US-Europe divide looms over Ukraine

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http://atimes.com/atimes/China/CHIN-02-050314.html



US-Europe divide looms over Ukraine
By Francesco Sisci
Mar 5, '14

BEIJING - Russia's quasi-military action in Ukraine is reawakening the ghosts of the old Cold War. Western plans to expel Moscow from the Group of Eight and to protect states bordering the new Russian empire threaten to throw up a new political and economic curtain around Russia and its leader, President Vladimir Putin.

This military intervention, following as it does the assault on Georgia in 2008, underlines that Russia is still the largest conventional military power that could turn against the West. Although Moscow does not post an immediate threat outside its self-defined sphere of influence, there should be a different understanding of the post-1989 reality. Western countries seem to think that Russia should be happy within its present borders, while Putin has made apparent he wants to keep a grasp of some of the country's former subjects.

Long and short-term considerations are needed in mulling a new cold war with Russia. The first begins with the question of whether Russia can become again a broad, global threat the way the USSR was. This may appear possible at first glance, but a closer look reveals that some of Russian development social and economic fundamentals seem flawed.

Some 80% of Russia's exports are energy and raw materials. The rest is largely outdated weaponry. It is a Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons. It has great scientific capabilities, but they have not been translated in industrial and business realities. There is a question whether its development can be sustained, and it seems a huge stretch to believe that in the foreseeable future it could become an economic powerhouse to challenge the US or European Union in the way China and East Asia in general are doing now.