In 2014, American Jewish leaders might lose control of the Israel debate

[Jefferson23]

Washington’s failure to clinch two-state deal would shift Palestinian focus to international groups and college campuses where organized Jewry holds little sway.

By Peter Beinart | Jan. 1, 2014 |

In the spirit of the season, let me hazard a prediction: 2014 will be the year that America’s Israel debate begins to pass the organized American Jewish community by.

The first reason is the end of the American-dominated peace process. Despite John Kerry’s best efforts, the most likely scenario is that 2014 will be the year he fails. Even if Kerry manages to convince Israeli and Palestinian leaders to accept a “framework agreement,” which lays out guidelines for a final deal, it’s unlikely he can get it implemented. At the end of the day, Benjamin Netanyahu still leads a party dominated by people opposed to a Palestinian state. Indeed, the man he’s just appointed as his top foreign policy advisor publicly opposes a Palestinian state. For Netanyahu to embrace a territorially viable Palestinian state with a capital in East Jerusalem would mean losing his political base, something that throughout his political career he has adamantly refused to do. In Dennis Ross’ memoir, he recalls Netanyahu explaining that a leader can never abandon “his tribe” of core supporters.

For almost four years, nothing the Obama administration has done has changed that. And now, with violence against Israel increasing and Obama having signed an Iran deal that Netanyahu hates, John Kerry has less leverage and Netanyahu has more excuses. Yet the more Kerry caves to Netanyahu - for instance, by backing a 10-year Israeli presence in the Jordan Valley even though the Clinton Parameters called for Israel to leave within three - the weaker he makes Mahmoud Abbas, a man who may be too weak to sign a conflict-ending deal already.

Kerry himself has said that if “we do not succeed now, we may not get another chance.” He’s right. If he fails, the United States won’t take another shot until it inaugurates a new president in 2017, and maybe not then. In the meantime, the Israeli-Palestinian struggle will move outside Washington as Palestinians take their case to international organizations, college campuses, religious and labor groups and European consumers. And for the organized American Jewish community, that’s a disaster because universities, international organizations and liberal religious groups are exactly the places the American Jewish establishment is weak.

in full:http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-1.566432#

[Jefferson23]

1. more

It’s sadly ironic. The organized American Jewish community has spent decades building influence in Washington. But it’s succeeded too well. By making it too politically painful for Obama to push Netanyahu toward a two-state deal, the American Jewish establishment (along with its Christian right allies) is making Washington irrelevant. For two decades, the core premise of the American-dominated peace process has been that since only America enjoys leverage over Israel, the rest of the world should leave the Israel-Palestinian conflict in America’s hands.

But across the world, fewer and fewer people believe Washington will effectively use its leverage, and if the Kerry mission fails, Washington will no longer even try. The Palestinians are ready with a Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) campaign that shifts the struggle to arenas where the American Jewish establishment lacks influence. In the Russell Senate Office Building, Howard Kohr and Malcolm Hoenlein’s opinions carry weight. In German supermarkets and the Modern Language Association, not so much.

But the decline of the American-led peace process is only one reason 2014 may spell the decline of organized American Jewish influence. The other is Iran. For two decades, AIPAC and its allies have successfully pushed a harder and harder American line against Iran’s nuclear program. In Congress, where a bipartisan group of senators has just introduced new sanctions legislation over White House objections, that hard-line agenda remains popular. But in the country at large, it risks alienating the Americans who will dominate politics in the decades to come.

It’s no secret that young Americans are less unwaveringly “pro-Israel” than their elders. According to a 2013 Pew Research Center poll, while a majority of Americans over 65 say they sympathize primarily with Israel, among Americans under 30 it drops to just over one-in-three, with a plurality of respondents saying they sympathize with both sides.

[oberliner]

2. That sure sounds like Peter Beinart

He occupies an interesting position in these discussions in that everyone seems not to like him. A liberal Zionist who is not liberal enough for liberals and not Zionist enough for Zionists.

[Jefferson23]

3. ha ha, I think that is true. n/t

[shaayecanaan]

11. it probably means he is onto something nt

[shaayecanaan]

4. I think the entire issue will pass the United States by...

The Americans have no money and even less desire for international escapades any more. I imagine with time the attitude of the broad body politic towards Israel and Palestine will be "a plague on both their houses".

I think the issue will probably shift to Europe, which, given its proximity to Israel and the fact that the Arab states remain relatively resolute in their position on Israel, will become the fulcrum. Demographically, you'd have to assume that the Arabs in Europe should be able to acquire some sort of influence eventually.

[Jefferson23]

5. I hope you're right.

I don't like anything I see coming down the road right now..the deal is essentially
money and prisoners in exchange for a interim agreement which will allow more settlements.
That Kerry is presenting to Abbas the idea he should recognize Israel as a
Jewish state is another move to take RoR off the table all together.

[bemildred]

6. I concur.

Been saying that Uncle Sugar is going to be leaving ever since the Neocons invaded Iraq. Of course it will still be messy.

[oberliner]

7. Zero chance of that happening

That you can actually think this shows a very limited understanding of the relationship between the United States and Israel.

[shaayecanaan]

8. Remember

that prior to 1973, America's relationship with Israel was a lot cooler than it is now. If you think the current conga line attitude towards Israel is going to exist in perpetuity, dream on.

[bemildred]

9. They assume it's based on principle, affiliation, like with them. They ought to know better.

Our foreign policy wonks can get very huffy with former-satrapies that disobey too. It's all about control.

On the other hand, we are in retreat, and the wonks are befuddled by events, the nobility of their cause is being questioned, so we are not likely to do much about it. I expect lots of free-lancing and musical-alliances from here on out.

[shaayecanaan]

10. I will probably miss US primacy once its gone I suspect...

even in the case of Israel. One American commentator observed that without the US relationship Israel would effectively be a "Serbia with nuclear weapons" - isolated, paranoid and essentially unmanageable. At least the Americans have been a restraining influence at times.

Over here in Asia people are wondering what to do about China. They are starting to flex their muscles and it is unpleasant to watch smaller nations get bullied, even if Latin American countries felt the same way about the US:-

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/10/27/south-china-sea/

[bemildred]

12. Very possible.

I'm very pessimistic every time I think about it, so I don't think about it much. I don't construct an argument as to what will happen, but I consider my reading and analogous historical times - there are many, many theories - and it's just never quiet. And that's without even considering environmental issues, which destroy societies, and are already having a profound impact. It's just hard to see how it gets better without some horriffic interregnum, so to speak, and no sort of political leadership in sight to attempt to be proactive about it.