Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

[geckosfeet]

Have not seen this posted yet. Fascinating information.

Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades.

....



....

Despite national attention to the issue of firearm violence, most Americans are unaware that gun crime is lower today than it was two decades ago. According to a new Pew Research Center survey, today 56% of Americans believe gun crime is higher than 20 years ago and only 12% think it is lower.

....

Mass shootings are a matter of great public interest and concern. They also are a relatively small share of shootings overall. According to a Bureau of Justice Statistics review, homicides that claimed at least three lives accounted for less than 1% of all homicide deaths from 1980 to 2008. These homicides, most of which are shootings, increased as a share of all homicides from 0.5% in 1980 to 0.8% in 2008, according to the bureau’s data. A Congressional Research Service report, using a definition of four deaths or more, counted 547 deaths from mass shootings in the U.S. from 1983 to 2012.

Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

So we have more guns than ever before and gun crime rates are down... The piece offers some hand waving theories and semi-explanations for this at the wrap up, but nothing they are willing to commit to and nothing definitive.

In general I find it fascinating that the general perception of gun crime is just the opposite of what is stated in the piece.

[krispos42]

1. If it doesn't bleed, it doesn't lead

n/t

[Eleanors38]

14. Damn, Krispos is fast. The quality of local T.V. news is beyond abysmal...

It is singularly and unabashedly deceptive and propagandist. I don't recall any outlet reporting that the weapon used most for homicides in Austin, Texas in 2011 was "knife/sharp-edged instrument." That didn't fit the narrative, either.

[krispos42]

22. It just so happened...

...that Fark ran the article I quoted from the same day the OP came out.

[morningfog]

2. Great news, but we still have sooooo much further to go.

Less guns will help us reduce it further.

[gejohnston]

3. you mean fewer

although the number of guns won't make a difference. Crime rates, or perceived crime rates, affect some gun sales, casual gun owners that buy one just for home protection and it sits in the sock drawer for decades, which has nothing to do with gun culture or shooting sports.
IOW, crime affects gun sales, not the reverse.

[geckosfeet]

4. In theory, but the data indicate that it is possible to reduce gun crime

while increasing the number of guns. Not intuitive, but there it is.

The number of firearms available for sale to or possessed by U.S. civilians (about 310 million in 2009, according to the Congressional Research Service) has grown in recent years, and the 2009 per capita rate of one person per gun had roughly doubled since 1968. It is not clear, though, how many U.S. households own guns or whether that share has changed over time.

Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

[morningfog]

5. The data does not show that reduction

In firearms would increase crime. Reduction in firearms would reduce firearm crimes even more, as we still have so far to go. No one should be happy with the current rates.

[geckosfeet]

6. The data does show a reduction in gun crime. That's what

the whole article is saying.

It also says that the number of guns in the country has increased at the same time that crime rates have decreased.

Not saying there is causation, but there is clear correlation.

[Newest Reality]

7. Public unaware!

Public unaware.

That's the actual definition of the force and power behind American politics and economics because it could only go on the way it has if the public stays unaware.

It's that plain and simple.

As Mark Twain said, "A true paranoid is a person with all the facts at his disposal."

[msongs]

8. depends on how they define gun crimes and gun homicides really nt

[geckosfeet]

9. The CDC is the source of the crime rate data. Public domain.

[AtheistCrusader]

10. Given that current medical practices make it more likely for you to survive a gunshot today, than

back in '93...

we need an additional dimension to this data for firearms related injuries during the commission of a crime. Otherwise your causation might be 'something else'.

[geckosfeet]

11. The data clearly says firearms violence. Homicide rate is down as well.

Partly due to better ER responses and improved health care.The article discusses possible causes for the observed decreases (towards the end). Improved health care is conspicuously absent.

Imagine better mental health care. Imagine addressing some of the root causes of violence and crime.

[AtheistCrusader]

12. Hm

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1172122293#post14

I'm not going to delve into the data source right now, but maybe later today.

[jmg257]

13. Funny that the downturn co-incides perfectly with the federal AWB.

Which was also part of much larger crime bill.

Wonder if that bill had anything to do with this.

[geckosfeet]

15. It might. See discussion of possible causes for reduction in gun crime at the end of the article.

Also note that the number guns in the country has increased as the gun crime rate has decreased.

Also note that crimes are rarely committed with scary looking black rifles.

[Eleanors38]

17. Doubt it for 2 big reasons:

(1) The sale of semi-auto carbines continued uninterrupted during the whole 10 yrs of the (non)ban.

(2) The so-called "assault weapon" is rarely used in homicides.

Correlation without causation.

[jmg257]

19. Wasn't really talking about the AWB, but the large crime bill it was attached to. nt

[gejohnston]

20. the only thing possible

Would be the BBC since most of the Brady bill was struck down. Not likely since the Wright Rossi study done in the 1980s showed FFLs not a major source. Criminologists have many theories but gun laws don't seem to be one of them.

[Eleanors38]

21. I stand corrected. I'm not sure if the other provisisions

had an effect, but it could still be possible.

[jmg257]

23. Understood. I haven't looked at it all in so long, just seem to recall

there was a ton of good crime fighting stuff in it.
$$ for more cops makes a big diff especially - proven in various cities as the best way to reduce crime.

I don't even know if all that other stuff expired too!??

Cheers!

[gejohnston]

24. I think it was the only part that had a sunset provision

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violent_Crime_Control_and_Law_Enforcement_Act
I'm guessing there are provisions we both disagree with. The cops on the streets is still law, but house GOP can't seem to get around to funding it as it should.

[Eleanors38]

25. From what I've read, the act sun-setted in 2004 with no indication any provision were retained.

"At the same time, President Obama and Democrats haven’t talked about “taking our neighborhoods back.” They have, however, talked about preventing mentally unstable people from obtaining high-powered weapons. In the early 1990s, the public appetite for gun control may have been motivated more strongly by inner-city crime rates, and by the threat of crime in general, and Clinton’s 1994 bill addressed a broader issue of crime and security, marrying things like cop funding and tougher penalties to the sizable pillar of gun control.

"Today, the White House’s mission is much narrower: It’s all about the guns."

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/01/a-lot-has-changed-since-congress-passed-the-assault-weapons-ban/

I guess the workaday provisions of the Act weren't dramatic enough.

[spin]

16. The fact that gun violence has fallen doesn't serve the purpose of either ...

the NRA or gun control advocates.

Both promote fear to gain support.

[Eleanors38]

18. Yep. Gun politics is a necessary staple in the hologram of reality.

[iamthebandfanman]

26. gang murders are down too

'street' gangs here in the united states dont kill each other as much they used to .
in los angeles , for example, gang gun homicides are down from 430 in 1992 to 157 in 2009. the police there credit the decline to a 'fragile peace' among most rival gangs and the fact that most of the violent folks (a lot of whom were gang leaders) they arrested in the 90s are still in prison.
heck, gang murders in the entire united states are down 9.3% in just the last 3 years.. and that's with 1,800 murders related to gangs in 2011 (down from over 2,000 in 2009).

with anything, im sure there are multiple reasons for the over all decline in homicides..

its not as simplistic as my explanation or the 'it must be all the guns everyone has!' one that's others have.. id imagine