South Korean perspectives on the upcoming summit
Trump says his meeting with North Korea's Kim will be held in Hanoi. Apparently Trump announced this on Twitter.
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/trump-kim-meeting-hanoi-vietnam-summit-11225200
(Source- JTBC News 02.08) Beigun is back from Pyongyang. Attention is on the results of the meeting. South Korea will be briefed first tomorrow. What are the points of agreement for the second summit? Reciprocal US measures? Suggested are partial easing of sanctions, specifically some easing on the quota for fuel sanctions and granting a sanctions waiver for reopening Kumgangsan resort and Kaesong industrial zone, joint Korean projects.
Stephen Biegun, US special representative for negotiations with North Korea, returned from his three day two night stay in Pyongyang for working level talks in preparation for the late February US-DPRK summit in Vietnam. After getting back to Osan, he hasn't made any official statements. Tomorrow he meets with his counterpart on the South Korean negotiating team, Lee Do Oon, to discuss what developments occurred at the meeting.
(Source- JTBC News 02.08) Kim Jong Un stopover in Hanoi possible. Projected period for Kim to visit Vietnam. Will there be an official state visit by Kim during the 24-25 period? Trump arrives on the 26th. Talks are projected for the 27th and 28th.
JTBC published a schedule they believe Kim Jong Un will follow bringing him to Hanoi for an official state visit, on Feb 24. JTBC wasn't predicting any surprises in the negotiations with the typical items routinely discussed in the news on the table. An end to the war declaration isn't considered likely by South Korean analysts at this point. Biegun's recent Stanford presentation had raised expectations until now, but the likelihood of such a development seems premature, especially without multilateral coordination.
Channel A News Top Ten analysts discussed the possibility of an end of war declaration in their program today. Top Ten analysts also suggested the US asked for a comprehensive list of North Korean ICBM and nuclear weapons specialists. They reasoned these people were a proliferation risk if they find themselves out of work similar to scientists in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union and wondered if they would be requested to to leave the country. A likely possibility is that US and IAEA experts would want to have access to these technical experts to make inspection and verification procedures meaningful. Perhaps this subject came up between Biegun and Stanford experts on North Korea, while he was there recently to make his presentation on the North Korean nuclear issues.
The usual issues that come up for US reciprocal measures are easing of sanctions, particularly in respect to Kumgangsan resort and the Kaesong joint industrial area, joint projects of North and South Korea, previously closed, and the possiblity of a US liaison office in North Korea. It is considered likely that North Korea would like some sanctions relief with respect to fuel imports and coal exports.
(Source- JTBC News 02.08) North Korean denuclearization measures (estimated by JTBC to be on the table) are a nuclear freeze; dismantling of Yongbyon nuclear facilities "plus Alfa;" and a pledge to give up their ICBMs.
It is believed the US delegation is seeking a complete verifiable freeze of nuclear weapons production, fissile material production, and ICBM production. This entails elimination of nuclear facilities at Yongbyon plus elimination of any other fissile material production or uranium enrichment facilities (plus Alfa). This would require identification of enrichment output history and facilities. According to JTBC a pledge to give up ICBM's is being requested. Performance of the latter would probably require a major reciprocal concession from the US.
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