Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

[twogunsid]

From bloodhorse.com: By definition, a longshot is considered "a betting interest that is unlikely to win." But when you're playing exacta, trifectas, and superfectas in horse racing, a longshot doesn't have to win, he just needs to finish two through four to help you to cash your ticket.

For the Kentucky Derby especially, because the pools are so immense, all it takes is one longshot to finish "in the money" to cash a big ticket. Of course, you need to find the other correct horse(s) to go with your longshot, but we'll worry about that later. For now, let's focus on trying to find the ones that have the best chance at filling out a winning ticket.

My definition of a longshot for the Derby is anything over 10-1. Obviously, we won't know the final odds until post time, but I'm fairly certain that the four horses below will all be double-digit odds. Here are the ones I think have the best chance at hitting the board on Saturday.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/triplecrowntalk/archive/2012/05/01/four-derby-longshots-worth-considering.aspx

Alpha is probably the best longshot horse in the race IMO. If I can get him at 12-1 I'm gonna take a shot. I think he'll be in the first five finishers. - twg

[trumad]

1. Take Charge Indy

12:1

I always throw FL. Derby winner into the mix--- paid handsomely for me the last several years.

Oh and with Borel riding him ya never know.

[twogunsid]

2. If TCI goes off at 12-1 or better....

he's a good choice. I think he will get some action on Derby Day. There is always some good overlay betting at the Derby. Find your values, set your prices and hope for the best. Lay off that chalk!!!

That goddamn Borel. He's so good at Churchill.

[trumad]

3. He is...

It's a great race ...

[twogunsid]

4. I was just looking up some figures for off tracks...

TCI ran 96 beyers on a sealed track at GP. He was beaten by El Padrino. I don't think El Pad could beat him at the Derby distance.

Alpha hasn't raced on a wet dirt track.

[Kingofalldems]

5. Alpha galloped out after 5 furlongs

Nice.

[twogunsid]

6. He's a good looker isn't he?...

Godolphin has been trying to win the Derby for a long time. They have always trained their Derby horses in Dubai and then shipped them in for the Derby. This year, with Alpha, they trained and ran in 3 stakes at Aqueduct. Alpha hasn't had to deal with the stress of training in the desert then shipping half way around the world.

I'm really not a fan of Godolphin but this might be their Derby winner. I know he's gonna be coming at the end and with the speed in this race he sure has a shot.

[twogunsid]

7. Lukas set for 45th Derby starter with Optimizer....

From thoroughbredtimes.com: No name is more synonymous with the Kentucky Derby (G1) over the last three decades than D. Wayne Lukas. The Racing Hall of Fame trainer was absent in 2011, but figures to be back again this year with his colt Optimizer the beneficiary of the decision by the connections of Mark Valeski not to run.

Trainer Larry Jones made the announcement that Mark Valeski would not run in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby on Tuesday morning, the day after the Proud Citizen colt breezed five furlongs in 1:00.20 and a day earlier than most expected. Jones said he plans to target the Peter Pan Stakes (G2) with the colt, who was second in the Louisiana Derby (G2).

Optimizer now moves into the 20 slot on the graded stakes earnings list that determines the Derby field if more than 20 horses are entered. He has earned $184,708 in graded stakes races. My Adonis, third last time out in the Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes (G1), is now 21st on the list with $140,000.

The connections of My Adonis indicated this week that they plan to enter the Derby when entries are taken Wednesday morning, and if there are no more defections prior to that, the colt would be an also-eligible. He would be permitted to move into the main body of the field if any scratches occur prior to the start of wagering Friday morning.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2012/05/01/lukas-set-for-45th-derby-starter-with-optimizer.aspx

[trumad]

8. Love this Union Rags race....

&feature=relmfu

[twogunsid]

9. Union Rags is the man....

I think he is the one to beat but he not gonna be any kind of a price. I saw pictures of him at Churchill and Holy shit!!! He is muscle on muscle. He had a great work on Saturday and he seems to be in good shape. He has a very good trainer. I really hope he can out run his pedigree. To me it looks like he can.

He'll be the anchor in my exotics.

[trumad]

10. 5:1 is good money on him.

I'm also looking at Gemologist.

Undefeated horses always intrigue me.

In Hand:

Wood Memorial:

Gemologist and Alpha.

&feature=related

[twogunsid]

11. The undefeated horses have done well in the Derby....

in recent years. Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown.

[twogunsid]

12. Behind the Scenes: Blacksmith...

I thought this video by the Hennegan Brothers, the Eclipse Award winning producers of "The First Saturday in May" might be of interest to some of the race fans. Enjoy.

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[trumad]

13. Very cool

Guy makes it look easy.

[PDittie]

14. I'm liking

Bodemeister, Creative Cause, Gemologist, and Daddy Nose Best