned Syrian rebels in the desert. Then they lost a battle to ISIS.

American warplanes were diverted from an offensive launched against the Islamic State last week by U.S.-backed rebels in Syria in order to bomb a more enticing target in Iraq, withdrawing air support at a critical moment and contributing to the failure of the rebel operation, according to U.S. officials familiar with the incident.

Aircraft assigned to provide cover for the offensive, launched last Tuesday to capture the eastern Syrian town of Bukamal, were ordered in the middle of the operation to leave the area and head instead to the outskirts of Fallujah, in neighboring Iraq, the officials say.

A large convoy of Islamic State fighters had been seen trying to escape across the desert after the city was recaptured by the Iraqi army, and U.S. commanders decided that the convoy represented a “strategic target,” according to U.S. military spokesman Col. Chris Garver.

The convoy was destroyed by the U.S. and British planes along with gunships and aircraft from the Iraqi air force, which began striking the long line of Islamic State vehicles before the U.S. Air Force arrived. Hundreds of Islamic State fighters were killed and scores of their vehicles were destroyed in one of the more spectacular single assaults against the militants in the nearly two-year-old war against them.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2016/07/06/u-s-jets-abandoned-syrian-rebels-in-the-desert-then-they-lost-a-battle-to-isis/

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7. Putin, Obama discuss situations in Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria, Ukraine

MOSCOW, July 6 (Xinhua) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday discussed with his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama the situations in Nagorno-Karabakh region, as well as Syrian and Ukrainian crises in a telephone conversation, according to a Kremlin statement.

On the dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh region between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which escalated into bloody clashes in early April, Putin and Obama talked about the results of the June 20 meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Russia's St. Petersburg.

Both Russia and the United States co-chair the Minsk Group under the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

Putin stressed Russia expected the speedy stabilization of the situation and the creation of conditions to push forward peace process.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-07/07/c_135493859.htm

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8. The Kremlin: Obama agrees to more military coordination in Syria

President Obama and Russian President Vladi­mir Putin, in a telephone call Wednesday, agreed they were ready to intensify military coordination in Syria, according to a Kremlin statement.

“Both sides reaffirmed their readiness to increase the military coordination of Russian and U.S. actions,” it said, according to a translation by the Russian news agency, Interfax.

The call, initiated by Putin, came as the Syrian military said it would begin a 72-hour truce in the country’s long-running civil war to honor the Eid holiday marking the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Syrian rebels reportedly agreed to the truce, although fighting continued.

Secretary of State John F. Kerry said he hoped the truce initiative was an “outgrowth” of talks in which the United States is trying to persuade Russia to press its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, to stop bombing civilians and opposition groups seeking to oust him. Kerry spoke during a visit to Tblisi, Georgia.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-kremlin-obama-agrees-to-more-military-coordination-in-syria/2016/07/06/21e57c3c-43b0-11e6-88d0-6adee48be8bc_story.html