DOJ Special Report: Firearm Violence, 1993-2011

[hack89]

Some good information here.

In 2011, a total of 478,400 fatal and nonfatal violent crimes were committed with a firearm (table 1). Homicides made up about 2% of all firearm-related crimes. There were 11,101 firearm homicides in 2011, down by 39% from a high of 18,253 in 1993 (figure 1). The majority of the decline in firearm-related homicides occurred between 1993 and 1998. Since 1999, the number of firearm homicides increased from 10,828 to 12,791 in 2006 before declining to 11,101 in 2011. Nonfatal firearm-related violent victimizations against persons age 12 or older declined 70%, from 1.5 million in 1993 to 456,500 in 2004 (figure 2) . The number then fluctuated between about 400,000 to 600,000 through 2011.

While the number of firearm crimes declined over time, the percentage of all violence that involved a firearm did not change substantively, fluctuating between 6% and 9% over the same period. In 1993, 9% of all violence was committed with a firearm, compared to 8% in 2011.

http://bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf

[SecularMotion]

1. What happened in 1993?

Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act

The Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act (Pub.L. 103–159, 107 Stat. 1536, enacted November 30, 1993) is an Act of the United States Congress that instituted federal background checks on firearm purchasers in the United States.

It was signed into law by President Bill Clinton on November 30, 1993, and went into effect on February 28, 1994.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Handgun_Violence_Prevention_Act

[hack89]

2. It also the beginning of a huge expansion of gun rights.

It was the start of the liberalization of state gun laws as seen by the expansion of concealed carry. It was the start of the explosion in popularity of AR-15s and other semiautomatic rifles. It was the start of a legal chain of events that led to Heller.

The Brady Act was an excellent law that has done a lot of good. But it is not the sole reason for the drop in gun violence. The end of the crack epidemic and the expansion of prison populations had just as much to do with it.

[SecularMotion]

3. Stats Show Success of FBI’s Gun Background Check System

To date, NICS queries of criminal databases have resulted in 1,065,090 denials, with 88,479 in 2012 alone.

“The statistics for denials can stand on their own with regards to how well the system works in keeping firearms out of the hands of those who shouldn’t have them,” said Steve Fischer, a spokesman for NICS, which is run by the Bureau’s Criminal Justice Information Services (CJIS) Division in West Virginia.

The most common reasons for denials are prior criminal convictions, domestic violence, drug history, and fugitive status.

http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2013/november/nics-15th-anniversary-stats-show-success-of-gun-background-check-system/nics-15th-anniversary-stats-show-success-of-gun-background-check-system

[hack89]

4. Looks like we have found the right balance

Background checks are good and were effective in reducing gun violence while the expansion of gun ownership and gun rights such as CCW have had no negative effect.

Looks like we have found the right balance - all we need is UBCs and we are all set as gun violence continues to fall.

So what are we fighting over?

[gejohnston]

5. Crime started rising after the 1968 Gun Control Act too

but one has nothing to do with the other. It is called post hoc ergo propter hoc. Part of the problem is how many of those denials were false positives? A law abiding citizen who got 18 months for pot 30 years ago who didn't realize that he was now prohibited for life? Another part of the problem is that, according to James Wright and Robert Rossi, discovered few criminals go to gun shops and fewer go to gun shows. What was it? Baby boomers coming of age. More 17-25 year old males, more crime. Also, the oil companies started putting lead in gasoline in the 1950s, those chickens started to come home to roost because those kids where were poisoned by airborne lead, made the numbers higher.
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/06/the-crime-of-lead-exposure/
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jan/07/violent-crime-lead-poisoning-british-export
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomers
http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2013/01/03/how-lead-caused-americas-violent-crime-epidemic/

FWIW, I support UBC, but I'm realistic about the effectiveness.

[spin]

6. I agree. That's why it would be wise to push for much needed improvements to the NICS ...

background check system such as devising a way to require a background check for every gun purchase in our nation as well as requiring states to input the names of criminals and those legally adjudged as having serious mental issues to the NICS database in a TIMELY fashion.

I feel we would have implemented these improvements had it not been for the overreach by Sen Dianne Fienstein and some other Democrats to pass another assault weapons ban.