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AZProgressive

(29,322 posts)
Wed Oct 20, 2021, 11:55 PM Oct 2021

Removing Iran from Syria

There have been occasional reports that Iran is reducing its military presence in Syria. Should they be taken seriously? Probably not, because Syria has become an integral part of the "Islamic Republic" of Iran's expansionist project. The regime in Tehran has linked its fate to this ongoing project, so much so that any Iranian pull back, be it in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or Yemen, will have a direct impact on it.

Iran is thus unlikely to withdraw from Syria. If some troop movement or redeployment does occur, it will be a tactical formality rather than of a strategic nature. Iran cannot change its natural inclinations, as to do so would mean changing the composition of a regime founded on the principle of "exporting the revolution" from a sectarian standpoint and nothing else.

The Iranian project had a strong start in 2003 with the US-led occupation of Iraq which handed the country to Iran on a platter. Now there is no reason for Iran to withdraw from Syria given the facts on the ground, not least because there is no clear Russian policy there apart from reprimanding Bashar Al-Assad occasionally, and meeting Iranian demands. As for Israeli airstrikes on Iranian positions within Syria, it seems clear that Iran can withstand them, especially since most of the victims are not Iranians, but Lebanese, Iraqis, Afghans, Pakistanis, and others.

Moreover, Tehran has invested billions of dollars in Syria. It hasn't done so in order to withdraw in response to demands from Moscow or anywhere else. The Iranian presence in Syria is more complicated than this, and Russia's ability to influence Tehran's decisions in Syria is limited. Indeed, it is becoming more apparent that Russia-Iran cooperation is more profound than previously thought. Despite the odd difference every now and again, there are many meeting points between Moscow and Tehran.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20211020-removing-iran-from-syria/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

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