How religion played in the midterm elections

[cbayer]

http://marksilk.religionnews.com/2014/11/05/how-religion-played-in-the-midterm-elections/

Mark Silk | Nov 5, 2014


Ballot Box/Wikipedia

Simply put, the more things changed, the more they stayed the same. According to yesterday’s exit polls, the religious layout of the electorate looks almost identical to the last midterm election in 2010, and not much different from the 2012 presidential election.

In 2010, Protestants voted Republican 59 percent to 38 percent, this time it was 60-38. (White Protestants went from 69-28 to 71-27.) As for Catholics, it was 54-44 Republican in 2010, 53-45 this year, with white Catholics staying at exactly 59-39. For the Nones, it was 68-30 in 2010 and 69-29 this year. The only significant difference from 2012 came among Catholics, who that year voted narrowly Democratic, 50-48. At 57-42, Protestants were only marginally less Republican.

The one group that appears to have shifted significantly compared to the last midterm were members of “other religions” — Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, Sikhs, etc. In 2010, three out of four voted Democratic, while this time around it was two out of three. And given that their proportion of the vote increased from 8 percent to 11 percent, that was not a trivial number of votes.

You’re wrong, however, if you think that this shift came from Jewish voters disillusioned with the Democratic Party. Jews voted Democratic by 65-33 yesterday, as compared to 66-31 in 2010. Its the other Others who shifted.

- See more at: http://marksilk.religionnews.com/2014/11/05/how-religion-played-in-the-midterm-elections/#sthash.mNgtZaU1.dpuf

[meadowlark5]

1. Why would muslims vote republican?

Am I reading that correctly? Muslims and Sikhs broke for republicans? Repubs make no bones about hating muslims and Sikhs probably look like muslims to the average republican - why in hell would they think the republicans will take good care of them?

[cbayer]

2. You are reading that correctly.

The one group that appears to have shifted significantly compared to the last midterm were members of “other religions” — Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, Sikhs, etc. In 2010, three out of four voted Democratic, while this time around it was two out of three. And given that their proportion of the vote increased from 8 percent to 11 percent, that was not a trivial number of votes.

They don't break it down further, though. I'm not sure why they switched so significantly.

[LeftishBrit]

10. Note that it's still a large majority voting for Democrats..

If 2/3 of all groups voted Dem, there would be no problem.

I would guess that one reason for a slight decrease in the Democratic vote among non-Jewish 'others' is that many of them would come from immigrant backgrounds, especially South Asia, and (like British Asians) are becoming increasingly prosperous as time goes by and they establish themselves in their adopted country. This can somewhat increase the vote for right-wing parties - but let's once again note that it's hardly a huge shift to the right.

[cbayer]

12. It is still a strong majority and I am glad for that, but

the shift is worrisome and can't be dismissed as having played a role in this election.

I don't think a shift from 75% to 67% is a slight decrease, particularly in light of the overall increase in the total number of voters in this group.

Not huge, but not insignificant.

[muriel_volestrangler]

14. The figure is 2/3rds voting Democratic, and that's all the 'other religion' category

CNN reports it as 8% other in 2014 (not including Jewish), of whom 67% voted Dem, 31% Repub. Their equivalent figures in 2010 were 8% (the same - RNS has mistakenly compared the 2010 number not including Jewish with the 2014 number that does include Jewish), and the split was 74% Dem, 24% Repub.

NBC reports 2014 in 2 ways: a 'something else' of 8% that includes Muslims and splits 67%/31% (ie exactly the same as the CNN figure), and an 'other' that doesn't include Muslims (but still 8%), and that splits 65%/32%, giving the separate Muslim figure as 1% (but unable to give a D/R split for it, because there were too few for a meaningful figure to be given). Which shows that Muslims must have voted a bit more for Dems than the general 'other' group did.

But it doesn't show that any of Muslims, Sikhs, Hindus, Buddhists or whoever goes in that group voted more for Republicans than Democrats. It's possible one or more did, but there's no evidence for it.

[cbayer]

15. Excellent analysis and correction, as usual, muriel.

And that does make more sense.

I hope that they will correct.

Do you thinkI should self delete this in light of the erroneous information?

[muriel_volestrangler]

17. Up to you; since it's so near the limits of their accuracy, I'm not sure much can be concluded

I'd say the main message is that overall, the groups split roughly the way they did before.

[cbayer]

18. I will leave it and refer to your post if an explanation is needed.

Agree that the message is that religion played just about the same role as it has previously.

[Goblinmonger]

3. Well, religion got a pro-life amendment passed in Tennessee

So yippee for that, I guess.

[cbayer]

4. No yippee at all. In fact, this article is very discouraging overall.

It looks like all kinds of religious people are fleeing the democratic party. I'm not sure why that is, but I could speculate.

BTW, your link doesn't work for me, but my connection is very, very bad right now.

[trotsky]

5. And I'm sure we all know what your speculation is.

Horrid atheists expressing their opinions about religion, right? Scaring people away from the Democratic Party into the open, loving arms of the Republicans.

Go ahead, throw us under the bus. Just as many Democrats did to LGBTQ folks in the 90s. It was bullshit then, and it's bullshit now. The more things change, the more things stay the same.

[beam me up scottie]

8. Are you fucking serious?

Are you actually going to blame atheists for the election results?

That's as despicable as blaming gays or racial minorities.

But it's business as usual for the anti-atheist bigots.

[theHandpuppet]

11. Um... maybe I'm misinterpreting your post

Did you forget the sarcasm tag, perhaps?

[beam me up scottie]

16. Yes.

Goblinmonger is probably as angry as I am about Amendment 1.

[theHandpuppet]

20. Okay, sorry about that

I'm still a little loopy from being up half the night.

[beam me up scottie]

22. Yeah, it was a long night.

Mr bmus had to drag me out of bed today, he was worried about me.

How are you holding up?

[cbayer]

19. I am quite certain that he meant it sarcastically.

[theHandpuppet]

21. Yep, I'm just tired and not thinking clearly

I was so pissed off last night I barely got any sleep.

[cbayer]

23. I completely avoided last night and was able to be pissed off after

a full nights sleep and with the complete sobriety that morning brings.

I am also living out of the country which makes the sting much less intense in a way that is hard to explain, but I will try not to gloat about.

I hope you have a good night's sleep tonight and wake up with rosie the riveter's passion and determination.

[Warren Stupidity]

6. Obviously religion is a force for progressive change.

[trotsky]

7. Well Warren, it WOULD be...

if not for those pesky atheists criticizing religion on the Internet!

Because unfortunately the commitment that the religious have for liberal issues is completely and utterly trumped by comments on an anonymous message board. That causes them to instantly dump all support for progressive politics and embrace Republicans.

Shame on us!

[beam me up scottie]

9. Nice, eh?

Yes, it's our fault.

We cost the Democrats the election.

Again.

[MellowDem]

13. Good news is...

This mid term seemed to just be about turn out, there isn't a fundamental shift rightward overall, and Republicans always do better in low turnout elections. As for the shift among Muslims etc., I wonder if Obama's foreign policy has to do with that (of course Repubs would be even worse, but lots of people just ignorantly vote the one other party when dissatisfied with the first, out two party system sucks).