Netanyahu poised to win Likud primaries despite far-right challenge

[Jefferson23]

In the Likud leadership poll, Netanyahu's only challenger is Moshe Feiglin, a far-right settler with little chance of unseating the PM.

By Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is poised to win a new mandate to lead his right-wing Likud party on Tuesday in a primary vote which may signal he favours an early parliamentary election to strengthen his hand with Washington.

National elections are not due until late 2013, and Netanyahu's decision to hold the Likud primaries now has raised speculation that he intends to call a national vote closer to the time of the U.S. presidential election late this year.

Political commentators say a Likud victory in a parliamentary poll held before or shortly after the U.S. vote in November would leave Netanyahu better placed to deal with Barack Obama, with whom he has had a frosty relationship, if the Democrat is re-elected.

Many Israelis worry that Obama, in a second term, may exert greater pressure on Israel to yield land for peace with the Palestinians, which could upset Netanyahu's clout in his pro-settler party and its core conservative electorate.

in full: http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/netanyahu-poised-to-win-likud-primaries-despite-far-right-challenge-1.410069

[Lawlbringer]

1. I thought

Bibi WAS far-right.

Can anyone explain the political spectrum in Israel? Are the far-rights over there just the ultra-Orthodox?

[Donald Ian Rankin]

2. There are several dimensions to Israeli politics, not just left vs right.

There are hawks vs doves, economic left-wingers vs right-wingers, and religious vs secular, plus some parties draw especially on different demographics.

The current government is lead by Likud (right to far right, hawkish to ultrahawkish, a mix of secular and religious), backed up by, among others, Ysrael Beitenu (right-wing, ultrahawkish, secular, a lot of support from Russian immigrants) Independence (a relatively hawkish offshoot of the once left-liberal Labour party, which was the dominant force in Israel's politics for most of its history but is now pretty much in its death throws; they're in the coalition more to cling to power for Ehud Barak than due to ideology), Shas (in some ways rather left-wing economically I think; hawkish to ultrahawkish, religious, socially conservative), and a variety of other small hawkish religious parties.

Outside the coalition are Kadima (a mish-mash of various people who weren't happy in labour or Likud; no-one is quite sure what it stands for but it seems to be hawkish but less hawkish than Likud, economically and socially vaguely leftish, and generally "moderate&quot , what is left of Labour, what is left of Meretz (the only genuinely dovish party in Israel, now almost extinct), a bunch of Arab parties (basically irrelevant to Israeli politics), and a few others.

[Ruby the Liberal]

3. There are 13 or 14 parties in the Knesset right now.

Kadima (center) has the most seats from the last election, but not enough for a majority, to Likud joined with Yisrael Beitneu) for a unity coalition.

As mentioned above, Shas and United Torah are the Ultra Orthodox parties and Israel Our Home (Ysrael Beitenu - Avi Lieberman) is so far to the right I think Israel has the only dial that can contain their ideology. A lot of that has to do with Lieberman's being Russian and running campaigns in his native language than the actual ideology, IMO. He/they cater to the Russian immigrants and drag the ideology behind them. Not unlike Ron Paul with his anti-war stance dragging otherwise rational people behind him here in the US.

There are 3 Arab-israeli parties and 1 druize, but I am not certain about their representation currently - whether they have seats, or if they do, in what percentage of the whole.

[azurnoir]

5. The Arab parties are Ta'al, Balad, and Hadash

together they hold 11 out of 120 seats in the Knesset, in 2009 the Central Elections Committee voted to disqualify Balad and Ta'al from the 2009 elections they were over ruled by the Israeli Supreme Court . One of Balads seats is held by Haneen Zoabi who ran into 'controversy' over her participation in the May 2010 Flotilla and more recently for meeting with Hamas members

An IDF raid on Hamas offices in Tulkarem turned up a photo of MK Hanin Zoabi (Balad) rubbing elbows with well-known Hamas figures.

