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Mosby

(16,258 posts)
Mon Jan 14, 2013, 04:55 PM Jan 2013

Bibi’s Bomb: The Iranian Threat Is No Joke

-snip-

The mirth-filled international reaction to the “Bibi bomb” showcased what Sigmund Freud called “the pleasure principle”—our tendency to relieve tension by hallucinatory wish-fulfillment. What Netanyahu did on the podium at the United Nations was to reassert “the reality principle”: the necessity of accommodating to the facts of the external world.

He confronted the world with six facts, to be precise:

Fact 1. Iran really is an eliminationist anti-Semitic regime that routinely threatens to wipe Israel off the map. Its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad demonizes the state of Israel and has called for it to be “erased from the page of time.” He calls Zionists “the most detested people in all humanity” and the murder of six million Jews during World War II “a myth.”

-snip-

Fact 2. This regime is close to having a nuclear capability. The IAEA concluded in August that Iran had more than ninety kilograms of twenty-percent enriched uranium, and was producing fifteen kilos of the same each month (you need two hundred and twenty-five kilos, give or take, to produce twenty-five kilos of high-enriched uranium—enough for one bomb). As more centrifuges are being installed, the red line Netanyahu drew on his cartoon will be reached by spring or summer of 2013.

-snip-

Fact 3. Iran is absolutely not just Israel’s problem. The Iranian regime would use nuclear weapons not only in its death wish for Israel but also to pursue regional hegemony over the Gulf, the source of two-thirds of the world’s proven oil reserves, threatening global oil markets.

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/bibi%E2%80%99s-bomb-iranian-threat-no-joke?

7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Bibi’s Bomb: The Iranian Threat Is No Joke (Original Post) Mosby Jan 2013 OP
well the main worry then is obviously the effect on global oil markets. dipsydoodle Jan 2013 #1
This is complete horse shit... shaayecanaan Jan 2013 #2
If PM Netanyahu wants war with Iran then let him do it on his own. R. Daneel Olivaw Jan 2013 #3
was Bibi sitting on an Israeli nuclear bomb when saying this? Alamuti Lotus Jan 2013 #4
It's a little weird, isn't it? Scootaloo Jan 2013 #5
Yeah ..... something really smells. polly7 Jan 2013 #7
Apparently Israeli nukes are completely worthless as a deterrent. bemildred Jan 2013 #6

shaayecanaan

(6,068 posts)
2. This is complete horse shit...
Mon Jan 14, 2013, 05:34 PM
Jan 2013

Iran had produced over 189 kg of 20% enriched U-235 by September, according to the IAEA:-

http://www.isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Iran_report_--_August_30_2012.pdf

I am not sure how this person managed to get such a basic fact so overwhelmingly wrong.

(you need two hundred and twenty-five kilos, give or take, to produce twenty-five kilos of high-enriched uranium—enough for one bomb).


Completely wrong. Even a very hasty conversion process would be unlikely to discard nearly 50% of available u-235. Usual tails are more like 20% over the whole conversion process:-

http://books.sipri.org/files/books/SIPRI83Krass/SIPRI83Krass05.pdf (scroll down to page 101)

and then read this:-

http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/5699/how-close-is-iran-to-bomb-1






5

 

R. Daneel Olivaw

(12,606 posts)
3. If PM Netanyahu wants war with Iran then let him do it on his own.
Mon Jan 14, 2013, 11:37 PM
Jan 2013

Let Israel use its own military, blood, resources and whatever else they can muster if they believe that war is the answer for them

I would suggest that diplomacy be used whenever possible, through the UN, through Iran's trading partners if possible and by direct negotiation or high level meetings, without preconditions, to bring about a meaningful solution.

PM Netanyahu went before the UN and with a bad chart and tried to convince the world diplomatic body that something must be done before the bomb graphic reaches above 90%.

The US has been in two undeclared wars for the past decade. They don't need another one. The world economy does not need a shock of that kind in the main OPEC region or flat out hostilities because Iran retaliates for being bombed.

