Marcus Mariota Is Projected To Be Better Than Jameis Winston

[joeybee12]

We’ve heard the debate for so long that its edges have nearly gone dull: Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota? Who should go first?

If there were a formula for how to choose a No. 1 quarterback in the NFL draft, Tom Brady would have gone No. 1 overall and JaMarcus Russell would have been lucky to be selected 199th. This stuff is hard, especially when you consider the stakes. Missing on a first-round quarterback can set a franchise back for years. Because of the “boom or bust” nature of the position, selecting a quarterback, particularly in the first round, is riskier than selecting a player in any other position.

What, then, to do about Winston versus Mariota this Thursday? Build a model, of course. This year, ESPN’s Production Analytics crew created a QB model to help teams reduce the risk of drafting the wrong quarterback. Like all models, this one had a few outliers, but it would have predicted that Andrew Luck would be the top QB in the last three draft classes, that Russell Wilson would be far better than his third-round grade, and that first-rounders Brandon Weeden and EJ Manuel would be below-average quarterbacks — and of course that’s without using those years of data to fit the model.1 The model’s opinion on this year’s top two: Mariota — not Winston — is the top prospect.

The goal of the model is to predict a player’s Total Quarterback Rating over his first four years in the league, which is generally the length of his rookie contract. The main inputs into the projections were a player’s college stats (adjusted for defenses faced),2 combine/physical measurements, scout grades and play-type frequencies in college. After determining which factors mattered most,3 the model projected a player’s NFL success in four categories — on passing plays, on running plays, how many sacks he’s likely to take, and how many penalties he’s likely to incur — over his first four seasons. These play-type projections and how often each play is expected to occur4 were combined to produce the QBR projections.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/marcus-mariota-is-projected-to-be-better-than-jameis-winston/

Hmmm...didn't take into account alleged rapes and prosecution for theft...wonder if those would be plus or minuses...hard to tell with the NFL.

[mythology]

1. Based on his inability to not do stupid things,

Winston is an idiot. Not quite as dumb as the guy who got busted for pot this week in terms of timing, but Winston has a string of "mistakes" to one degree or another that makes me think he won't last long in the NFL.

There is an interesting theory that part of the problem Aaron Hernandez faced in New England was being so close to his home area in terms of negative influences. I wonder if that would be a problem for Winston going from Tallahassee to Tampa Bay?

[hughee99]

2. Neither will be successful in Tampa, Jacksonville or Oakland.

This could easily turn into the "Who' s better, David Carr or Joey Harrington" debate if they both end up on two shitty teams and are forced into starting roles before they're ready (as often happens).

[KamaAina]

3. You just compared Oakland to Florida Man's home towns!

Thanks for nothing!!!

[hughee99]

4. Sorry about that, but I think all three franchises have proven their inability

to develop a young QB. I would have thrown in Cleveland, but both these guys will be off the board before they pick.