The photo -- recovered with a cache of intelligence data in December -- shows Zoabi alongside four known Hamas members.

Aziz Dwaik, the Hamas terror movement's most senior representative Judea and Samaria, and Mariam Saleh, the former minister for women's affairs in Hamas-run Gaza, were also in the photo.

Both Dwaik and Saleh have served time in Israeli prisons for alleged involvement in a terror organization. The meeting took place shortly after Dwaik was released from prison.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/151919#.Tyj2coGiuy8

[oberliner]

7. Here's the breakdown

There are four major parties in Israel - two left of center, and two right of center.

The spectrum goes like this (from left to right):

Labour, Kadima, Likud, Beteinu

Kadima, the center-left party, got the most votes in the last election, but couldn't form a governing coalition, because it's potential partner, Labour, came in fourth.

Likud, the center-right party, came in second and with Beteinu, the third place finisher, was able to form a governing coalition - this is in place today.

Within Likud, there is a battle between those who are coming around to accept a two-state solution (Netanyahu) - and the more hard-liners who do not like what they see as Likud's move to the center (Feiglin).

Those hard liners tend to be much more on the religious side than the rest of Likud (like Netanyahu, who is pretty secular).

In the recent Likud primay, the far-right wing was trounced soundly.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

12. Some of that is debateable.

> There are four major parties in Israel - two left of center, and two right of center.

An election ago you were clearly right. I don't think you're right to be confident that Labour will remain a major party, though - it may recover, but it may be that it's schism has reduced it to minor party status for the time being. We'll need to wait to the next election to see.



> Kadima, the center-left party, got the most votes in the last election, but couldn't form a governing coalition, because it's potential partner, Labour, came in fourth.

Describing Kadima as "centre left" rather than "centrist" or even "centre right" is certainly open to question. I think the most accurate designation is "idealogically spread, because it was founded by people from all over the political spectrum, including a fair number of centre-leftists (e.g. Perez) but lead by a far-rightist". Noteably, Both the founder (Sharon) and the most likely challenger for leadership (Silvan Shalom) are well to the right of the current leader (Livni)


>Likud, the center-right party, came in second and with Beteinu, the third place finisher, was able to form a governing coalition - this is in place today.

Likud does not deserve the epithet "centre" - it ranges from the far right (Nutty) to the even further right (Feiglin).


>Within Likud, there is a battle between those who are coming around to accept a two-state solution (Netanyahu) - and the more hard-liners who do not like what they see as Likud's move to the center (Feiglin).

This is the bit I disagree with most strongly - Netanyahu pays lip service to a two-state solution, but I don't think there can be any question that he still opposes it in practice. Do you really think he's undergone a Damascene conversion, rather than just having worked out that by claiming to support a two-state solution while expanding settlements he can get the benefits of looking like a peace-maker, without actually risking it becoming a reality?


> In the recent Likud primay, the far-right wing was trounced soundly.

Are the results finalised yet? Last I heard Feiglin was on 36%, but wikipedia now says 25%.

[oberliner]

13. Everything is debatable

I would mention that there are some who don't think the Democratic Party in the US is left of center. Is that a fair statement?

I am just trying to give a general overview - as I would if I were outlining the US political system - obviously there are more complexities (like, are the Democrats really left?), but it's helpful, I think to boil down the basics.

Whether Netanyahu really believes I cannot say (same for any politician), but he has publicly expressed support for a Palestinian state in a number of forums - and this is indeed part of the crux of why this group within his party is so angry with him.

With respect to the Likud primary:

With 85% of ballots counted, Mr Netanyahu had received 75% of the vote, Israeli media reported.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16826469

I think the final tally is supposed to be done today or tomorrow.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

14. Definately yes or probably no, depending on how I parse it.

(quotation marks mine)

> I would mention that "there are some who don't think the Democratic Party in the US is left of center". Is that a fair statement?