PM Netanyahu goes before the UN body and expects what, action on his command(?), yet he and his country have thumbed their nose at the UN on resolution after resolution with regard to Israel.


Nikita Krsuchev threatened to bury the west, and the west didn't bomb the Soviets. The west used diplomacy, strength and time, and eventually the Soviets went away. The west, and Israel, can wait out the Mullahs like the Soviets were.

Iran may be a theocracy, but I don't believe that they are stupid enough to light a rocket on Tel Aviv. Firstly it would mean the end of Iran, and secondly even if Iran builds a bomb they would have to test it: a dead giveaway. That would be a heads up to their true intentions, and at that point then all plans are on the table with enough time to counter any threat.

 

Alamuti Lotus

(3,093 posts)
4. was Bibi sitting on an Israeli nuclear bomb when saying this?
Tue Jan 15, 2013, 12:50 AM
Jan 2013

It would just be a very evocative image and would authoritatively silence anybody who think there's a double-standard at work here..

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
5. It's a little weird, isn't it?
Tue Jan 15, 2013, 06:13 AM
Jan 2013

That a non-signatory to the NPT has such influence over how the NPT is enforced. Moreover that a nation that refuses enforcement of the treaties it is party to, has any call to demand others follow treaties.

I'd imagine that if Iran ever gets nukes, they'll be aimed east. Pakistan's a bigger concern for Iran, after all.

polly7

(20,582 posts)
7. Yeah ..... something really smells.
Tue Jan 15, 2013, 09:06 AM
Jan 2013
Under a long-standing policy, Israel refuses to acknowledge it has nuclear weapons, relying on the often-repeated mantra that it would not be the first country to introduce such weapons into the region. Unlike Iran, Israel is not a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.


http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/netanyahus-crazy-talk-seen-threatening-israels-nuclear-ambiguity/

The Israelis first sought nuclear assistance from the United States under the Atoms for Peace initiative. In 1955, the two countries signed a nuclear cooperation agreement through which the United States provided Israel with a small research reactor under bilateral safeguards and with peaceful-use provisions. Understanding this agreement would not provide Israel with the technology needed for a weapons program, Bergmann asked the Americans for an upgrade, “something like a real reactor,” to produce plutonium.[6] U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) chairman Lewis Strauss essentially told Bergmann that the United States would not provide Israel plutonium or hot cells, and that any nuclear reactor it built would be safeguarded.[7] Recognizing that the United States could only provide limited nuclear assistance, Bergmann advised Peres in mid-1956 that Israel would need to build two reactors at the same time, one with American assistance and another one on its own.[8] Peres turned down that suggestion; instead attention quickly was given to France as another potential nuclear supplier.


http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/israel/nuclear/

At a subsequent meeting with Ben-Gurion, de Gaulle offered to sell Israel fighter aircraft in exchange for stopping work on the reprocessing plant, and came away from the meeting convinced that the matter was closed. It was not. Over the next few months, Israel worked out a compromise. France would supply the uranium and components already placed on order and would not insist on international inspections. In return, Israel would assure France that they had no intention of making atomic weapons, would not reprocess any plutonium, and would reveal the existence of the reactor, which would be completed without French assistance. In reality, not much changed - French contractors finished work on the reactor and reprocessing plant, uranium fuel was delivered and the reactor went critical in 1964.

The United States first became aware of Dimona's existence after U-2 overflights in 1958 captured the facility's construction, but it was not identified as a nuclear site until two years later. The complex was variously explained as a textile plant, an agricultural station, and a metallurgical research facility, until David Ben-Gurion stated in December 1960 that Dimona complex was a nuclear research center built for "peaceful purposes."

There followed two decades in which the United States, through a combination of benign neglect, erroneous analysis, and successful Israeli deception, failed to discern first the details of Israel's nuclear program. As early as 8 December 1960, the CIA issued a report outlining Dimona's implications for nuclear proliferation, and the CIA station in Tel Aviv had determined by the mid-1960s that the Israeli nuclear weapons program was an established and irreversible fact.

