Israel/Palestine
Related: About this forumLiberman's secret plan to storm the Likud Party
After the launch of Avigdor Libermans new 2014 persona, all we have left to do is find out what road the foreign minister will take to realize his dream of becoming the prime minister of Israel, to where he emigrated in 1978 from the Soviet Union at age 20. Liberman faces a simple dilemma: Either he returns to his independent Yisrael Beitenu Party to scrape up some 20 seats out of the 120-seat parliament which is not an impossible feat or he will dismantle his own party and join the Likud Party to seize control of the ruling party from within, thus earning a ready-made political platform.
Liberman joined the Likud ranks as soon as he arrived in Israel, serving as the partys director-general when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took control of it in 1993. He still holds onto many important power bases in that party, among its constituents as well as in the partys caucus. That said, Liberman faces fierce opposition inside the Likud from all those who consider his return as jeopardizing their own standing and future. Minister of the Interior Gideon Saar, Defense Minister Moshe (Bogie) Yaalon, Minister for Regional Development Silvan Shalom and maybe even Minister for Strategic Affairs Yuval Steinitz are hoping to succeed Netanyahu some day. There are also the various radical elements, chief among them Deputy Transportation Minister Tzipi Hotovely, Deputy Defense Minister Danny Danon, Coalition Chairman Yariv Levin and others who construe Libermans moderate political views and his surprising pragmatism to be a threat to them. The latter, combined with the settlers, who make up many of the Likud constituents, will see Liberman as a foreign element that should be prevented from making a hostile takeover of the party.
Before the 2013 elections and following a decision that rocked the political establishment, Netanyahu and Liberman called a news conference, announcing that the Likud and Yisrael Beitenu parties would run in a joint slate called Likud Beitenu." Back then, Liberman predicted that the joint slate would garner as many as 45 seats (prior to the election they had 42 seats together; 27 for Likud and 15 for Liberman.) The foreign ministers prophecy proved wrong. The joint party suffered a resounding defeat, raking in only 31 seats (thus posting a loss of 11 seats compared to what they had before.) Yet, that was the most successful abortive move in the history of Israels politics, since it awarded Netanyahu another term as prime minister. Had Netanyahu not joined forces with Liberman, he very well could have lost the elections. The rest is history.
For the past month and nearly under the radar, Liberman has been campaigning among his activists on the ground ahead of the decision he would be expected to make in early March. Two weeks ago, he visited the town of Katzrin in the Golan Heights, where all his activists in the north got together. At his request, he was presented with a carefully crafted and highly detailed plan as well as a list of 100 key activists. Each one of them pledged to sign up 400 Israelis to the Likud Party. The objective of this plan is to join the Likud and sign up on Libermans behalf an overwhelming number of 40,000 new members. This is a tall order that will tilt the balance of power within the Likud, making Liberman the strongest man in the party overnight.
Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/02/liberman-likud-premiership-netanyahu-katz-settlers.html#ixzz2tboWgnDi
sabbat hunter
(6,828 posts)he goes back to his original party or splinters Likud in some other way.
It will give the chance for a center-left party union that can form a stable coalition and get a peace treaty with true negotiations with the PA.
Labor
Meretz
Yesh Atid
Hatunah
Kadima
It will require compromising between those parties, but if they can get an agreement going between them for running under one banner, I believe that they can win the parliamentary elections and form a stable coalition.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)sabbat hunter
(6,828 posts)Both Lieberman and Bibi are power hungry. Bibi has a lot of support within Likud so it will be hard to unseat him from his leadership position (especially as a sitting PM). So Lieberman will likely split the party back up and perhaps bring some Likudniks with him.
But either way it will cause a rift on the right wing of the secular parties (people who vote for the religious ones will continue to vote for them).
So I would rate it as better than 70/30 that there will be a split of some sort on the right.
The bigger question mark to me is if the center-left parties can get together under one banner for the common good, instead of the splintering which keeps them weak.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)snip* As the nation's mood seems to slide ever rightwards, polls still show majority support for the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state. And the mass social movement of 2011, a united cry against the nation's crippling neoliberal economics, brought 500,000 of the nation's 8 million on to the streets the largest protests in Israel's history. How is it possible, in this context, for the left to be so powerless in politics?
The straight answer is that the Israeli left has never really been leftwing. Labour has long been the elite, establishment party, dominated by Jews of European origin who monopolised power and discriminated against Jewish communities from Muslim and Arab countries (labelled "Mizrahi" or "Eastern" . Such discrimination the lopsided allocation of resources, such as land or education; the cultural negation was so bad that ethnicity is now too often synonymous with class.
In the late 1970s, the rightwing Likud exploited this to win a landslide victory. Its leader at the time, Menachem Begin, toured city slums and peripheral towns proclaiming his party would never dishonour or deprive the majority Mizrahi population like Labour did. The wealth gap widened under Likud's naked capitalism, but mistrust of a condescending, Eurocentric left wing still holds sway especially as ethnic discrimination remains an unacknowledged divide.