More than fair, it's incontrovertible - you can point at some such people.

> I would mention that there are some who "don't think the Democratic Party in the US is left of center". Is that a fair statement?

It depends what centre you're talking about - the Democratic party is to the left of the current centre of US politics; it's *probably* still left of the historical centre of US politics measured over the last few decades; it may nor may not be to the left of the centre of politics averaged over the Western states.


In the case of Israel, the Israeli political spectrum appears to have recently lurched right, leading to a bizarre situation where I can seriously say that I think "most Israelis are right of the centre of Israeli politics", taking the centre as where it's been in the past. Something similar has happened in the US, I believe, but much less dramatically and on a much longer timescale.

[Ruby the Liberal]

16. There is no question that politics in the US has swung HARD right

over the last 40-50 years.

Nixon would be considered a lefty liberal in today's scope. Eisenhower would have been so far to the left of Obama that he would have been unelectable.

[oberliner]

18. Have you been to Israel lately?

I'm wondering if your assessment is based on personal experience or things you've read online or what.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

19. Never, don't intend to, and would try not to be influenced too much by whatever I saw if I did.

On the grounds that one trip, or even one lifetime, wouldn't provided anything like a statistically significant sample of opinions.

My beliefs about Israeli politics are based on, among other things, reading Israeli newspapers, reading articles about Israel, reading statements by Israeli politicians, and looking at Israeli election results.

[oberliner]

20. Thanks for the response

I would argue, however, that one does get a different (perhaps not better) sense of a place by actually spending some time there than from relying exclusively on reading articles and the like.

That's happened to me with a number of countries.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

21. Of the place, quite possibly, but of the politics?

And I think the place one gets a sense of is much smaller than a country - probably smaller than a city, in most cases.

[Ruby the Liberal]

4. Forgive me if I missed it, but on what basis

is Bibi threatening to call for early elections? Is he rumbling about back-dooring a no-confidence vote or threatening to personally dissolve the coalition?

Apologies in advance for not paying closer attention.

[azurnoir]

6. Netanyahu easily won over challenger Moshe Feiglin

but what struck me is in at least Ha'aretz there is far more about Romney's win in Florida like it's bigger news for some reason

[oberliner]

8. Why would that strike you?

There is no Israeli general election happening any time soon - whereas the US, on the other hand...

[bemildred]

9. Some people think otherwise.

Not my expertise, not trying to pick a fight, but I thought t was interesting, the argument made below. I don't see much reason why Bibi and Barak should suddenly become friends, the personality clash is too great, so it's an issue if they are both going to be around for years yet.

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jan/29/world/la-fg-israel-elections-20120129

"January 29, 2012|By Edmund Sanders, Los Angeles Times

Reporting from Jerusalem — Israel's current coalition government is one of its most stable in decades, and the next scheduled national poll is nearly two years off. Yet election fever has gripped the country and some believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is quietly preparing to call for an early vote, perhaps in the middle of this year."

[oberliner]

10. Not a lot of evidence for "election fever" in the Israeli media

As my fellow poster pointed out above, the US elections are getting a lot more play in the papers.

Check out Hebrew language Ma'ariv - which is what Israelis actually read, not English Ha'aretz - and the same story seems to be borne out.

[bemildred]

11. Not saying I believe it myself.

But I see the argument made as plausible. But maybe not for Bibi. Bibi is pretty implausible himself.

You are quite right about coverage of US politics, at least as I see it in my limited browsing, I was pointing out that the idea of early elections has been suggested.

[azurnoir]

15. Then I would say the question is why was a primary held now?

was Netanyahu just passing time?

[oberliner]

17. I think he wanted to establish his command of the party

Don't forget, it wasn't too long ago that some dissatisfied Labor members decide to break ranks and start their own party.

I think with all the grumblings from the right wing of Likud, Netanyahu wanted to give them a put up or shut up opportunity.