AP Analysis: Mideast crisis a strategic stalemate

[bemildred]

If the Israel-Hamas fighting feels like a rerun, that's because it is.

This is the third round of Hamas rockets and Israel airstrikes since the Islamic militant group seized control of the Gaza Strip in 2007. And issues each time seem much the same: How can Hamas be compelled to stop firing rockets? Does Israel really have the will to reconquer a Hamas-ruled Gaza and oust the militants? Can the world tolerate Israel reacting with far deadlier force than the rockets themselves, as evidenced in the hugely lopsided casualty count that each time appears anew?

This round of violence came after peace talks collapsed, Israel tried to scuttle a Palestinian unity government and violence ratcheted up. With the Gazans now suffering more, one might expect internal pressure on Hamas to end the rocket fire, which would likely bring the airstrikes to a stop. But in a region where honor is key, and with the two sides not talking, outside mediation is badly needed for a mutually face-saving cease-fire.

In a strategic stalemate where neither side seems able to accept or defeat the other, here are some key issues at play:

http://www.goupstate.com/article/20140713/APA/307139843

[The Magistrate]

1. Not A Bad Analysis, Sir

[bemildred]

2. Fair, I thought.

Perhaps a little too rational to really do it justice, but more or less the way I would bet, if asked to bet on it. Another grinding ratchet downwards in the status quo ante. Mr. Indyk seems to have finally noticed that this sort of military theatrics props up the "leaders" on both sides.

[shaayecanaan]

3. Hamas is broke

and I suspect that this is their last hurrah. If they don't fire their rockets now they might never get the chance again. The Turks are the only funding that Hamas has left. I don't think that this latest war will impress them.

Iron Dome is much-lauded and probably has some effect. But the rockets were never militarily effective for the most part. Most of the deaths have been in Sderot and its surrounds, as it is the one town both big enough and close enough to reliably hit. The fortification of buildings in Sderot is probably the real reason that there have been no casualties. Hamas has been successfully landing rockets in Sderot, its just that those rockets are not causing deaths any more.

Israel won't invade, or if they do it will be a limited affair.

Perversely, Israel probably prefers that Hamas remain in charge of the Gaza strip. A Fatah takeover would dramatically enhance relations with Egypt and the full re-opening of the border crossing at Rafah, and possibly lead to a situation where Gaza can function without the imprimatur of the Israelis. Israel would prefer to keep Gaza functioning at a very low level.

[Scootaloo]

4. I've long held that Israel's current government has no real interest in toppling Hamas

Hamas doesn't present nearly the danger to israel that Israel's government claims, and it makes a good stick with which to bludgeon the rest of Palestine and those who support the Palestinians - as we see here Regularly, where if you support Palestinians in any way you are a nefarious Hamas double-agent or something.

Hamas is a very valuable foreign policy tool for the Netanyahu government.

[shaayecanaan]

5. yes, that's the other reason

The existence of hamas provides Israel with an ongoing moral alibi for the occupation. Who would want to do a way with that?