Nate Silver: Parity in N.C.A.A. Means No Commanding Favorite

[joeybee12]

Even before the N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament bracket was announced on Sunday, there was plenty of discussion about how much parity there was in this year’s field. The chatter only increased after Louisville, the No. 1 overall seed, was placed in a brutally tough Midwest region that also includes Duke and Michigan State.

This condition is nothing new, however. Parity has been the rule for some time in the N.C.A.A. tournament.

Louisville is in fact the nominal favorite to win the tournament despite its tough draw, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. Still, Louisville has only a 23 percent chance of doing so, just ahead of Indiana at 20 percent.

In 2012, the FiveThirtyEight formula listed Kentucky as the tournament favorite. That call looks prescient since the Wildcats went on to win. Still, the result involved as much luck as skill, since the forecast gave Kentucky just a 27 percent chance of winning, only modestly better than Louisville and Indiana this year.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/18/parity-in-n-c-a-a-means-no-commanding-favorite/

[madinmaryland]

1. CNN still predicting that Boston College has a good chance of winning the Big Dance!

[El Supremo]

2. I'm predicting that ohio state won't make it to the finals to face KANSAS.

They'll be eliminated by New Mexico.

[madinmaryland]

3. You used the phrase "Ohio State"...

So when are changing your avatar? I am surprised you didn't put up the Boise State avatar since they play tomorrow night.

[Botany]

4. Ohio State is playing very well right now.

since losing to Wisconsin they have beaten #4, #9 twice, #10, and #18.
plus they butt whipped a good Illinois team that had crushed them earlier.

Kansas with their size would be very tough for OSU but don't be surprised
if the Buckeyes make a deep run into the tournament.

BTW Akron will beat VCU take that to the bank.

[KamaAina]

6. You do know Akron's star point guard got busted for pot, right?

Without him, archrival Kent State ran them out of their own building at the end of the regular season. The annoucner summed it up: "Without him, they just didn't have that Zip."

[Botany]

7. yes against KSU they didn't look good but ....

.... by the end of the MAC tourny they were playing very well w/ the #2
point guard starting. Treadwell and Marshall are beasts.

[KamaAina]

8. Well, VCU managed to pull that one out

by 46. Biggest 5-12 rout in tourney history.

[Botany]

10. It was much closer then the score showed

It was the perfect storm ...... starting point guard out, his replacement having back spasms,
one starter in the hospital getting 5 bags of fluids to make up for his loss of fluids by being up
puking all night, Akron's #7 guy down with the flu too, and VCU being a very good team too.

I went and watched a different Akron team play Ohio U in Athens, OH a few weeks ago and that
team that played VCU last night was not the same team .... although even if Akron was at full
strength I don't know if they could have played w/ that VCU team I saw last night.

[frylock]

5. been watching the lobos all year..

I picked THE ohio state to beat them.

[KamaAina]

9. Looks like THE Harvard beat them to it.

[bluedigger]

11. The West is not liking those Northeast teams much.

Go Iona!

[JonLP24]

12. I think Iona is a good team

They played BYU tough last year but I think they were much strong offensively. I don't think they'll win but they'll cover the 14-pt spread but it'll be very close.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. couldn't find where Nate did the Women. Boo Nate

[bluedigger]

14. Nate doesn't go that way.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

15. Haha. Wish women's NCAA wasn't tombstoned so much. Geesh - ESPN website

doesn't ever give it it's own icon on the menu bar - you have to dig through "Other" to find it.

Sounds like people in New England need to organize a protest in Bristol

[bluedigger]

16. Try finding college hockey news.

There's even women's college hockey. I believe they are already running their Frozen Four, but ESPN wouldn't know.

Yup.

http://www.boston.com/sports/colleges/womens-basketball/2013/03/23/boston-university-skates-for-women-hockey-title-sunday/ltNWL06L0Cpxv3xwikTXUN/story.html

Filed as a substory to women's basketball, I see.