United States inspectors visited Dimona seven times during the 1960s, but they were unable to obtain an accurate picture of the activities carried out there, largely due to tight Israeli control over the timing and agenda of the visits. The Israelis went so far as to install false control room panels and to brick over elevators and hallways that accessed certain areas of the facility. The inspectors were able to report that there was no clear scientific research or civilian nuclear power program justifying such a large reactor - circumstantial evidence of the Israeli bomb program - but found no evidence of "weapons related activities" such as the existence of a plutonium reprocessing plant.


http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/

Transkript:
David Goessmann: The New York Times quotes American and Israeli officials saying the military attack on Gaza was a practice run for any future armed confrontation with Iran. Israel keeps threatening Iran with a military attack. U.S. president Barack Obama has repeatedly declared that in case of Iran “all options are on the table” while the sanctions against Iran deteriorate the economy and even strengthen President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. At this point there is no indication and evidence that Iran has even facilities to start building a nuclear bomb. What is your assessment of the U.S.-Israeli policy, supported by European countries, in regard to Iran and the probability of a military escalation?

Gilbert Achcar: Yes. When you look at this problem the only sensible, peaceful policy in the region, the only sensible alternative to this escalation that exists, would be a nuclear free Middle East. And this is a perspective for which many people have been fighting and actually it's even the official position of Arab states to call for a nuclear free Middle East.

David Goessmann: There are UN resolutions for that.

Gilbert Achcar: Of course. You have a Helsinki conference about it and all that. But who is rejecting that ? Not Iran because, as you just said, the Iranians keep saying "We are not building a nuclear bomb. We do not even want to build one, because we believe this is a non-muslim weapon" as Chamenei and even Ahmadinejad said. Because it kills indiscriminately and that's against our religion. They have made statements of this kind. And yet, Iran is signatory to the NPT, the nuclear anti-proliferation treaty. Israel is not. And everyone knows that Israel is nuclear state. Everyone knows that Israel has at least 200 nuclear warheads. It's a major nuclear power, it's not even a small nuclear power, it's a major nuclear power. So, when the United States threaten Iran with war, it is like confirming the right of Israel to have a nuclear monopoly in the region. And this is the best way to avoid any peaceful solution. Because the United States could have a very different policy, which is to put pressure on Israel for de-nuclearisation, for an agreement, which Iran would definitely sign, as all the states of the region, for a nuclear free Middle East. Washington is the only power capable of imposing that on Israel. For two reasons: Because on the one hand Israel depends on the United States to a great extent. Secondly, because the United States can offer their nuclear guarantee to Israel. And Israel knows anyhow that is has a de-facto guarantee for its existence from the United States. So it doesn't accumulate nuclear weapons on its soil. This is a sensible policy to do. But this is not, of course, what Netanjahu and other Israeli governments have been doing. What they are doing is just, you know, trying to - on the one hand assert their right to a nuclear monopoly and the willingness to strike. You know, we have already strikes in Iraq in 1981, the Israeli aviation destroyed the nuclear reactor in Iraq. Recently in Syria, because they said there is some kind of nuclear activity there, and the threat to do that in Iran. Each time, this is creating huge dangers, because when you bomb a nuclear reactor, like the one Israel bomb in Iraq in 1981, what guarantee you don't have is that this won't lead to a catastrophe. At least the recent Japanese type of catastrophe, or the Chernobyl kind of catastrophe. So, when you say you want to bomb nuclear facilities or whatever in Iran, the very thought of that is just criminal. It's just criminal. This shows that there is no rational pro-peace perspective. The only rationality at all is a warmongering rationality, which is a danger for not only the region. I would say for humantiy. Because this just feeds into some kind of crazy cycle of race to weapons of mass destruction and the rest. Who knows what can happen? It's all the more irrational from a peaceful perspective for a state like Israel to do that, that is such a small state, and, as you know, a nuclear cloud does not stop at the border. And an army, even the strongest army on earth can not stop a nuclear cloud, if ever you have one. This is really playing with fire and it's extremely dangerous what is happening.


http://www.kontext-tv.de/broadcast/141212/gilbert-achcar/nuclear-weapons-middle-east
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