In a new documentary about the left, which recently aired on Israeli TV, the Iraqi-born Israeli author Sami Michael explains this crucial, myopic contradiction within the pro-peace left: "They see [Mizrahis] as a danger, because we bring Arab culture, enemy culture which the Israeli left hates," he says. "It's nice for them to be photographed with Arabs, to say that they have Arab friends, that they want peace. But peace with whom? First of all make peace with your own people!"
But the Israeli left can't make peace with the Palestinians, either not even with the Palestinians who make up 20% of Israel's population, but are second-class citizens because of systemic discrimination. No Israeli government has included Arab political parties. Even in 1999, after gaining 94% of the Palestinian vote in Israel, Labour snubbed this sector and built a coalition without even a token Arab party. When peace talks with Palestinians at Camp David failed, the then Labour prime minister, Ehud Barak, proclaimed that Israel had "no partner for peace" a cowardly own goal that kicked away a political foundation-stone.
"This is what made the right wing stronger," says Asma Aghbaria-Zahalka, leader of Daam, the Jewish-Arab workers' party. Although unlikely to gain a Knesset seat, she has gained many column inches for her fresh, charismatic socialism. "The Israeli left has no future without the Arabs, and the right will stay in power for ever," she says.
Therein lies another problem with the Israeli left: it doesn't really do equality. As Sami Michael (who is also president of the Association for Civil Rights in Israel) points out in the TV documentary, this should be the starting point of any leftwing party. While the right dominates identity politics with its ultra-patriotic Jewish nationalism, the supposed left can't provide a more inclusive, democratic alternative.
As Anat Saragusti, director of the social change communications centre Agenda explains: "My Israeli nationality is much larger and broader than my Jewish nationality. I have more in common with Arab citizens of Israel than with Jews in Guatemala or New York." A truly leftwing party would rise above the choking patriotism test of Jewish ethnocentrism and find a better alternative.
This failure to support an inclusive Israeli identity in part explains the factionalism that typifies Israeli left politics without binding progressive ideals, every party has its pet issues to peddle. Ahead of this election, the Israeli centre-left sub-split into a baffling number of atomised parties now including Labour, Kadima, Hatnuah, Meretz, Yesh Atid which then polluted media coverage with childish squabbles about who wants to join whose gang. Small wonder that centre-left Israelis can't be bothered to vote.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jan/21/left-israel-own-worst-enemy
sabbat hunter
(6,828 posts)that Labour, Kadima, Meretz, Hatnuah, Yesh Atid have been squabbling too much, which means they aren't focusing on what really matters. It would require a lot of compromise on their part to unify, put forward a platform which includes land for peace with the Palestinians and has a center-left social/economic agenda.
But if they do, I think it will energize the portion of the Israeli population that has been sitting out, to go out and vote for them.
It won't be easy, but I think it can be done.
Additionally, while I do not know if they need to include arab-israeli parties in the coalition, they should at least include more in their member lists, so that the get seats in the knesset and minsters in the cabinet (ie labor getting 94% of the Israeli-Arab vote shows that they should have at least some arab-Israelis on their member lists, high enough so they can realistically have seats in Knesset)
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)Israeli
(4,148 posts)on Jerusalem sabbat hunter ...much like yourself .
see: http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Shelah-defies-Yesh-Atid-platform-Jerusalem-will-be-Palestinian-capital-323680
The solution in Jerusalem will be very complex. It will be one of words and of actions, Shelah added. We cannot just build a wall and say this is ours and this is yours. Shelah, a former television and print journalist, never hid his opinions, which put him at the far left in the spectrum of opinions within Yesh Atid.
Last week, he wrote on Facebook the occupation must end not because of the worlds demands, but for the good of our worthy existence here and due to the rising price we have to pay for it every day.
"" Additionally, while I do not know if they need to include arab-israeli parties in the coalition, they should at least include more in their member lists, so that the get seats in the knesset and minsters in the cabinet (ie labor getting 94% of the Israeli-Arab vote shows that they should have at least some arab-Israelis on their member lists, high enough so they can realistically have seats in Knesset) ""
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/culture/2012/12/the-power-of-attaraction.html#
sabbat hunter
(6,828 posts)will compromise on the old city of Jerusalem either.
Eastern portions of Jerusalem, outside of the old city, can go to a Palestine. And if they choose to make that their capital that would be their right.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)I don't think that is controversial standing, with the exception of Israeli government and U.S.
sabbat hunter
(6,828 posts)was intended to be internationalized.
the Arab leadership back in 1948 rejected the partition plan. That does not mean it automatically becomes theirs to rule. Remember prior to 1948 there was never an independent state of Palestine. It was always a province of one empire or another.
areas outside the old city can be the Palestinian capital and still be in east Jerusalem
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)under international law..all 15 jurists of the ICJ are unified on that front. East Jerusalem is occupied
territory..but that does not mean the Old City would not be shared with Israel's sovereignty including
the Western wall, that they develop agreements together. I do believe that was the understanding going
back many years.
sabbat hunter
(6,828 posts)But right now I would not trust the PA leadership with complete political control over the old city. Too many in their leadership have denied that Jews have any right to pray at the wailing wall, going as far as to say that it was never a holy site for Jews until the Balfour declaration, and that the wall is part of the al-asqa mosque, Jews do not belong there.
