Why Everyone Seems to Have Cancer

[elleng]

Though not exactly consoling, the fact that we have reached this standoff is a kind of success. A century ago average life expectancy at birth was in the low to mid-50s. Now it is almost 79, and if you make it to 65 you’re likely to live into your mid-80s. The median age of cancer death is 72. We live long enough for it to get us.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/05/sunday-review/why-everyone-seems-to-have-cancer.html?hp&rref=opinion&_r=0

[wercal]

1. There seems to be a misunderstanding of historical life expectancy numbers

The commonly cited life expectancy numbers are life expectancy...at birth.

For example, in 1930, it was 58 for men and 62 for women.

However, this number is so low, because of a high infant mortality rate...and childhood mortality rate. Once a person got to age 21, his odds of reaching 65 were better than half.

This explanation from the SSA explains it better than I can:

http://www.ssa.gov/history/lifeexpect.html

Bottom line - yes we are living longer than ever before...but not by an extraordinary number of years.

Anyway, longevity is not a new thing. I would not attribute a high cancer rate purely to longevity. Environmental factors still matter.

[TexasProgresive]

2. Back in the 50s it was statistically improbable to die of cancer

if you lived 30 miles outside of town. You likely died of some other cause that could've been treated by a doctor/hospital if you lived closer.

Who was it that said, "There are 3 kinds of lies, lies, damn lies and statistics." maybe Mark Twain.

[elleng]

3. Wha???

[TexasProgresive]

5. Most people who lived 30 miles from town

were farmers, which is a dangerous occupation. Treatable injuries become untreatable with delay. Does that make sense?

[elleng]

6. Yes. Better. Thanks.

My mother died of cancer in the early '50s in NYC. Clearly, diagnoses and treatments have changed since then.

(My father lived to 98, just passed 2 years ago, of old age. In small town Iowa.)

[phylny]

7. My mom died of inflammatory breast cancer in 1988.

The life expectancy for this type of cancer was something like 2% after two years or something abysmal like that. Of course, she'd never had a mammogram.

I'm having a breast biopsy this week for suspicious looking specks on my right breast. If it's cancer, it's really really early (or so the radiologist said). I'm just grateful I have insurance and that I've gone for yearly mammograms since age 35.

[elleng]

8. Best wishes to you.

[phylny]

9. Thanks, elleng.

I'm pretty peaceful about it. If it's something, I'll deal with it. If not, I'll be grateful

[Soundman]

4. I don't believe a word of it.

I get so tired of hearing we are living longer. That is total bull shit. We are not, not as individuals anyway. All I have to do is look back at my genealogy to see this is a lie. Until the industrial revolution came to town my family members mostly lived into their early 90's. Since the late 1800's it has been in a slow decline. At 60 my brother is the longest lived male in our ancestral line in the past 80 or so years. It is total non sense to believe a human beings body will only last 30-50 years as a matter of standard. I have documentation to disprove that.

Now to the cancers. Years upon years of open air nuclear testing might have a lot to do with it. Maybe adding the most prolific poison ever made by man to our water supply isn't helping either. Not too mention some VERY dirty tricks our own govt has played on us in the name of national security. Like dumping cadmium dust over the twin cities and not telling anyone. Then they wonder why there was/is a spike in prostate cancers there.

I remember reading an article as a child where it was claimed that the first known cancerous lung should have been preserved because they didn't think they would ever see another one like it. Weird how the rare has become so common and how easily people can be conditioned to believe the unbelievable.

[Quantess]

10. He pulled this opinion piece out of... well... out of thin air.

What makes him qualified to assert his opinion on cancer?
How about we just ask Dr Phil, why don't we? /sarcasm

[SheilaT]

11. First off, not everyone seems to have cancer.

Second, it is important to understand that average life expectancy really is calculated from birth, so when infant and child mortality is high, you get a low average life expectancy, even if those who make it past infancy generally live to 60 or more.

I just got done reading a couple of books looking at exactly this issue. Guess what? Cancer has been around at least since the dinosaurs, and careful research of old bodies gives cancer rates essentially identical to those today.

And yes, living long enough greatly increases the chances of getting cancer, any kind of cancer.

The two books, by the way, are The Cancer Chronicles by George Johnson. That's the one that looks at ancient incidence of cancer. Basically, all evidence out there indicates that aside from not smoking, there's not an awful lot an individual can do to absolutely prevent getting cancer. The other is Paleofantasy by Marlene Zuk, and it contains an excellent brief explanation of life expectancy.

[elleng]

12. Thanks for this, SheilaT.

George Johnson wrote the article in the OP.