At least under Israeli political control all religions have been allowed to pray at the various holy sites.
Israeli
(4,148 posts)From Meretz's Party Platform: ....
In Jerusalem there will be two capitals for two countries side by side. Because a barrier cannot be constructed on the Green Line in Jerusalem, a wall should not be built at all inside Jerusalem.
Meretz Spokesman, Ran Cohen:
We oppose unconditionally construction in the E-1 area, which we believe will certainly lead to disaster and the opening of wounds that will not bring about a solution, but rather hard clashes.
East Jerusalem: Our stance is that the Palestinian areas do not need to remain under Israels control, but rather should be used as the capital of Palestine. West Jerusalem will be the permanent capital of the state of Israel. I believe that the two capitals side by side will create political and municipal stability.
Old City: The Old City has to be in the consensus, and the holy places will belong to both sides. The Temple Mount will remain open to Israelis. We believe that it needs to be open to the whole world. The Jewish Quarter will remain under Israeli control, the Muslim Quarter will be under Palestinian control, and control over the other two quarters will be decided upon through an agreement that will deal with the area by geographic terms.
Separation barrier: From the outset, the separation fence was a mistake. It is not possible to have a wall in the heart of a city. This is a crazy thing that creates today tremendous damage to the Palestinians. "
That leaves Labor and Hatunah ....and I would not bet on them either sabbat hunter...neither does the Right or otherwise why would they propose a bill requiring a two-thirds majority in the Knesset for negotiations to divide Jerusalem ?????
ref : http://www.israelandstuff.com/knesset-committee-okay-bill-mandating-23-majority-for-dividing-jerusalem
Israeli
(4,148 posts)" Therein lies another problem with the Israeli left: it doesn't really do equality. As Sami Michael (who is also president of the Association for Civil Rights in Israel) points out in the TV documentary, this should be the starting point of any leftwing party. While the right dominates identity politics with its ultra-patriotic Jewish nationalism, the supposed left can't provide a more inclusive, democratic alternative.
As Anat Saragusti, director of the social change communications centre Agenda explains: "My Israeli nationality is much larger and broader than my Jewish nationality. I have more in common with Arab citizens of Israel than with Jews in Guatemala or New York." A truly leftwing party would rise above the choking patriotism test of Jewish ethnocentrism and find a better alternative. "
So do we post zionists ....we are the alternative to " the choking patriotism test of Jewish ethnocentrism " ......all we need is our own party ...or perhaps we should all give up on Meretz and vote Hadash next time around .
sabbat hunter
(6,828 posts)might be needed for a coalition, but I did not include them in the potential union party because of their platform are unlikely to compromise enough join. Additionally, Hadash would probably prefer to remain either in opposition or use their leverage as a separate party in a coalition, than give up some of their core principals.
Israeli
(4,148 posts)you are going to have to include Hadash and the Arab parties ..... think about it sabbat hunter ...you need 61 seats ....at this point in time you have 42 ... where are the other 19 seats going to come from ??
sabbat hunter
(6,828 posts)a unified center left party will draw more votes than they would individually (and thus get more than 42 seats).
As a unified front they would energize many center-left voters who have been sitting out recent elections, and increase their overall vote total.
Israeli
(4,148 posts)but totally unrealistic .....they might get more than 42 seats.. but 61 ???
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)We have our share of corruption and wackos too..our election process is riddled with
special interest/corporate money and the domestic/foreign legislation that comes from that has
been destructive..some cases, beyond measure.
Israeli
(4,148 posts)but totally unrealistic ....for a start there will be no Kadima party in the next elections , thats guaranteed .
Have you seen the latest poll ?
Here : http://knessetjeremy.com/category/knesset/polls/
The parties you mention above between them this month total only 42 seats .
What is your reason for not including Hadash in your coalition ?
.......and the Arab parties , what about them ??
sabbat hunter
(6,828 posts)the combined Likud Yisrael Beiteinu would do better than they did.
Additionally, I think if they split back up, there will be a lot of bitterness between the two, which will cause both not to do as well as they are currently polling. Also, as a result of being a unified party, the center-left would gather up more seats that is currently polled due to more people in Israel being fired up to vote (a lot of the center-left in Israel have been sitting out of voting due to apathy with the parties)
As for the Arab parties, AFAIK no coalition government has included the Arab-Israeli parties. Some of the current members of the Arab-Israeli parties worry me, especially Haneen Zoabi, who has publicly supported Iran getting nuclear weapons (I do not trust the mullahs running Iran with that power), and identifies as a Palestinian not an Israeli-Arab.
I also believe that parties that are exclusive like the arab-Israeli parties, are not helpful to a government (like United Torah and Shas who have male only member lists)